Us Midterms · resolved market
John Ratcliffe confirmed as director of the CIA?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9b787bfcb614217a1c956f5d527f82652fde1b84ad67671597be423e110f2012
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $78,381
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $89,174
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $78,381 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x51fd…4272backed No | 4c | 6,147$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.72 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | +3.8wins | +0.11per pick | 15cpaid | +300.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8a7d…d5ddbacked No | 8c | 4,107$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4558…a2b3backed No | 4c | 2,920$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.82 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -31%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36cc…8642backed No | 5c | 2,726$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.44 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 12cpaid | +137.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 4c | 2,623$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.17 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +59.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ebb…b114backed No | 9c | 2,131$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb052…ff06backed No | 2c | 1,230$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 4c | 1,201$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.75 | 341 | 29.3%100 W · 241 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c7…fc4cbacked No | 9c | 1,055$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.34 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | +60.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08fe…98ffbacked No | 7c | 999.64$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.57 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 17cpaid | +207%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb293…cb90backed No | 4c | 982.12$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.72 | 55 | 10.9%6 W · 49 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eea…281dbacked No | 7c | 925$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.7 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +242.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked No | 3c | 515.64$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.83 | 39 | 5.1%2 W · 37 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 7cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x371a…34b0backed No | 4c | 514.54$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.7 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 2cpaid | +41%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1414…53c3backed No | 7c | 499.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1049…0189backed No | 8c | 498.29$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27f3…73e5backed No | 7c | 299.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x928f…9c61backed No | 9c | 277.78$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbb6…4c0bbacked No | 9c | 272$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed No | 7c | 250$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.98 | 154 | 45.5%70 W · 84 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe077…8ee3backed No | 15c | 241$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.15 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +2.4wins | +0.15per pick | 10cpaid | +93.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb7fa…de00backed No | 11c | 232.82$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.63 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 16cpaid | +74.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- John Ratcliffe confirmed as director of the CIA?this page
- Doug Collins confirmed as Secretary of Veterans Affairs?Yes won
- Brooke Rollins confirmed as Agriculture Secretary?Yes won
- Elise Stefanik confirmed as UN ambassador?No won
- Kash Patel confirmed as Director of the FBI?Yes won
- Lee Zeldin confirmed as Administrator of the EPA?Yes won
- Lori Chavez-DeRemer confirmed as Labor Secretary?Yes won
- Marco Rubio confirmed as Secretary of State?Yes won
- Matt Gaetz confirmed as Attorney General?No won
- Mehmet Oz confirmed as Medicare and Medicaid Administrator?Yes won
- Mike Huckabee confirmed as ambassador to Israel?Yes won
- Pam Bondi confirmed as Attorney General?Yes won
- Pete Hegseth confirmed as Secretary of Defense?Yes won
- RFK Jr. confirmed as Health & Human Services Secretary?Yes won
- Russell Vought confirmed as OMB Director?Yes won
- Scott Turner confirmed as HUD Secretary?Yes won
- Tulsi Gabbard confirmed as Director of National Intelligence?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.