TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Midterms · resolved market

Lori Chavez-DeRemer confirmed as Labor Secretary?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,203,871
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,004,762

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,203,871 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x542a…a81bbacked No1c97,523$1,052 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,052.253414.7%5 W · 29 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick12cpaid+65.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x90a8…b139backed No1c75,300$527 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$527.1425%1 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.24per pick1cpaid+2,677.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1d37…f4a4backed No2c49,687$991 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$990.77156.7%1 W · 14 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick5cpaid+326.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c74…cc9fbacked No4c42,500$1,488 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,487.540%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b93…ee1cbacked No0c40,199$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7567…4981backed No1c28,100$281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99a1…b0c3backed No1c24,096$262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262.25442.3%1 W · 43 L+0.1wins0.00per pick2cpaid+96.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb6be…fcfebacked No2c19,616$428 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$428.373915.4%6 W · 33 L-2.2wins-0.06per pick21cpaid-25.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed No2c18,463$451 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$450.963525.7%9 W · 26 L+3.8wins+0.11per pick15cpaid+300.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd673…0c20backed No2c18,300$293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$292.8425%1 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.24per pick1cpaid+2,677.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc613…662bbacked No1c15,764$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.531320.8%1 W · 131 L+0.5wins0.00per pick0cpaid+60.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…4c40backed No3c12,672$332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$331.732516%4 W · 21 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick21cpaid-21.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed No3c12,590$339 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$339.375540%22 W · 33 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+92.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked No2c12,417$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270.38452.2%1 W · 44 L-3.1wins-0.07per pick9cpaid+90.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xeaf1…c04bbacked No2c11,656$254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253.53333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick14cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0dfa…c0e3backed No0c10,587$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.76260%0 W · 26 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf7c…f2cbbacked No1c9,914$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.12per pick5cpaid+1,840.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf1fc…0ec1backed No2c9,902$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.141888.9%16 W · 2 L+3.7wins+0.21per pick68cpaid+18.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x5a5e…c869backed No2c8,422$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.46366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick51cpaid-11%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb36…09f3backed No1c8,000$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.2140%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1ac…08d5backed No2c6,371$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.673737.8%14 W · 23 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-31.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5754…e515backed No3c5,208$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.465836.2%21 W · 37 L-0.1wins0.00per pick36cpaid-12.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2cac…6fa7backed No2c4,745$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.1333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-44.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x31fc…4e30backed No6c4,640$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-64.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x339e…e092backed No1c4,010$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No4c3,722$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.534129.3%100 W · 241 L-11.3wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-25.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfb27…4db3backed No2c3,000$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51195.3%1 W · 18 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick8cpaid-91.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaf93…80f0backed No1c2,651$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.9750%0 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf38d…52a2backed No4c2,547$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5da1…980bbacked No1c2,245$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.1810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f6b…fba5backed No1c2,222$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201225%3 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-67.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x36cc…8642backed No5c2,124$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.11118.2%2 W · 9 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick12cpaid+137.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6dc0…699abacked No3c2,071$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.1380%0 W · 8 L-1.9wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xfcb0…c865backed No19c1,917$371 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$371.314037.5%15 W · 25 L+0.1wins0.00per pick37cpaid-24.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a89…2ba2backed No3c1,796$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb293…cb90backed No5c1,453$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.325510.9%6 W · 49 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick9cpaid+39.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5446…18f6backed Yes79c1,323$1,041 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$281.626038.3%23 W · 37 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-23.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x745a…64e8backed No3c735.59$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.35296.9%2 W · 27 L-5.0wins-0.17per pick24cpaid-80.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xf27a…c608backed No2c692.63$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.1110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf971…8ef1backed No4c650$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.95425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-62.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa5b0…8e0dbacked No2c582.49$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.6110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x108c…7d81backed No8c582.47$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.83366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.23per pick44cpaid+14.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4344…f90dbacked No2c574.47$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.714630.4%14 W · 32 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick32cpaid+9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x81ab…e2edbacked No3c573.47$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.1620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xb7af…8f92backed No3c566.47$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.8220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xad85…78fcbacked No5c548.73$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251136.4%4 W · 7 L+2.1wins+0.19per pick17cpaid+40.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xba05…f8c0backed No3c348$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4370%0 W · 7 L-1.7wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3f3b…1d77backed No12c334.24$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.475433.3%18 W · 36 L+2.7wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-10.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe0a2…a349backed No9c325$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.52733.3%9 W · 18 L-1.9wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-24.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6b20…68bdbacked No7c280$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.7240%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd737…71bbbacked No11c249.98$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.91442.9%6 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick38cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb7fa…de00backed No13c193.85$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.2128.3%1 W · 11 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick16cpaid+74.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfb81…1cf3backed Yes33c181.83$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.371533.3%5 W · 10 L+3.1wins+0.20per pick13cpaid+79.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5e73…6697backed No7c160.67$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.832040%8 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-24.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1581…6cadbacked No11c147.26$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.21323.1%3 W · 10 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+77.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x18a7…d21abacked No12c141$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.43395.1%2 W · 37 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick7cpaid+6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x260d…9679backed No14c121.24$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.393432.4%11 W · 23 L-1.9wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-22%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No13c89.83$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.0845035.1%158 W · 292 L-37.8wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-26.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.