TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Midterms · resolved market

Kash Patel confirmed as Director of the FBI?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,746,033
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,293,935

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,746,033 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 348 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1d37…f4a4backed No2c178,540$3,092 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,092.16156.7%1 W · 14 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick5cpaid+326.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2023…2d55backed No1c109,131$1,340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,339.62616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick8cpaid+928.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf7c…f2cbbacked No2c96,313$2,215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,214.54616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.12per pick5cpaid+1,840.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x90a8…b139backed No1c51,300$410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$410.4425%1 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.24per pick1cpaid+2,677.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd398…46d7backed No12c49,407$5,983 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,982.624936.7%18 W · 31 L+2.9wins+0.06per pick31cpaid+33.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4cc3…7552backed Yes64c49,366$31,722 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,643.544729.8%14 W · 33 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick29cpaid+4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d41…bf90backed No5c48,430$2,603 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,603.0810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked No3c38,831$1,280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,280.03452.2%1 W · 44 L-3.1wins-0.07per pick9cpaid+90.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb9cc…387abacked No9c37,675$3,458 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,458.062714.8%4 W · 23 L-2.7wins-0.10per pick25cpaid-72.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1cba…6a4cbacked No24c37,343$8,966 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,965.9460%0 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x69e7…d3b0backed No38c28,789$11,052 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,052.325145.1%23 W · 28 L+6.8wins+0.13per pick32cpaid+103%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x8890…79bdbacked No14c28,337$4,072 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,071.732128.6%6 W · 15 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick28cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8795…7544backed No9c21,554$1,940 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,939.864650%23 W · 23 L+7.2wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+32.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xfcb0…c865backed No7c20,780$1,535 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,534.834037.5%15 W · 25 L+0.1wins0.00per pick37cpaid-24.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e5a…4ef5backed Yes78c20,460$16,034 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,426.451968.4%13 W · 6 L+3.3wins+0.18per pick51cpaid+18.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xce86…c0cebacked Yes78c19,844$15,514 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,330.21475%3 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.26per pick49cpaid+56.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed No9c19,806$1,689 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,689.245234.6%18 W · 34 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick35cpaid+0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…4c40backed No10c19,347$1,859 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,858.972516%4 W · 21 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick21cpaid-21.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2370…0e10backed No14c15,854$2,292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,292.435824.1%14 W · 44 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick27cpaid+10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed No9c15,650$1,406 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,406.473525.7%9 W · 26 L+3.8wins+0.11per pick15cpaid+300.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa329…b8ecbacked No21c14,950$3,072 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,071.5510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd1ac…08d5backed No6c14,561$852 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$852.133737.8%14 W · 23 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-31.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x99a1…b0c3backed No2c13,128$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.98442.3%1 W · 43 L+0.1wins0.00per pick2cpaid+96.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc05…ce50backed No5c12,711$616 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$616.3110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xacd9…3d87backed No5c12,212$609 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$609.161338.5%5 W · 8 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-43.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb27…4db3backed No1c11,900$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.99195.3%1 W · 18 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick8cpaid-91.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc658…b784backed Yes63c11,733$7,387 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,346.482045%9 W · 11 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-33.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc613…662bbacked No0c10,720$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.81320.8%1 W · 131 L+0.5wins0.00per pick0cpaid+60.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf4e2…a960backed Yes67c10,643$7,095 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,548.19366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+34.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc5fe…e320backed No6c10,411$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$600520%1 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick31cpaid-74.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x000d…758ebacked No34c10,254$3,495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,494.542152.4%11 W · 10 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick58cpaid-24.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9f86…54d6backed No12c10,000$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,20050%0 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbf05…70dabacked Yes78c9,766$7,574 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,192.11040%4 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-27.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x89ad…b45bbacked No2c9,500$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16440%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked No3c9,426$291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291.171030%3 W · 7 L+1.3wins+0.13per pick17cpaid+1,501.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No16c9,162$1,510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,510.316833.3%56 W · 112 L-8.5wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-26.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x958d…3501backed Yes77c9,142$7,062 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,079.941464.3%9 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick59cpaid-6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1056…2afabacked No4c9,000$387 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38730%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7feb…6612backed No2c8,678$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb293…cb90backed No4c8,294$296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$295.855510.9%6 W · 49 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick9cpaid+39.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f3b…1d77backed No17c7,263$1,230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,230.335433.3%18 W · 36 L+2.7wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-10.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8692…6856backed No2c6,790$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdab1…d307backed No37c6,723$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,500616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.27per pick44cpaid-74.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed No5c5,740$291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$290.625540%22 W · 33 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+92.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc103…1138backed Yes65c5,654$3,652 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,001.914100%4 W · 0 L+1.9wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+135.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x12c0…7bd8backed No28c5,500$1,535 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5351520%3 W · 12 L-1.5wins-0.10per pick30cpaid-69.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0778…f3b7backed No1c5,094$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.9410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1424…2e03backed No0c5,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1290…5269backed No4c5,000$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21530%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x863f…8775backed No10c5,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-53.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2bae…b5debacked No10c4,936$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50030%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7db3…77ccbacked No10c4,899$486 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$485.831414.3%2 W · 12 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick22cpaid-43.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x85b8…6b6abacked Yes69c4,743$3,270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,472.321764.7%11 W · 6 L+1.9wins+0.11per pick54cpaid+73.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x99c1…9b20backed No6c4,730$286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$285.6780%0 W · 8 L-1.8wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5095…c97cbacked Yes75c4,648$3,485 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,163.411070%7 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick62cpaid-0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf4d6…4973backed Yes65c4,618$3,004 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,614.12944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-13.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb6be…fcfebacked No9c4,410$389 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$388.733915.4%6 W · 33 L-2.2wins-0.06per pick21cpaid-25.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2359…f72bbacked Yes63c4,235$2,666 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,569.371533.3%5 W · 10 L-1.4wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-33.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe932…0f05backed No29c4,113$1,201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,201.48366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.25per pick42cpaid+103.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2e40…c89dbacked No27c4,033$1,071 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,070.51147.1%1 W · 13 L-2.7wins-0.19per pick27cpaid-86.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5c29…d822backed No10c4,010$383 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$383.21010%1 W · 9 L-2.5wins-0.25per pick35cpaid-84.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xda23…32e1backed No13c3,935$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50030%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x889e…09e0backed No20c3,923$785 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$784.642944.8%13 W · 16 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+35.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5685…62e2backed No42c3,806$1,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,600540%2 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.22per pick62cpaid-40.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x745a…64e8backed No5c3,795$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.41296.9%2 W · 27 L-5.0wins-0.17per pick24cpaid-80.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xa174…138dbacked No2c3,779$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.5810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0362…9661backed Yes59c3,594$2,121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,473.631154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.10per pick44cpaid-21.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x00a6…9343backed No22c3,550$793 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$792.8380%0 W · 8 L-2.2wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x88b0…b118backed Yes62c3,443$2,140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,302.963850%19 W · 19 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+11.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa8af…325ebacked No30c3,432$1,024 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,023.952722.2%6 W · 21 L-6.4wins-0.24per pick46cpaid-70.4%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0xaf93…80f0backed No4c3,330$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.8750%0 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x96a4…4d01backed Yes78c3,295$2,570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$724.791020%2 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-72.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb71a…6fc9backed No8c3,000$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.16per pick29cpaid-81.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6ca4…b6b5backed No1c2,992$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.9210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x31fc…4e30backed No13c2,984$382 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$382.38425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-64.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9b4…95b1backed No12c2,958$364 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$364.251118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.11per pick29cpaid-36.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb206…f717backed No4c2,838$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.5410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No1c2,826$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.8949411.5%57 W · 437 L-17.4wins-0.04per pick15cpaid-27.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x304a…eacfbacked No1c2,800$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.44475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.23per pick52cpaid+8.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc21d…4ed8backed No24c2,800$669 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$669520%1 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.15per pick35cpaid-72.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No11c2,791$307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$307.011631.3%5 W · 11 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-40%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaf9f…624cbacked No1c2,567$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.5650%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcbc1…8645backed No9c2,525$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225.6220%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x88e8…d208backed No44c2,295$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000520%1 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.29per pick49cpaid-68.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x141c…7154backed No10c2,282$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.82616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.19per pick35cpaid-76.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x40bb…72bebacked No9c2,258$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20030%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xadf4…ce9dbacked No11c2,206$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242.67366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick50cpaid-2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x542a…a81bbacked No5c2,160$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003414.7%5 W · 29 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick12cpaid+65.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6319…adefbacked No5c2,128$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10040%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No8c2,100$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.3634129.3%100 W · 241 L-11.3wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-25.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9e3c…93f1backed No5c2,091$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10040%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5950…8c48backed No4c2,000$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.8810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc7aa…d0f0backed No13c2,000$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257.15633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.13per pick20cpaid+21.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb293…6d52backed No6c2,000$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.24922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-26.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8011…70c9backed No31c2,000$620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb36…09f3backed No2c1,997$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.2340%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f68…62abbacked No9c1,900$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1661643.8%7 W · 9 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick37cpaid-25%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc90…6eb4backed Yes59c1,865$1,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$764.994100%4 W · 0 L+1.8wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+89.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8341…de89backed No12c1,810$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.25333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-43.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2032…d577backed No36c1,675$603 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$602.984957.1%28 W · 21 L+5.6wins+0.11per pick46cpaid+32.6%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.