Us Midterms · resolved market
Elise Stefanik confirmed as UN ambassador?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb3281ef2917217f999f2da14bad0913033306b3845b1804a4d4d5426cf59eb40
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,207,022
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,367,868
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,207,022 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe75c…f6c2backed No | 1c | 100,472$1,047 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99,425.16 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +480.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d37…f4a4backed No | 2c | 49,020$767 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48,253.28 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | +326.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd673…0c20backed No | 1c | 48,666$438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48,228.01 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 1cpaid | +2,677.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x542a…a81bbacked No | 2c | 46,554$959 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45,594.59 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +65.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90a8…b139backed No | 1c | 43,000$387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42,613 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 1cpaid | +2,677.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69e7…d3b0backed No | 2c | 36,964$821 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36,143.01 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | +6.8wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +103%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x011f…1122backed Yes | 2c | 22,650$434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$433.9 | 51 | 11.8%6 W · 45 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -75.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed No | 2c | 18,245$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,957.11 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +92.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d3…d424backed No | 6c | 17,408$1,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,308.45 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.17per pick | 23cpaid | +123.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc2ae…6374backed No | 4c | 16,610$710 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,899.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.96per pick | 4cpaid | +2,240.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36cc…8642backed No | 4c | 16,087$650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,437.58 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 12cpaid | +137.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked No | 0c | 9,041$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,998.27 | 132 | 0.8%1 W · 131 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | +60.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed No | 3c | 8,360$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,091.86 | 58 | 24.1%14 W · 44 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 72c | 7,815$5,615 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,614.74 | 315 | 34%107 W · 208 L | -11.6wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…f2cbbacked No | 1c | 7,060$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,999.37 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 5cpaid | +1,840.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf710…7b48backed No | 3c | 6,922$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,742.12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 4cpaid | +1,181.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked No | 1c | 6,644$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,566.51 | 45 | 2.2%1 W · 44 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 9cpaid | +90.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed No | 2c | 5,300$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,205.99 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | +3.8wins | +0.11per pick | 15cpaid | +300.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x133b…2f22backed No | 46c | 5,222$2,410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,811.99 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -4.1wins | -0.20per pick | 34cpaid | -76%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 3c | 5,145$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,008.23 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +59.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78d7…28f0backed No | 1c | 3,973$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,940.01 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 1cpaid | +5,943.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x663e…61c8backed No | 0c | 3,727$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,710.22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 0cpaid | +10,839.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed No | 5c | 3,667$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,471.58 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9488…b5a6backed No | 0c | 3,638$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,623.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 0cpaid | +12,367.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed No | 1c | 3,621$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,578.56 | 44 | 2.3%1 W · 43 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 2c | 3,219$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,152.75 | 341 | 29.3%100 W · 241 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55b4…80eabacked No | 0c | 3,114$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,103.46 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 9cpaid | +3,757.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6367…e938backed No | 5c | 2,890$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,745.17 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2023…2d55backed No | 2c | 2,877$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,829.96 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 8cpaid | +928.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cde…5b98backed Yes | 8c | 2,222$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.98 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.28per pick | 9cpaid | +246.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed Yes | 53c | 1,883$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 2c | 1,812$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,770.47 | 497 | 11.5%57 W · 440 L | -17.8wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb293…cb90backed No | 3c | 1,720$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,663.03 | 55 | 10.9%6 W · 49 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked No | 1c | 1,643$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,632.41 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 17cpaid | +1,501.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked No | 3c | 1,535$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,493.53 | 39 | 5.1%2 W · 37 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 7cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c7…fc4cbacked No | 8c | 1,395$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,284.61 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | +60.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x440d…55e6backed No | 2c | 1,361$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,331.22 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | +425.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed No | 5c | 1,018$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$966.63 | 29 | 6.9%2 W · 27 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed No | 4c | 1,000$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$958.3 | 68 | 41.2%28 W · 40 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08fe…98ffbacked No | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$950 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 17cpaid | +207%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd182…8921backed Yes | 4c | 1,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cfe…5e2fbacked No | 2c | 1,000$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$984 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.98per pick | 2cpaid | +6,150%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9eea…281dbacked No | 6c | 841.31$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$793.68 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +242.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd029…1909backed No | 1c | 807.44$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$797.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.99per pick | 1cpaid | +7,974.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…ae15backed No | 1c | 757.94$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$747.94 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 1cpaid | +3,689.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1893…75dcbacked No | 3c | 657.22$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$639.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.97per pick | 3cpaid | +3,634.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc178…35b3backed Yes | 51c | 586$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7fa…de00backed No | 5c | 550$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$523.7 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 16cpaid | +74.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x030a…acfcbacked No | 7c | 500$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$466 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.16per pick | 38cpaid | +102.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1414…53c3backed No | 4c | 499.94$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$479.94 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ef…5c65backed No | 4c | 444.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$424.74 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.78per pick | 22cpaid | +1,137.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x928f…9c61backed No | 6c | 416.67$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391.67 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd398…46d7backed No | 4c | 411.49$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$394.41 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f6…58d6backed No | 5c | 390$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370.5 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.16per pick | 23cpaid | +123.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x23f0…a378backed No | 6c | 333.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.94per pick | 6cpaid | +1,566.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86e5…c8ebbacked Yes | 36c | 300$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x365a…b08ebacked No | 4c | 290.9$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.96per pick | 4cpaid | +2,544.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe91…70ffbacked No | 4c | 270$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.2 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +124.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x371a…34b0backed No | 7c | 215.67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.38 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 2cpaid | +41%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51d7…c725backed No | 5c | 200$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 13cpaid | +900%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed No | 39c | 100$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe71c…dcecbacked No | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba4…8a89backed No | 29c | 40.82$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.98 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 17cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Elise Stefanik confirmed as UN ambassador?this page
- Doug Collins confirmed as Secretary of Veterans Affairs?Yes won
- Brooke Rollins confirmed as Agriculture Secretary?Yes won
- John Ratcliffe confirmed as director of the CIA?Yes won
- Kash Patel confirmed as Director of the FBI?Yes won
- Lee Zeldin confirmed as Administrator of the EPA?Yes won
- Lori Chavez-DeRemer confirmed as Labor Secretary?Yes won
- Marco Rubio confirmed as Secretary of State?Yes won
- Matt Gaetz confirmed as Attorney General?No won
- Mehmet Oz confirmed as Medicare and Medicaid Administrator?Yes won
- Mike Huckabee confirmed as ambassador to Israel?Yes won
- Pam Bondi confirmed as Attorney General?Yes won
- Pete Hegseth confirmed as Secretary of Defense?Yes won
- RFK Jr. confirmed as Health & Human Services Secretary?Yes won
- Russell Vought confirmed as OMB Director?Yes won
- Scott Turner confirmed as HUD Secretary?Yes won
- Tulsi Gabbard confirmed as Director of National Intelligence?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.