Us Midterms · resolved market
Pete Hegseth confirmed as Secretary of Defense?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3b40221adf21a481d1eb3c84bd52e828384fe2558a9889afa86068874f84f7b8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,251,258
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,207,754
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,251,258 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 1,023 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2023…2d55backed No | 0c | 1,015,226$1,815 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,814.77 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 8cpaid | +928.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes | 71c | 57,358$40,643 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,715.52 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…4c40backed No | 29c | 57,036$16,608 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,608.44 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2b…8e50backed No | 7c | 52,046$3,537 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,536.83 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cba…6a4cbacked No | 52c | 50,859$26,596 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26,596.09 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked No | 5c | 36,494$1,916 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,916.45 | 45 | 2.2%1 W · 44 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 9cpaid | +90.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f72…83adbacked No | 52c | 36,238$18,963 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,962.58 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d94…7ab2backed Yes | 33c | 35,375$11,578 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23,797.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +205.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc658…b784backed No | 68c | 35,212$23,889 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23,889.29 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce86…c0cebacked Yes | 30c | 34,770$10,423 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24,346.7 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +56.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8af…325ebacked No | 51c | 28,627$14,530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,530.22 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | -6.4wins | -0.24per pick | 46cpaid | -70.4%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xe75c…f6c2backed No | 34c | 26,873$9,201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,200.97 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +480.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed Yes | 30c | 25,001$7,439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,561.9 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc8…39efbacked No | 69c | 23,451$16,115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,114.6 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ac…08d5backed No | 11c | 21,999$2,387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,387.4 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x008b…b476backed Yes | 67c | 21,583$14,495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,088.29 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -62.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed No | 39c | 21,457$8,427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,426.58 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89ad…b45bbacked No | 2c | 21,000$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Yes | 57c | 20,113$11,552 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,561.39 | 57 | 38.6%22 W · 35 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2359…f72bbacked Yes | 28c | 19,285$5,334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,951.22 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3b…1d77backed No | 18c | 17,143$3,073 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,073.01 | 54 | 33.3%18 W · 36 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed No | 14c | 16,698$2,360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,359.8 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | +3.8wins | +0.11per pick | 15cpaid | +300.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe0c4…b84fbacked Yes | 60c | 16,601$9,908 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,693.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +67.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d04…ed05backed Yes | 29c | 16,500$4,850 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,650.24 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed No | 48c | 16,123$7,694 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,694.43 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00fa…30bebacked No | 5c | 14,205$741 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$741.31 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69e7…d3b0backed No | 74c | 13,484$9,979 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,978.55 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | +6.8wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +103%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed No | 12c | 12,816$1,573 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,572.7 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e2…a960backed Yes | 40c | 12,790$5,056 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,733.82 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 6c | 12,425$745 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$744.85 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | -3.4wins | -0.15per pick | 20cpaid | -81.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc7aa…d0f0backed No | 6c | 12,310$759 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$758.86 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf05…70dabacked Yes | 48c | 12,293$5,912 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,381.31 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc1…b8dfbacked No | 51c | 12,116$6,155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,154.97 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed No | 32c | 11,493$3,649 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,648.72 | 81 | 33.3%27 W · 54 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb2…682cbacked No | 23c | 11,304$2,632 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,632.16 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf43a…cafcbacked No | 0c | 11,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f68…62abbacked No | 26c | 10,522$2,753 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,753.13 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -25%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e32…2ec3backed No | 10c | 10,089$1,009 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,009.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12c0…7bd8backed No | 49c | 9,738$4,750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,749.7 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4821…a754backed Yes | 48c | 9,672$4,685 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,986.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +106.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d37…f4a4backed No | 5c | 9,477$512 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$512.43 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | +326.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x752e…81c4backed No | 29c | 9,162$2,632 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,631.78 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f23…c7d0backed No | 76c | 8,833$6,730 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,729.91 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -66.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8948…28d5backed Yes | 37c | 8,789$3,257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,531.98 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbaa…f756backed No | 26c | 8,759$2,282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,282 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd053…f7c0backed No | 5c | 8,500$424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$423.6 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf710…7b48backed No | 6c | 7,948$496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$496 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 4cpaid | +1,181.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2459…8d76backed No | 57c | 7,908$4,487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,487.24 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -79.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc103…1138backed Yes | 22c | 7,888$1,769 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,118.7 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +135.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x843a…1aa4backed No | 55c | 7,561$4,167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,167.41 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4558…a2b3backed Yes | 67c | 7,450$5,028 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,421.41 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -31%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcca5…296abacked Yes | 35c | 7,403$2,619 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,784.39 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +102.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc5fe…e320backed Yes | 79c | 7,243$5,744 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,499.16 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5754…e515backed No | 31c | 7,167$2,256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,256.45 | 58 | 36.2%21 W · 37 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x843d…2474backed Yes | 38c | 7,136$2,692 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,444.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +165.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41ba…dfbbbacked Yes | 20c | 7,102$1,420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,681.81 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1085…2d69backed No | 11c | 7,052$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750.35 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 30cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1795…3d80backed No | 15c | 6,750$983 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$983.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b60…f259backed Yes | 71c | 6,746$4,797 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,948.98 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…ea5abacked Yes | 75c | 6,646$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,646.41 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.22per pick | 68cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x42a6…1b64backed No | 6c | 6,614$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412.15 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -76.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0113…6f26backed Yes | 29c | 6,577$1,929 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,648.58 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5a…4ef5backed Yes | 74c | 6,543$4,817 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,725.49 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +3.3wins | +0.18per pick | 51cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc94b…fd9bbacked Yes | 44c | 6,426$2,855 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,570.89 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 31cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb56…3fc0backed No | 4c | 6,373$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.35 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed No | 65c | 6,286$4,089 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,089.28 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ec1…467abacked No | 35c | 6,199$2,147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,147.35 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 36cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84ea…17ebbacked Yes | 25c | 6,106$1,557 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,548.64 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.16per pick | 43cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xefa8…c82bbacked Yes | 32c | 6,000$1,920 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,080 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.31per pick | 36cpaid | +66.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb6…dc63backed No | 28c | 5,741$1,624 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,624.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f29…dd03backed Yes | 34c | 5,591$1,925 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,665.61 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e4…b676backed No | 63c | 5,555$3,518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,517.55 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96a4…4d01backed No | 52c | 5,406$2,791 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,790.57 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2997…ee2bbacked Yes | 76c | 5,288$4,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,287.91 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d61…6f1abacked Yes | 71c | 5,239$3,729 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,509.53 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -47%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc954…bdf5backed Yes | 66c | 5,000$3,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,699.99 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed No | 20c | 4,930$985 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$985.3 | 60 | 35%21 W · 39 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 6c | 4,856$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276 | 29 | 6.9%2 W · 27 L | -5.0wins | -0.17per pick | 24cpaid | -80.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x47bc…abd2backed Yes | 74c | 4,848$3,568 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,280.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc50…df9bbacked Yes | 28c | 4,835$1,378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,457.41 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -4.1wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5e38…a1dbbacked Yes | 63c | 4,777$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,777.38 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77cf…0e71backed No | 71c | 4,763$3,358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,358.18 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -74.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88e8…d208backed No | 66c | 4,562$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.29per pick | 49cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa218…94cdbacked Yes | 53c | 4,519$2,399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,119.73 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abe…5224backed Yes | 61c | 4,289$2,634 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,655 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +67.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d29…e109backed Yes | 61c | 4,288$2,626 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,662.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe91…70ffbacked Yes | 73c | 4,231$3,090 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,140.49 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +124.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x579e…eda1backed Yes | 31c | 4,193$1,313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,879.73 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85d6…39cebacked Yes | 29c | 4,190$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,990.49 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +74.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08ea…d0a8backed Yes | 26c | 4,173$1,084 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,089.18 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc970…b063backed No | 46c | 4,129$1,919 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,918.81 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 18cpaid | -70.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3119…c8f8backed Yes | 74c | 4,069$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,069.18 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf41…1587backed No | 49c | 4,045$1,974 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,973.57 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8025…fce2backed No | 18c | 4,020$722 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$722.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99b9…9b39backed Yes | 34c | 3,891$1,323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,568.41 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80cf…614dbacked No | 68c | 3,791$2,582 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,581.87 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30e4…5102backed No | 37c | 3,761$1,373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,373.15 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf007…10b4backed Yes | 55c | 3,714$2,050 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,664.66 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd81d…482dbacked No | 6c | 3,687$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed No | 17c | 3,680$620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$620.18 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -3.2wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Pete Hegseth confirmed as Secretary of Defense?this page
- Doug Collins confirmed as Secretary of Veterans Affairs?Yes won
- Brooke Rollins confirmed as Agriculture Secretary?Yes won
- Elise Stefanik confirmed as UN ambassador?No won
- John Ratcliffe confirmed as director of the CIA?Yes won
- Kash Patel confirmed as Director of the FBI?Yes won
- Lee Zeldin confirmed as Administrator of the EPA?Yes won
- Lori Chavez-DeRemer confirmed as Labor Secretary?Yes won
- Marco Rubio confirmed as Secretary of State?Yes won
- Matt Gaetz confirmed as Attorney General?No won
- Mehmet Oz confirmed as Medicare and Medicaid Administrator?Yes won
- Mike Huckabee confirmed as ambassador to Israel?Yes won
- Pam Bondi confirmed as Attorney General?Yes won
- RFK Jr. confirmed as Health & Human Services Secretary?Yes won
- Russell Vought confirmed as OMB Director?Yes won
- Scott Turner confirmed as HUD Secretary?Yes won
- Tulsi Gabbard confirmed as Director of National Intelligence?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.