TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Midterms · resolved market

Pete Hegseth confirmed as Secretary of Defense?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,251,258
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,207,754

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,251,258 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,023 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2023…2d55backed No0c1,015,226$1,815 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,814.77616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick8cpaid+928.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes71c57,358$40,643 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,715.523941%16 W · 23 L+2.9wins+0.08per pick33cpaid-0.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa49b…4c40backed No29c57,036$16,608 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,608.442516%4 W · 21 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick21cpaid-21.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd2b…8e50backed No7c52,046$3,537 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,536.831936.8%7 W · 12 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-17.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cba…6a4cbacked No52c50,859$26,596 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26,596.0960%0 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked No5c36,494$1,916 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,916.45452.2%1 W · 44 L-3.1wins-0.07per pick9cpaid+90.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6f72…83adbacked No52c36,238$18,963 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,962.5830%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8d94…7ab2backed Yes33c35,375$11,578 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,797.131100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.67per pick33cpaid+205.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc658…b784backed No68c35,212$23,889 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23,889.292045%9 W · 11 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-33.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xce86…c0cebacked Yes30c34,770$10,423 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24,346.7475%3 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.26per pick49cpaid+56.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa8af…325ebacked No51c28,627$14,530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,530.222722.2%6 W · 21 L-6.4wins-0.24per pick46cpaid-70.4%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0xe75c…f6c2backed No34c26,873$9,201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,200.971936.8%7 W · 12 L+0.1wins0.00per pick37cpaid+480.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x88b0…b118backed Yes30c25,001$7,439 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,561.93850%19 W · 19 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+11.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5fc8…39efbacked No69c23,451$16,115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,114.61145.5%5 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick56cpaid-35.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd1ac…08d5backed No11c21,999$2,387 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,387.43737.8%14 W · 23 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-31.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x008b…b476backed Yes67c21,583$14,495 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,088.29425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-62.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfcb0…c865backed No39c21,457$8,427 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,426.584037.5%15 W · 25 L+0.1wins0.00per pick37cpaid-24.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x89ad…b45bbacked No2c21,000$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39040%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Yes57c20,113$11,552 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,561.395738.6%22 W · 35 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2359…f72bbacked Yes28c19,285$5,334 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,951.221533.3%5 W · 10 L-1.4wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-33.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3f3b…1d77backed No18c17,143$3,073 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,073.015433.3%18 W · 36 L+2.7wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-10.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed No14c16,698$2,360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,359.83525.7%9 W · 26 L+3.8wins+0.11per pick15cpaid+300.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe0c4…b84fbacked Yes60c16,601$9,908 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,693.171100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+67.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d04…ed05backed Yes29c16,500$4,850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,650.24633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-15.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2227…b572backed No48c16,123$7,694 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,694.434139%16 W · 25 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick41cpaid+14.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x00fa…30bebacked No5c14,205$741 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$741.3140%0 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x69e7…d3b0backed No74c13,484$9,979 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,978.555145.1%23 W · 28 L+6.8wins+0.13per pick32cpaid+103%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed No12c12,816$1,573 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,572.75234.6%18 W · 34 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick35cpaid+0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf4e2…a960backed Yes40c12,790$5,056 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,733.82366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+34.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked No6c12,425$745 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$744.85224.5%1 W · 21 L-3.4wins-0.15per pick20cpaid-81.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc7aa…d0f0backed No6c12,310$759 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$758.86633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.13per pick20cpaid+21.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbf05…70dabacked Yes48c12,293$5,912 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,381.311040%4 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-27.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cc1…b8dfbacked No51c12,116$6,155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,154.97850%4 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-33.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed No32c11,493$3,649 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,648.728133.3%27 W · 54 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-31.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7bb2…682cbacked No23c11,304$2,632 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,632.161735.3%6 W · 11 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-42.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf43a…cafcbacked No0c11,000$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f68…62abbacked No26c10,522$2,753 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,753.131643.8%7 W · 9 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick37cpaid-25%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3e32…2ec3backed No10c10,089$1,009 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,009.0110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x12c0…7bd8backed No49c9,738$4,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,749.71520%3 W · 12 L-1.5wins-0.10per pick30cpaid-69.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4821…a754backed Yes48c9,672$4,685 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,986.581100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+106.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d37…f4a4backed No5c9,477$512 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$512.43156.7%1 W · 14 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick5cpaid+326.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x752e…81c4backed No29c9,162$2,632 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,631.781637.5%6 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-39.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f23…c7d0backed No76c8,833$6,730 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,729.912714.8%4 W · 23 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick18cpaid-66.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8948…28d5backed Yes37c8,789$3,257 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,531.98540%2 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick26cpaid-15.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbaa…f756backed No26c8,759$2,282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,28210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd053…f7c0backed No5c8,500$424 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$423.6714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick16cpaid-68.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf710…7b48backed No6c7,948$496 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$496333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.29per pick4cpaid+1,181.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2459…8d76backed No57c7,908$4,487 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,487.241414.3%2 W · 12 L-2.4wins-0.17per pick31cpaid-79.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc103…1138backed Yes22c7,888$1,769 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,118.74100%4 W · 0 L+1.9wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+135.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x843a…1aa4backed No55c7,561$4,167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,167.411225%3 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-11.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4558…a2b3backed Yes67c7,450$5,028 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,421.412433.3%8 W · 16 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-31%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcca5…296abacked Yes35c7,403$2,619 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,784.393100%3 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+102.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc5fe…e320backed Yes79c7,243$5,744 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,499.16520%1 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick31cpaid-74.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5754…e515backed No31c7,167$2,256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,256.455836.2%21 W · 37 L-0.1wins0.00per pick36cpaid-12.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x843d…2474backed Yes38c7,136$2,692 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,444.441100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.62per pick38cpaid+165.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x41ba…dfbbbacked Yes20c7,102$1,420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,681.81333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid+66.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1085…2d69backed No11c7,052$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$750.351315.4%2 W · 11 L-1.9wins-0.15per pick30cpaid-52.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1795…3d80backed No15c6,750$983 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$983.3810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b60…f259backed Yes71c6,746$4,797 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,948.98450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-29.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcbbc…ea5abacked Yes75c6,646$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,646.411090%9 W · 1 L+2.2wins+0.22per pick68cpaid+28.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x42a6…1b64backed No6c6,614$412 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$412.151315.4%2 W · 11 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick21cpaid-76.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0113…6f26backed Yes29c6,577$1,929 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,648.58540%2 W · 3 L0.0wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-4.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e5a…4ef5backed Yes74c6,543$4,817 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,725.491968.4%13 W · 6 L+3.3wins+0.18per pick51cpaid+18.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xc94b…fd9bbacked Yes44c6,426$2,855 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,570.89742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.12per pick31cpaid-19.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeb56…3fc0backed No4c6,373$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242.35728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-59.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e25…d7a7backed No65c6,286$4,089 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,089.283145.2%14 W · 17 L+2.3wins+0.08per pick38cpaid+5.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5ec1…467abacked No35c6,199$2,147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,147.35616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.19per pick36cpaid-71.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x84ea…17ebbacked Yes25c6,106$1,557 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,548.641758.8%10 W · 7 L+2.8wins+0.16per pick43cpaid+24.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xefa8…c82bbacked Yes32c6,000$1,920 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,080666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.8wins+0.31per pick36cpaid+66.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8bb6…dc63backed No28c5,741$1,624 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,624.220%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f29…dd03backed Yes34c5,591$1,925 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,665.61333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe8e4…b676backed No63c5,555$3,518 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,517.552138.1%8 W · 13 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-34.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x96a4…4d01backed No52c5,406$2,791 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,790.571020%2 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-72.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2997…ee2bbacked Yes76c5,288$4,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,287.913100%3 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+32.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5d61…6f1abacked Yes71c5,239$3,729 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,509.531127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick33cpaid-47%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc954…bdf5backed Yes66c5,000$3,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,699.99560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick52cpaid-11.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x44c1…ebc1backed No20c4,930$985 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$985.36035%21 W · 39 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-35.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x745a…64e8backed No6c4,856$276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$276296.9%2 W · 27 L-5.0wins-0.17per pick24cpaid-80.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x47bc…abd2backed Yes74c4,848$3,568 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,280.411100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcc50…df9bbacked Yes28c4,835$1,378 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,457.413225%8 W · 24 L-4.1wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-50.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5e38…a1dbbacked Yes63c4,777$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,777.381546.7%7 W · 8 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick40cpaid-19.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x77cf…0e71backed No71c4,763$3,358 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,358.18520%1 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.15per pick35cpaid-74.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x88e8…d208backed No66c4,562$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,000520%1 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.29per pick49cpaid-68.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa218…94cdbacked Yes53c4,519$2,399 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,119.733348.5%16 W · 17 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick43cpaid-9.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1abe…5224backed Yes61c4,289$2,634 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,6552100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+67.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1d29…e109backed Yes61c4,288$2,626 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,662.281100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe91…70ffbacked Yes73c4,231$3,090 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,140.491330.8%4 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+124.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x579e…eda1backed Yes31c4,193$1,313 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,879.731050%5 W · 5 L+1.6wins+0.16per pick34cpaid-1.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x85d6…39cebacked Yes29c4,190$1,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,990.49250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick22cpaid+74.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x08ea…d0a8backed Yes26c4,173$1,084 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,089.18425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc970…b063backed No46c4,129$1,919 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,918.81137.7%1 W · 12 L-1.3wins-0.10per pick18cpaid-70.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3119…c8f8backed Yes74c4,069$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,069.183100%3 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+41.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaf41…1587backed No49c4,045$1,974 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,973.571361.5%8 W · 5 L+1.4wins+0.11per pick51cpaid+9.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8025…fce2backed No18c4,020$722 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$722.4425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-67.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x99b9…9b39backed Yes34c3,891$1,323 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,568.41333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x80cf…614dbacked No68c3,791$2,582 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,581.87933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-49.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x30e4…5102backed No37c3,761$1,373 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,373.154141.5%17 W · 24 L+2.7wins+0.07per pick35cpaid+7.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf007…10b4backed Yes55c3,714$2,050 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,664.66944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-32.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd81d…482dbacked No6c3,687$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23530%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf0ed…47d8backed No17c3,680$620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$620.183026.7%8 W · 22 L-3.2wins-0.11per pick37cpaid-59.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.