Us Politics · resolved market

Will Mike Johnson be the first elected Speaker of the House for the 119th congress?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x64a87c7559aef832f6630af3e501919fb47a5d0107dbb1eb2236f71f910e5bdf

Rebuilt 7 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Yesof Yes, No
Resolved: Jan 3, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $2,104,865
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $2,363,505

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,104,865 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 2,546 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xe899…0899backed No	11c	100,100$11,011 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11,010.98	16	31.3%5 W · 11 L	+0.5wins	+0.03per pick	28cpaid	+127.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed No	4c	59,599$2,588 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,588.17	355	19.7%70 W · 285 L	-16.3wins	-0.05per pick	24cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed No	12c	53,107$6,162 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$6,162.29	10	40%4 W · 6 L	-0.5wins	-0.05per pick	45cpaid	-15.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9f9…b3debacked No	12c	39,026$4,829 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,828.81	124	4.8%6 W · 118 L	-3.4wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-85.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd1ac…08d5backed No	10c	33,050$3,160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,159.73	67	40.3%27 W · 40 L	+5.9wins	+0.09per pick	32cpaid	+22.4%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7bd9…bd75backed No	15c	28,485$4,407 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,406.92	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	+1.2wins	+0.11per pick	7cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xee63…07a4backed No	11c	26,641$3,012 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,012.2	10	40%4 W · 6 L	-1.2wins	-0.12per pick	52cpaid	-44%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x614d…1546backed No	16c	25,088$3,980 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,979.94	84	53.6%45 W · 39 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked No	14c	19,725$2,785 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,784.98	210	22.4%47 W · 163 L	+3.8wins	+0.02per pick	21cpaid	-24.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x745a…64e8backed No	26c	19,234$4,961 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,960.52	170	21.2%36 W · 134 L	-3.7wins	-0.02per pick	23cpaid	-28.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No	22c	18,716$4,095 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,094.63	963	19.8%191 W · 772 L	-32.4wins	-0.03per pick	23cpaid	-50%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdbaa…f756backed No	6c	17,368$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,000	12	50%6 W · 6 L	+0.8wins	+0.06per pick	44cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x44c1…ebc1backed No	9c	15,231$1,408 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,407.91	126	30.2%38 W · 88 L	+2.7wins	+0.02per pick	28cpaid	+105.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfcb0…c865backed No	33c	14,887$4,952 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,952.27	156	46.8%73 W · 83 L	+4.7wins	+0.03per pick	44cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x856f…e1d7backed No	7c	13,862$972 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$972.02	33	33.3%11 W · 22 L	+1.5wins	+0.05per pick	29cpaid	+56.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcbbc…ea5abacked Yes	71c	13,542$9,594 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,947.89	21	85.7%18 W · 3 L	+3.3wins	+0.16per pick	70cpaid	+28.4%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xccab…cb62backed No	11c	13,539$1,521 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,520.85	10	40%4 W · 6 L	+1.1wins	+0.11per pick	29cpaid	+18.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x99c1…9b20backed No	5c	13,070$604 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$604.12	27	7.4%2 W · 25 L	-1.7wins	-0.06per pick	14cpaid	-80.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4b29…d1c9backed No	6c	12,491$700 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$699.92	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.6wins	-0.29per pick	29cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4e56…dee1backed Yes	72c	11,984$8,657 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,327.16	34	41.2%14 W · 20 L	-2.9wins	-0.09per pick	50cpaid	-26.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2e40…c89dbacked No	17c	10,782$1,819 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,819.1	8	62.5%5 W · 3 L	+2.0wins	+0.25per pick	38cpaid	+57.1%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x12c0…7bd8backed No	15c	9,439$1,391 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,391.43	82	19.5%16 W · 66 L	-2.9wins	-0.04per pick	23cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2032…d577backed Yes	62c	9,191$5,669 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,521.92	151	55%83 W · 68 L	+3.2wins	+0.02per pick	53cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb9cc…387abacked No	9c	8,839$755 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$754.97	54	42.6%23 W · 31 L	+3.2wins	+0.06per pick	37cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xba01…1ebabacked Yes	75c	7,904$5,938 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,965.56	15	53.3%8 W · 7 L	-1.2wins	-0.08per pick	61cpaid	-24.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc7d8…a0a6backed No	10c	7,634$761 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$761.3	28	42.9%12 W · 16 L	-1.5wins	-0.05per pick	48cpaid	-32.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4cc3…7552backed No	8c	7,380$626 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$625.95	22	50%11 W · 11 L	+0.7wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	-21%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5095…c97cbacked Yes	63c	7,320$4,619 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,701.04	73	54.8%40 W · 33 L	+5.5wins	+0.08per pick	47cpaid	+7.9%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xcb8d…70febacked No	27c	7,210$1,921 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,920.87	26	50%13 W · 13 L	+1.4wins	+0.05per pick	45cpaid	+2.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8795…7544backed No	31c	6,887$2,159 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,158.9	61	45.9%28 W · 33 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-13%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21f9…ed12backed No	4c	6,837$272 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$272.41	102	11.8%12 W · 90 L	-4.5wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-72.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x066a…550dbacked Yes	74c	6,705$4,962 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,742.83	43	39.5%17 W · 26 L	-3.0wins	-0.07per pick	46cpaid	-23.3%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe6be…e346backed Yes	77c	6,583$5,037 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,546.06	3	100%3 W · 0 L	+1.4wins	+0.48per pick	52cpaid	+270.2%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3436…600bbacked No	37c	6,543$2,411 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,411.38	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.07per pick	57cpaid	-35.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa727…8289backed No	5c	6,387$307 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$306.58	42	16.7%7 W · 35 L	-2.3wins	-0.05per pick	22cpaid	-64.7%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xaf9f…624cbacked No	17c	6,386$1,083 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,082.6	21	23.8%5 W · 16 L	+2.2wins	+0.11per pick	13cpaid	+17%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed No	9c	6,323$544 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$544.39	378	44.4%168 W · 210 L	+33.3wins	+0.09per pick	36cpaid	+64.3%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf119…b8a1backed No	5c	6,000$290 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$290.06	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2741…0865backed No	31c	5,846$1,820 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,820.48	303	19.1%58 W · 245 L	-20.6wins	-0.07per pick	26cpaid	-35.9%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf4e2…a960backed No	5c	5,457$295 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$294.93	23	47.8%11 W · 12 L	+1.4wins	+0.06per pick	42cpaid	-9.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xacd9…3d87backed No	17c	5,425$905 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$905.48	39	53.8%21 W · 18 L	+4.8wins	+0.12per pick	41cpaid	+124.5%equal weight	58+0.08 edge/pick
0x063d…3567backed No	7c	5,236$353 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$353.43	11	63.6%7 W · 4 L	+1.9wins	+0.17per pick	47cpaid	+56.5%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x49fd…0198backed No	19c	5,231$998 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$998.44	159	24.5%39 W · 120 L	-4.8wins	-0.03per pick	28cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6153…0e04backed No	10c	5,066$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5e38…a1dbbacked Yes	60c	5,004$3,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,004.45	20	55%11 W · 9 L	-0.9wins	-0.05per pick	60cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6f72…83adbacked No	15c	5,000$750 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$750	19	31.6%6 W · 13 L	-0.9wins	-0.05per pick	36cpaid	-40.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa848…4797backed Yes	72c	4,862$3,516 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,345.89	4	75%3 W · 1 L	+0.2wins	+0.04per pick	71cpaid	+3.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x371a…34b0backed No	0c	4,752$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.42	34	8.8%3 W · 31 L	+0.8wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+65%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2227…b572backed No	13c	4,497$571 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$570.56	231	49.4%114 W · 117 L	+7.6wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	+14.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7a61…af24backed Yes	44c	4,437$1,957 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,480.49	165	35.8%59 W · 106 L	+18.3wins	+0.11per pick	25cpaid	+86.2%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0x41e6…caeebacked No	16c	4,335$677 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$676.51	5	60%3 W · 2 L	+0.1wins	+0.02per pick	58cpaid	-13.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd2c5…1841backed No	19c	4,017$759 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$758.9	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.19per pick	19cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc3c6…ebefbacked No	24c	3,872$938 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$937.88	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.3wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd993…844abacked Yes	75c	3,444$2,578 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$866.14	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.23per pick	73cpaid	-33.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd053…f7c0backed No	22c	3,296$709 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$709.2	35	17.1%6 W · 29 L	-3.6wins	-0.10per pick	28cpaid	-55.4%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9825…f8e8backed Yes	74c	3,296$2,439 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$856.95	8	75%6 W · 2 L	+0.8wins	+0.11per pick	64cpaid	+36.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8756…b36cbacked No	28c	3,234$891 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$891.23	26	50%13 W · 13 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-12.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x542a…a81bbacked No	10c	3,031$306 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$306.44	100	7%7 W · 93 L	-2.0wins	-0.02per pick	9cpaid	-67.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x418d…48c8backed No	30c	3,027$900 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$900	2	50%1 W · 1 L	0.0wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	-24.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5754…e515backed No	29c	2,957$864 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$864	216	34.3%74 W · 142 L	+0.9wins	0.00per pick	34cpaid	-14.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked No	19c	2,918$560 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$560.12	113	47.8%54 W · 59 L	+10.8wins	+0.10per pick	38cpaid	+18.1%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1ae4…4f84backed No	11c	2,885$316 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$315.69	21	42.9%9 W · 12 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	42cpaid	-27.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1b93…c47ebacked Yes	73c	2,857$2,084 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$772.48	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.3wins	+0.27per pick	73cpaid	+37.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x64d7…73a1backed No	17c	2,589$432 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$432.19	49	53.1%26 W · 23 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	54cpaid	+2.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x040e…8edfbacked Yes	79c	2,500$1,981 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$518.76	35	42.9%15 W · 20 L	-2.1wins	-0.06per pick	49cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9373…f905backed No	28c	2,457$676 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$676.13	2	50%1 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-32.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2365…8eb9backed No	26c	2,450$646 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$645.71	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-1.1wins	-0.19per pick	19cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x32a3…3728backed No	29c	2,393$696 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$696	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.29per pick	29cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3295…70f6backed Yes	73c	2,311$1,688 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$622.92	4	75%3 W · 1 L	+0.6wins	+0.16per pick	59cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc930…9ed4backed No	10c	2,248$232 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$232.07	9	0%0 W · 9 L	-0.4wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfcf2…d43dbacked No	20c	2,222$449 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$448.84	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.1wins	+0.05per pick	28cpaid	-18.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x69e7…d3b0backed No	37c	2,207$816 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$816.41	45	42.2%19 W · 26 L	+2.0wins	+0.05per pick	38cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6f2a…d8c9backed No	7c	2,189$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	5	20%1 W · 4 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	20cpaid	-71.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5a67…a78ebacked No	9c	2,123$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	40	37.5%15 W · 25 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	38cpaid	+21.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x50bc…78c2backed No	3c	2,000$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51	29	13.8%4 W · 25 L	+0.6wins	+0.02per pick	12cpaid	-28.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x777f…a1bbbacked No	19c	1,943$362 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$362.24	135	37.8%51 W · 84 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	38cpaid	-23.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe268…2feabacked Yes	76c	1,916$1,464 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$451.95	4	50%2 W · 2 L	-0.8wins	-0.21per pick	71cpaid	-34.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0cd7…cd86backed Yes	71c	1,907$1,346 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$560.49	6	50%3 W · 3 L	+0.3wins	+0.05per pick	45cpaid	+22.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x99a1…b0c3backed No	12c	1,850$227 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$226.85	284	7.7%22 W · 262 L	+1.9wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-40.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb0e4…651abacked Yes	72c	1,781$1,287 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$494.81	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.3wins	+0.28per pick	72cpaid	+38.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x133b…2f22backed No	29c	1,742$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500.02	42	47.6%20 W · 22 L	+6.9wins	+0.17per pick	31cpaid	+68.8%equal weight	62+0.10 edge/pick
0x7ca7…81ddbacked No	9c	1,692$151 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150.95	28	17.9%5 W · 23 L	-3.6wins	-0.13per pick	31cpaid	-52.3%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf0ed…47d8backed No	18c	1,644$299 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$299.35	142	41.5%59 W · 83 L	+9.3wins	+0.07per pick	35cpaid	+18.7%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x84dd…8701backed Yes	79c	1,559$1,236 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$322.34	32	59.4%19 W · 13 L	+0.9wins	+0.03per pick	57cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c47…bc97backed Yes	71c	1,552$1,110 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$442.41	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.2wins	+0.11per pick	39cpaid	-30.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x642b…7043backed Yes	72c	1,549$1,120 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$428.78	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.2wins	+0.11per pick	39cpaid	-30.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x81ee…c56bbacked Yes	72c	1,515$1,088 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$426.85	5	100%5 W · 0 L	+1.9wins	+0.38per pick	62cpaid	+85.7%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa7c3…74aebacked Yes	73c	1,471$1,078 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$392.36	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+0.5wins	+0.25per pick	75cpaid	+33.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6f87…f277backed No	9c	1,459$131 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130.91	8	50%4 W · 4 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-16.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7db3…77ccbacked No	12c	1,455$181 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$181.06	59	16.9%10 W · 49 L	-4.7wins	-0.08per pick	25cpaid	-62.1%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc67e…b892backed Yes	71c	1,452$1,030 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$422.04	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-0.9wins	-0.17per pick	37cpaid	-71.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdeaf…9232backed Yes	79c	1,444$1,137 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$306.81	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.2wins	+0.21per pick	79cpaid	+27%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xacc8…7d08backed No	18c	1,399$248 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$248.07	87	50.6%44 W · 43 L	+10.7wins	+0.12per pick	38cpaid	+8.4%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0x3acb…d82ebacked No	27c	1,390$377 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$376.66	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.27per pick	27cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4aae…f3a2backed No	11c	1,346$151 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150.77	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x81b5…c665backed No	11c	1,310$149 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$149.31	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.2wins	+0.09per pick	41cpaid	-28.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa69d…40d4backed Yes	77c	1,300$1,005 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$294.6	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.4wins	+0.14per pick	52cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed No	3c	1,300$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43	89	21.3%19 W · 70 L	+4.9wins	+0.06per pick	16cpaid	-21.5%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x827b…01cebacked Yes	66c	1,245$825 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$419.69	147	42.9%63 W · 84 L	+3.6wins	+0.02per pick	40cpaid	+48.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5528…7aa2backed Yes	80c	1,201$957 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$243.85	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.2wins	+0.20per pick	80cpaid	+25.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Mike Johnson be the first elected Speaker of the House for the 119th congress?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event