Us Politics · resolved market
Will Steve Scalise be the first elected Speaker of the House for the 119th congress?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5a3a787704c11ae925566b5193f1ad3ea61c2aa8eea6514e14e9152a4feb0f7c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $146,096
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $80,598
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $146,096 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 1c | 16,754$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.8 | 355 | 19.7%70 W · 285 L | -16.3wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 0c | 7,379$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.92 | 240 | 0%0 W · 240 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 2c | 4,538$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.91 | 378 | 44.4%168 W · 210 L | +33.3wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 5c | 3,389$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.21 | 210 | 22.4%47 W · 163 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6367…e938backed Yes | 1c | 3,000$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.29 | 94 | 26.6%25 W · 69 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes | 4c | 2,712$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.41 | 124 | 4.8%6 W · 118 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -85.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccab…cb62backed Yes | 2c | 2,530$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.55 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea3e…b956backed Yes | 5c | 2,332$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.01 | 88 | 43.2%38 W · 50 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed Yes | 6c | 1,770$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.95 | 151 | 55%83 W · 68 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes | 1c | 1,654$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 169 | 43.2%73 W · 96 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 4c | 1,531$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.49 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5754…e515backed Yes | 8c | 1,410$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.71 | 216 | 34.3%74 W · 142 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bd8…14dcbacked Yes | 6c | 1,180$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.68 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x208f…b41fbacked Yes | 6c | 1,180$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1d4…6775backed Yes | 2c | 1,141$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29df…9e6bbacked Yes | 6c | 1,131$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.07 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7723…303bbacked Yes | 6c | 1,111$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.34 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0e…e3f4backed Yes | 6c | 1,017$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.96 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -51%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 8c | 955.37$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.7 | 412 | 38.8%160 W · 252 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0287…b619backed Yes | 2c | 862.37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc0…6aefbacked Yes | 6c | 846.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabc0…d682backed Yes | 6c | 801.3$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.65 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6182…6f17backed Yes | 6c | 694.55$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc217…df9ebacked Yes | 2c | 683.39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked Yes | 2c | 664.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.49 | 189 | 14.3%27 W · 162 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4427…d2b1backed Yes | 6c | 659.64$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a0…66d1backed Yes | 6c | 653.63$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.08 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 38cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed Yes | 10c | 646.96$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.6 | 156 | 46.8%73 W · 83 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb8e…962bbacked Yes | 6c | 622.35$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.91 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb78…c519backed Yes | 6c | 599.07$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.38 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x642b…7043backed Yes | 6c | 595.84$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.95 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc82a…23f5backed Yes | 6c | 582.07$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.87 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2259…3410backed Yes | 6c | 573.93$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc446…cd88backed Yes | 6c | 562.7$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.53 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb270…e0ccbacked Yes | 6c | 547.15$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.06 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a6e…a8e3backed Yes | 6c | 541.19$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.42 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6eb5…6aa0backed Yes | 6c | 532.45$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.45 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92ed…b7d5backed Yes | 6c | 526.92$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.65 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecd3…ccf6backed Yes | 6c | 522.47$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.42 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec8…0d44backed Yes | 6c | 519.23$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.07 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b98…ef9abacked Yes | 6c | 516.74$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.94 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c47…bc97backed Yes | 6c | 504.08$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.44 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2551…1f7ebacked Yes | 6c | 503.83$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.22 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2dbf…51a5backed Yes | 6c | 502.24$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9905…1bc4backed Yes | 6c | 500$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cf6…d908backed Yes | 6c | 498.35$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a72…dd5cbacked Yes | 6c | 495.46$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.94 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46d9…20dabacked Yes | 6c | 446.24$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.44 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c29…c61ebacked Yes | 6c | 430.07$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f89…9120backed Yes | 6c | 429.49$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.68 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x762e…ecbdbacked Yes | 6c | 422.72$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.57 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60d9…6f4abacked Yes | 6c | 398.92$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.49 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedb8…2efcbacked Yes | 6c | 391.03$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 6c | 369.09$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.65 | 215 | 4.2%9 W · 206 L | -8.5wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe57…875bbacked Yes | 6c | 361.18$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfb…0ff2backed Yes | 6c | 351.89$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa959…0f64backed Yes | 12c | 348.56$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.82 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a6…e68dbacked Yes | 6c | 314.08$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.43 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1523…78dabacked Yes | 7c | 311.96$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.66 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -51%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ddd…fee2backed Yes | 6c | 306.35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d83…9828backed Yes | 6c | 304.27$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.34 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85b0…b759backed Yes | 6c | 285.78$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93b0…8811backed Yes | 6c | 285.55$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaef…fe7ebacked Yes | 6c | 259.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -28%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcefe…b673backed Yes | 6c | 238.21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 10c | 237.41$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.75 | 303 | 19.1%58 W · 245 L | -20.6wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x16e5…dc91backed Yes | 6c | 236.02$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.91 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23ba…05b7backed Yes | 5c | 218.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1bb…eee8backed Yes | 11c | 213$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb1…7515backed Yes | 6c | 210.88$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbed0…77c7backed Yes | 10c | 200.11$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.26 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x516b…b47cbacked Yes | 6c | 193.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 8c | 190.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.35 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5109…5e9cbacked Yes | 8c | 183.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 180 | 33.3%60 W · 120 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ea9…e97ebacked Yes | 6c | 165$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0091…cf98backed Yes | 13c | 136$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.54 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46a0…ae75backed Yes | 11c | 131$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.81 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe1…aa4abacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Steve Scalise be the first elected Speaker of the House for the 119th congress?this page
- Will Donald Trump be the first elected Speaker of the House for the 119th congress?No won
- Will Austin Scott be the first elected Speaker of the House for the 119th congress?No won
- Will Byron Donalds be the first elected Speaker of the House for the 119th congress?No won
- Will Elise Stefanik be the first elected Speaker of the House for the 119th congress?No won
- Will Elon Musk be the first elected Speaker of the House for the 119th congress?No won
- Will Hakeem Jeffries be the first elected Speaker of the House for the 119th congress?No won
- Will Jack Bergman be the first elected Speaker of the House for the 119th congress?No won
- Will Jim Jordan be the first elected Speaker of the House for the 119th congress?No won
- Will Mike Johnson be the first elected Speaker of the House for the 119th congress?Yes won
- Will Pete Sessions be the first elected Speaker of the House for the 119th congress?No won
- Will Thomas Massie be the first elected Speaker of the House for the 119th congress?No won
- Will Tom Emmer be the first elected Speaker of the House for the 119th congress?No won
- Will Vivek Ramaswamy be the first elected Speaker of the House for the 119th congress?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.