Us Politics · resolved market
Will Tom Emmer be the first elected Speaker of the House for the 119th congress?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa6cee46a6b278b406fc8ec11760cc0c2389060dd318afacccc05231327a81760
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $130,851
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $83,783
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $130,851 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 0c | 13,312$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.74 | 240 | 0%0 W · 240 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe75c…f6c2backed Yes | 3c | 7,117$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.39 | 64 | 42.2%27 W · 37 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f2a…d8c9backed Yes | 1c | 6,120$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -71.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5754…e515backed Yes | 5c | 5,480$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.19 | 216 | 34.3%74 W · 142 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 1c | 3,161$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.45 | 378 | 44.4%168 W · 210 L | +33.3wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x00a6…9343backed Yes | 4c | 2,816$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.64 | 77 | 28.6%22 W · 55 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc930…9ed4backed Yes | 1c | 2,779$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.6 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 3c | 2,608$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.78 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes | 3c | 1,506$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.98 | 124 | 4.8%6 W · 118 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -85.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 2c | 1,468$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.54 | 355 | 19.7%70 W · 285 L | -16.3wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1d4…6775backed Yes | 2c | 828.23$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.66 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaef3…e62cbacked Yes | 4c | 662.11$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.77 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 5c | 603.45$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.74 | 215 | 4.2%9 W · 206 L | -8.5wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x322c…d7a4backed Yes | 8c | 563.1$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.46 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b2c…cb50backed Yes | 7c | 444$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.3 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7960…f8a8backed Yes | 7c | 440$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.04 | 59 | 22%13 W · 46 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc54f…dce8backed Yes | 9c | 331$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.79 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ea9…e97ebacked Yes | 4c | 230$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe065…d25fbacked Yes | 9c | 126.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Tom Emmer be the first elected Speaker of the House for the 119th congress?this page
- Will Donald Trump be the first elected Speaker of the House for the 119th congress?No won
- Will Austin Scott be the first elected Speaker of the House for the 119th congress?No won
- Will Byron Donalds be the first elected Speaker of the House for the 119th congress?No won
- Will Elise Stefanik be the first elected Speaker of the House for the 119th congress?No won
- Will Elon Musk be the first elected Speaker of the House for the 119th congress?No won
- Will Hakeem Jeffries be the first elected Speaker of the House for the 119th congress?No won
- Will Jack Bergman be the first elected Speaker of the House for the 119th congress?No won
- Will Jim Jordan be the first elected Speaker of the House for the 119th congress?No won
- Will Mike Johnson be the first elected Speaker of the House for the 119th congress?Yes won
- Will Pete Sessions be the first elected Speaker of the House for the 119th congress?No won
- Will Steve Scalise be the first elected Speaker of the House for the 119th congress?No won
- Will Thomas Massie be the first elected Speaker of the House for the 119th congress?No won
- Will Vivek Ramaswamy be the first elected Speaker of the House for the 119th congress?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.