TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will Elise Stefanik be the first elected Speaker of the House for the 119th congress?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$54,151,184
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,627,428

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $54,151,184 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,562 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xba87…17c9backed Yes1c123,693$1,237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,236.9320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x856a…cbb3backed Yes1c123,649$1,236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,236.4920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4fb3…fa3fbacked Yes1c119,892$1,199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,198.9220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5be…f791backed Yes1c118,365$1,184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,183.6520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x44cb…eebfbacked Yes1c117,418$1,174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,174.1820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1269…c72abacked Yes1c112,512$1,125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,125.1220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6491…2a9ebacked Yes1c112,283$1,123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,122.8320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde59…3791backed Yes1c109,862$1,099 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,098.6220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa6bb…0f8fbacked Yes1c109,492$1,095 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,094.9220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6495…8675backed Yes1c108,049$1,080 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,080.4920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcfa8…c534backed Yes1c106,914$1,069 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,069.1420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7826…7e66backed Yes1c106,167$1,062 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,061.6720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x01f6…4911backed Yes1c104,633$1,046 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,046.3320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae4e…cfe5backed Yes1c104,047$1,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,040.4720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3125…d049backed Yes1c103,845$1,038 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,038.4520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa55…c05bbacked Yes1c100,750$1,007 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,006.9420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7364…56bfbacked Yes1c99,940$999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999.420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2831…489ebacked Yes1c99,364$994 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$993.6420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb771…83edbacked Yes1c97,654$977 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$976.5420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe1f1…42d3backed Yes1c97,367$974 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$973.6720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2aa4…c44bbacked Yes1c97,350$974 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$973.520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d76…56a6backed Yes1c97,320$973 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$973.220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8ba7…deb1backed Yes1c97,073$971 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$970.7320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4bc3…c934backed Yes1c96,334$963 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$963.3420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x04c6…2abcbacked Yes1c93,911$939 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$939.1120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde58…a1efbacked Yes1c93,777$938 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$937.7720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5ef7…eef8backed Yes1c92,724$927 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$927.2420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51be…876fbacked Yes1c92,676$927 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$926.7620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x252b…0e9fbacked Yes1c92,624$926 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$926.2420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x86f8…2b23backed Yes1c92,140$921 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$921.420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3349…e1ebbacked Yes1c91,984$920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$919.8420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1b31…190abacked Yes1c90,216$902 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$902.1620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0fdd…bc0ebacked Yes1c90,065$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$900.0920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbddf…23b8backed Yes1c90,063$901 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$900.6320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9a45…cc70backed Yes1c90,027$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$900.2720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x141f…9e35backed Yes1c90,023$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$900.2320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1073…e9d0backed Yes1c89,982$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$899.8220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf98c…da4bbacked Yes1c89,975$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$899.7520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd27f…1da9backed Yes1c89,964$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$899.6420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf12…b6b3backed Yes1c89,964$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$899.6420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfcda…f04bbacked Yes1c89,919$899 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$899.1920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe2b5…42a9backed Yes1c89,662$896 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$896.4320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa439…0c12backed Yes1c89,575$896 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$895.7520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe34c…2381backed Yes1c89,476$895 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$894.7620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x838f…52e8backed Yes1c89,339$893 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$893.3920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x80e7…4499backed Yes1c89,206$892 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$892.0620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99c9…f43bbacked Yes1c89,120$891 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$891.220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d12…7c3abacked Yes1c89,002$890 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$890.0220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e32…de72backed Yes1c88,924$889 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$889.2420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa9f…d738backed Yes1c88,897$889 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$888.9720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb838…fe9fbacked Yes1c88,832$888 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$888.3220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x98b3…7f0abacked Yes1c88,677$887 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$886.7720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa166…35a4backed Yes1c88,026$880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$880.2620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0fe3…8a70backed Yes1c87,825$878 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$878.2520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe8d1…ce5fbacked Yes1c85,116$851 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$851.1620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60e9…7d31backed Yes1c84,911$849 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$849.1120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf9bc…14cbbacked Yes1c84,488$845 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$844.8820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd4ca…10bdbacked Yes1c84,201$842 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$842.0120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa00a…456bbacked Yes1c84,085$841 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$840.8520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x116f…4891backed Yes1c83,847$838 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$838.4720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b6c…0bcebacked Yes1c83,599$836 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$835.9920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f66…7214backed Yes1c83,573$836 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$835.7320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x44be…f3e7backed Yes1c83,272$833 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$832.7220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc120…8295backed Yes1c81,921$819 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$819.2120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x842a…cd2fbacked Yes1c81,573$816 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$815.7320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x36b2…6908backed Yes1c80,632$806 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$806.3220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe9ca…8a61backed Yes1c80,464$805 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$804.6420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7f45…5848backed Yes1c80,160$802 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$801.620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9018…65b3backed Yes1c80,024$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$800.2420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d75…8d90backed Yes1c80,024$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$800.2420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3af3…0b5ebacked Yes1c79,968$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$799.6820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa9c…6b12backed Yes1c79,960$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$799.620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbde9…5002backed Yes1c79,944$799 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$799.4420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d23…7acbbacked Yes1c79,944$799 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$799.4420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x242c…014dbacked Yes1c79,928$799 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$799.2820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9df9…5131backed Yes1c79,928$799 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$799.2820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa884…f03bbacked Yes1c79,660$797 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$796.620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d5e…10a5backed Yes1c77,853$779 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$778.5320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9ce4…2504backed Yes1c77,809$778 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$778.0920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc0a…987cbacked Yes1c77,545$775 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$775.4520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e24…418abacked Yes1c77,114$771 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$771.1420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3055…9dcbbacked Yes1c77,071$771 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$770.7120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc317…3264backed Yes1c74,647$746 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$746.4720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1043…9689backed Yes1c74,543$745 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$745.4320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0fcf…f02dbacked Yes1c74,368$744 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$743.6820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb91…c417backed Yes1c74,353$744 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$743.5320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6af0…8f8cbacked Yes1c74,291$743 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$742.9120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x456b…602abacked Yes1c74,042$740 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$740.4220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe103…6153backed Yes1c73,935$739 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$739.3520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x81d3…f035backed Yes1c73,619$736 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$736.1920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf503…053ebacked Yes1c73,285$733 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$732.8520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60b8…f461backed Yes1c73,276$733 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$732.7620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb8d2…0199backed Yes1c73,263$733 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$732.6320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb902…c4f5backed Yes1c73,194$732 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$731.9420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7503…ab9abacked Yes1c73,147$731 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$731.4720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd626…c4b9backed Yes1c73,132$731 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$731.3220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21aa…281abacked Yes1c72,867$729 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$728.6720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc23…d01ebacked Yes1c72,517$725 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$725.1720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x59af…6cfabacked Yes1c71,928$719 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$719.2820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b25…dd88backed Yes1c71,775$718 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$717.7530%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.