TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will Donald Trump be the first elected Speaker of the House for the 119th congress?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,724,300
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$851,295

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,724,300 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 171 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xcf7c…f2cbbacked Yes2c358,137$5,729 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,729.293721.6%8 W · 29 L+4.3wins+0.12per pick10cpaid+110.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x72aa…3b8bbacked Yes2c39,223$832 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$832.475928.8%17 W · 42 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick25cpaid-4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc613…662bbacked Yes0c36,713$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.472400%0 W · 240 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2d51…93c7backed Yes1c32,671$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228.730%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc3c6…ebefbacked Yes2c28,441$436 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$435.9440%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7542…6dfabacked Yes1c27,151$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.4330%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfea2…0cc6backed Yes1c25,566$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.9530%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa1c7…5891backed Yes1c25,311$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.1630%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x53a0…d7b6backed Yes1c25,276$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.9330%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4aca…b5a1backed Yes1c25,150$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.0530%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd298…42aebacked Yes1c24,486$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.67520%1 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick8cpaid-34.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3d36…e645backed Yes1c23,914$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.430%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe89e…fecebacked Yes1c23,853$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.9730%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc03a…ea82backed Yes1c23,830$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.8130%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x18ae…f620backed Yes1c23,803$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.6230%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x633e…659fbacked Yes1c23,569$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.9830%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c1e…212dbacked Yes1c19,374$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.6230%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeecc…4b2dbacked Yes1c19,371$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.630%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x40f2…645ebacked Yes1c19,050$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.3130%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc3ae…40f0backed Yes1c18,831$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.8230%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x959c…4574backed Yes1c18,794$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.3630%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x547b…f62ebacked Yes1c18,771$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.430%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb9d…a324backed Yes1c18,747$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.2320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d06…309fbacked Yes1c18,664$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.6530%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd28c…5adbbacked Yes1c18,640$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.4830%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcda5…d612backed Yes1c18,591$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.1430%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x97ec…85a9backed Yes1c18,011$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.0830%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe4f2…0d74backed Yes1c17,870$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.0930%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa2d…4e2abacked Yes1c17,839$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.8730%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x601b…b419backed Yes1c17,761$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.3330%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x097c…34acbacked Yes1c17,739$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.1730%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcddb…e164backed Yes1c17,727$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.0930%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc2c…138abacked Yes1c17,663$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.6430%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x510e…16f0backed Yes1c17,641$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.4930%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf01…0469backed Yes1c17,520$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.6430%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x62c1…1f57backed Yes1c17,506$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.5430%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21f9…ed12backed Yes0c17,500$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.510211.8%12 W · 90 L-4.5wins-0.04per pick16cpaid-72.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe52b…86bcbacked Yes1c17,391$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.7430%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d2f…35d9backed Yes1c17,376$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.6330%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe39f…4d62backed Yes1c17,309$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.130%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbe93…cfc9backed Yes1c17,307$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.1530%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf645…a456backed Yes1c17,230$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.6130%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x68a0…6c3dbacked Yes1c17,164$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.1530%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e04…e5d1backed Yes1c17,150$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.0530%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdea6…b3f5backed Yes1c17,126$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.8830%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x914b…6d8ebacked Yes1c17,034$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.2430%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b30…741bbacked Yes1c16,950$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.6530%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9ce9…34a7backed Yes1c16,900$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.330%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x54ce…f1d9backed Yes1c16,807$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.6530%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b55…cde3backed Yes1c16,750$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.9360%0 W · 6 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x600b…467dbacked Yes1c16,363$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.5430%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f95…765dbacked Yes1c16,273$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.9130%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc007…8de0backed Yes1c16,239$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.6730%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x050d…a6b8backed Yes1c16,129$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.930%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x465a…500cbacked Yes1c16,116$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.8130%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d15…333fbacked Yes1c16,093$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.6530%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa924…e619backed Yes1c16,009$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.0630%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd69…d5f8backed Yes1c15,996$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.9630%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b40…e57ebacked Yes1c15,996$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.9730%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5429…ec5cbacked Yes1c15,783$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.4830%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1db7…0b56backed Yes1c15,731$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.1230%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x38d2…92bbbacked Yes1c15,474$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.3230%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3da7…4c8cbacked Yes1c14,000$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70425%1 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.17per pick8cpaid+157.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x768f…d08cbacked Yes0c13,431$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.4310632.1%34 W · 72 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-23.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf262…3a8cbacked Yes1c10,684$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.1630%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd28b…e704backed Yes1c10,029$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.230%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x71ed…d9ebbacked Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102532%8 W · 17 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-36.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes1c10,000$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$902847.7%22 W · 262 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick7cpaid-40.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x62f4…456fbacked Yes1c9,806$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.6430%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba02…79d4backed Yes1c9,800$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.4130%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f56…be92backed Yes1c9,751$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.2630%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0658…1914backed Yes1c9,733$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.1330%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc262…f183backed Yes1c9,730$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.1130%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cbd…ba69backed Yes1c9,613$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.2930%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xffad…1575backed Yes1c9,607$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.2530%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x39f5…b513backed Yes1c9,594$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.1630%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x09ee…3114backed Yes1c9,580$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.0630%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1b9f…d8f8backed Yes1c9,564$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.9530%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x446f…3113backed Yes1c9,554$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.8830%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac49…6b17backed Yes1c9,551$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.8620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf876…7df8backed Yes1c9,544$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.8130%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfdf7…2a70backed Yes1c9,521$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.6530%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3710…18cbbacked Yes1c9,518$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.6130%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbcbb…fb1fbacked Yes1c9,493$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.4530%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9fc1…f93abacked Yes1c9,491$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.4430%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc51b…d8eabacked Yes1c9,457$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.230%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7993…0bb8backed Yes1c9,390$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.7330%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c4d…2de0backed Yes1c9,373$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.6130%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4160…edffbacked Yes1c9,334$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.3430%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8099…4dbabacked Yes1c9,317$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.2230%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa985…fac4backed Yes1c9,286$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6530%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x432f…e1bcbacked Yes1c9,261$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.8330%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x062b…cac8backed Yes1c9,257$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.830%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ebe…8957backed Yes1c9,254$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.7830%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd222…8578backed Yes1c9,221$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.5530%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x182c…dd64backed Yes1c9,220$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.5430%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd4a…3effbacked Yes1c9,161$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.1130%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f8d…f95abacked Yes1c9,147$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.0330%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8576…5e9fbacked Yes1c9,146$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.0230%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0684…faecbacked Yes1c9,124$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.8530%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.