TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will Jack Bergman be the first elected Speaker of the House for the 119th congress?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$58,633,496
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,478,928

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $58,633,496 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,496 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf594…ba03backed Yes1c196,013$1,568 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,568.110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d73…6d7fbacked Yes1c195,066$1,561 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,560.5310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5836…84d1backed Yes1c168,829$1,351 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,350.6310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f5c…154dbacked Yes1c165,321$1,323 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,322.5710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1afd…332abacked Yes1c161,800$1,294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,294.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa959…bf68backed Yes1c160,940$1,288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,287.5210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x66f5…8ecbbacked Yes1c158,810$1,270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,270.4810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d5d…8fc2backed Yes1c154,794$1,238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,238.3510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x10ec…988bbacked Yes1c154,065$1,233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,232.5210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x85bf…8aefbacked Yes1c153,093$1,225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,224.7410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd01e…aa66backed Yes1c148,065$1,185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,184.5210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e1c…aa87backed Yes1c147,836$1,183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,182.6910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb50…3493backed Yes1c143,906$1,151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,151.2510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcad7…ecc6backed Yes1c140,618$1,125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,124.9410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f6f…3208backed Yes1c139,974$1,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,119.7910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x535b…9981backed Yes1c139,711$1,118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,117.6910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb0b6…c12ebacked Yes1c139,668$1,117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,117.3410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd978…f317backed Yes1c138,151$1,105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,105.2110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc09e…f519backed Yes1c137,416$1,099 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,099.3310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc4b…9332backed Yes1c136,755$1,094 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,094.0410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2af8…7321backed Yes1c136,116$1,089 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,088.9310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdafb…7ec6backed Yes1c133,651$1,069 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,069.2110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe1e…56fdbacked Yes1c131,916$1,055 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,055.3310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd370…d501backed Yes1c130,164$1,041 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,041.3110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b3c…ed36backed Yes1c129,374$1,035 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,034.9910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf30f…5a97backed Yes1c129,360$1,035 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,034.8810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1bb…853dbacked Yes1c129,246$1,034 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,033.9710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x70c3…244ebacked Yes1c128,710$1,030 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,029.6810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f31…e1fcbacked Yes1c128,491$1,028 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,027.9310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ec0…05dfbacked Yes1c127,529$1,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,020.2310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb901…2ce8backed Yes1c127,234$1,018 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,017.8710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x809b…1495backed Yes1c125,091$1,001 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000.7310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x81cd…860ebacked Yes1c123,819$991 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$990.5510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xab84…e24abacked Yes1c121,965$976 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$975.7210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b51…3d24backed Yes1c121,606$973 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$972.8510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x98b7…ca27backed Yes1c121,294$970 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$970.3510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d96…17a7backed Yes1c121,066$969 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$968.5310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c8e…2b9abacked Yes1c121,034$968 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$968.2710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8cd9…5b60backed Yes1c120,720$966 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$965.7610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbac7…2845backed Yes1c120,628$965 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$965.0210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc06c…f86fbacked Yes1c119,755$958 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$958.0410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x235b…d854backed Yes1c119,410$955 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$955.2810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd1e…8ec0backed Yes1c119,290$954 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$954.3210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xebc1…c1b6backed Yes1c117,539$940 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$940.3110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb322…bcbfbacked Yes1c116,788$934 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$934.310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd2f8…54eebacked Yes1c116,296$930 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$930.3710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x660b…2a22backed Yes1c115,438$924 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$923.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xabb1…4abebacked Yes1c115,375$923 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x96bd…1e62backed Yes1c115,265$922 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$922.1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa5b9…f140backed Yes1c115,118$921 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$920.9410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x96bd…594fbacked Yes1c112,659$901 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$901.2710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5021…7f96backed Yes1c112,395$899 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$899.1610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb9b…b970backed Yes1c111,919$895 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$895.3510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x45af…a1a7backed Yes1c111,460$892 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$891.6810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb65a…4ed3backed Yes1c111,305$890 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$890.4410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa64f…30efbacked Yes1c111,190$890 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$889.5210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf408…32b9backed Yes1c110,433$883 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$883.4610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a5d…b7a2backed Yes1c109,336$875 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$874.6910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe75f…20a6backed Yes1c108,459$868 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$867.6710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6dc8…3120backed Yes1c108,228$866 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$865.8210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c40…2cefbacked Yes1c108,049$864 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$864.3910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6497…6a85backed Yes1c107,920$863 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$863.3610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7807…37d7backed Yes1c107,759$862 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$862.0710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x552a…ca2dbacked Yes1c106,810$854 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$854.4810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4207…506abacked Yes1c106,080$849 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$848.6410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1aa9…8b6bbacked Yes1c104,889$839 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$839.1110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9475…6d62backed Yes1c104,829$839 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$838.6310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9269…e76abacked Yes1c103,851$831 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$830.8110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf404…a8d7backed Yes1c102,231$818 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$817.8510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x85ea…a7b8backed Yes1c102,135$817 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$817.0810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x752b…bd71backed Yes1c102,106$817 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$816.8510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba5e…dbf7backed Yes1c101,815$815 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$814.5210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2fc3…bf02backed Yes1c101,616$813 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$812.9310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3628…ac32backed Yes1c101,191$810 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$809.5310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe01b…5e46backed Yes1c100,820$807 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$806.5610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec50…ce1cbacked Yes1c100,375$803 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae31…2288backed Yes1c99,881$799 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$799.0510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9dca…18cfbacked Yes1c98,890$791 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$791.1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3317…1462backed Yes1c98,131$785 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$785.0510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe40…a5e7backed Yes1c97,900$783 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$783.210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x75b5…b947backed Yes1c97,609$781 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$780.8710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x760e…8dc4backed Yes1c97,398$779 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$779.1810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f4b…c7b1backed Yes1c97,336$779 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$778.6910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd90…874abacked Yes1c97,126$777 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$777.0110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x159a…299fbacked Yes1c96,808$774 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$774.4610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9499…cf81backed Yes1c96,333$771 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$770.6610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9a7a…ae67backed Yes1c95,681$765 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$765.4510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa42b…667dbacked Yes1c95,341$763 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$762.7310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd472…0df3backed Yes1c95,340$763 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$762.7210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1863…950ebacked Yes1c94,968$760 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$759.7410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c83…6deabacked Yes1c94,509$756 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$756.0710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1607…f112backed Yes1c93,749$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$749.9910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xab68…55a3backed Yes1c93,581$749 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$748.6510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2879…c9cbbacked Yes1c92,931$743 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$743.4510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a18…161fbacked Yes1c92,794$742 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$742.3510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c82…beb1backed Yes1c92,650$741 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$741.210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0ecd…0b0cbacked Yes1c92,503$740 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$740.0210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0682…eb9abacked Yes1c91,868$735 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$734.9410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3833…7dc2backed Yes1c91,348$731 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$730.7810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbe61…132ebacked Yes1c91,280$730 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$730.2410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.