Us Politics · resolved market
Will Elon Musk be the first elected Speaker of the House for the 119th congress?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2fc8f8cc40668ba16c45d37f45d0bd8a3601c4d84d9c0d50f83bf3ded5f580bf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,649,996
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $445,575
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,649,996 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 128 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x48e7…d5f8backed Yes | 0c | 50,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedc1…b493backed Yes | 1c | 41,412$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.71 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf119…b8a1backed Yes | 0c | 40,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf202…5fbfbacked Yes | 1c | 35,803$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.23 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd54…bb52backed Yes | 1c | 34,854$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.69 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67fa…0910backed Yes | 1c | 34,076$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.68 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc930…9ed4backed Yes | 1c | 30,441$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.18 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3b…0c5ebacked Yes | 1c | 30,406$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5923…511abacked Yes | 1c | 29,230$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.07 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8dcd…bf68backed Yes | 1c | 27,699$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a9b…2a7ebacked Yes | 1c | 27,231$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0588…6743backed Yes | 1c | 26,510$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.59 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd965…fedbbacked Yes | 1c | 26,264$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.38 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa45b…e373backed Yes | 1c | 25,672$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.05 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d9a…bda0backed Yes | 1c | 25,353$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8420…e8ddbacked Yes | 1c | 24,503$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.53 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82d6…455cbacked Yes | 1c | 23,784$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.06 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9be8…19b2backed Yes | 1c | 19,646$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.81 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb263…5c63backed Yes | 1c | 18,966$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.69 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2524…b678backed Yes | 1c | 18,919$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.27 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab38…cb64backed Yes | 1c | 18,426$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.83 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x648a…3644backed Yes | 1c | 18,334$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.01 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57fc…3affbacked Yes | 1c | 18,319$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.87 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38d8…8b4fbacked Yes | 1c | 18,069$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.62 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59f0…a97ebacked Yes | 1c | 18,007$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.06 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe302…b5cdbacked Yes | 1c | 17,579$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe12e…1995backed Yes | 1c | 17,412$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.71 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf620…26d8backed Yes | 1c | 17,400$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bf2…5be5backed Yes | 1c | 16,961$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc155…6cdabacked Yes | 1c | 16,937$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.43 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b8d…7423backed Yes | 1c | 16,908$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b3f…df55backed Yes | 1c | 16,874$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x706a…2330backed Yes | 1c | 16,853$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.68 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37d8…dadabacked Yes | 1c | 16,637$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.73 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4e8…a842backed Yes | 1c | 16,628$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe91d…2a7abacked Yes | 1c | 16,611$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7878…b3debacked Yes | 1c | 16,210$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.89 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc4…56d3backed Yes | 1c | 15,907$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9485…7a1cbacked Yes | 1c | 15,707$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03db…2e68backed Yes | 1c | 15,034$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.31 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 0c | 15,000$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 284 | 7.7%22 W · 262 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e8f…80cdbacked Yes | 1c | 14,506$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…798dbacked Yes | 1c | 13,658$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.92 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x642f…c3adbacked Yes | 1c | 11,767$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd152…f201backed Yes | 3c | 11,534$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d97…7619backed Yes | 1c | 11,322$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd298…42aebacked Yes | 1c | 11,035$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.39 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 8cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7860…4694backed Yes | 3c | 11,001$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +371.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 0c | 10,471$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.34 | 240 | 0%0 W · 240 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x171a…69debacked Yes | 3c | 10,320$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9683…3c42backed Yes | 1c | 10,268$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.41 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83f3…4d87backed Yes | 1c | 10,178$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1227…8bd3backed Yes | 1c | 10,176$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.58 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b86…4b5bbacked Yes | 1c | 10,153$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.38 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1e6…1c49backed Yes | 1c | 10,072$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1209…9ce4backed Yes | 1c | 10,048$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.43 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71ed…d9ebbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0db4…6b52backed Yes | 1c | 9,991$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.92 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56b6…b0ddbacked Yes | 1c | 9,973$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.76 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa555…1137backed Yes | 1c | 9,741$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.67 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa91f…5fb3backed Yes | 1c | 9,690$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f04…774bbacked Yes | 1c | 9,303$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf26…18ebbacked Yes | 1c | 9,047$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.42 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x270e…f5b4backed Yes | 1c | 8,673$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.06 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76dd…6928backed Yes | 1c | 8,637$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.73 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12a1…cc0cbacked Yes | 1c | 8,621$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.59 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…7d4bbacked Yes | 1c | 8,604$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ba…f710backed Yes | 1c | 8,562$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.06 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7db8…2fccbacked Yes | 1c | 8,477$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1356…a1e4backed Yes | 1c | 8,460$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1629…594bbacked Yes | 1c | 8,459$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x947b…9b0bbacked Yes | 1c | 8,437$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.93 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a9e…bb9ebacked Yes | 1c | 8,414$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.73 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb3…74b9backed Yes | 1c | 8,356$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f8c…063abacked Yes | 1c | 8,310$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.79 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33fd…7afcbacked Yes | 1c | 8,297$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.67 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee57…4cb0backed Yes | 1c | 8,196$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.76 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d1b…3277backed Yes | 1c | 8,137$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.23 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf556…e165backed Yes | 1c | 8,124$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7b6…8259backed Yes | 1c | 8,121$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.09 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0615…9b9dbacked Yes | 1c | 7,077$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.69 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5152…4838backed Yes | 1c | 6,762$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.62 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f03…9191backed Yes | 1c | 6,179$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.61 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe753…756dbacked Yes | 1c | 5,557$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.01 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes | 2c | 5,183$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.8 | 124 | 4.8%6 W · 118 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -85.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5aea…bbaabacked Yes | 1c | 4,824$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.89 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ba…eea1backed Yes | 3c | 4,546$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.28 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xceb4…ee77backed Yes | 1c | 4,129$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 1c | 3,802$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.43 | 151 | 24.5%37 W · 114 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -42%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7960…f8a8backed Yes | 3c | 3,579$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.4 | 59 | 22%13 W · 46 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f11…b63fbacked Yes | 3c | 3,005$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.15 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.20per pick | 50cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb206…ec91backed Yes | 2c | 2,621$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea41…1c98backed Yes | 2c | 2,323$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.33 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85bf…cf2bbacked Yes | 1c | 2,138$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.24 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf36…1643backed Yes | 3c | 2,019$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.58 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked Yes | 1c | 2,011$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.33 | 189 | 14.3%27 W · 162 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x183a…9808backed Yes | 2c | 2,004$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2f…ae85backed Yes | 2c | 2,002$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf6a…32afbacked Yes | 3c | 2,002$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…e22fbacked Yes | 2c | 2,002$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk be the first elected Speaker of the House for the 119th congress?this page
- Will Donald Trump be the first elected Speaker of the House for the 119th congress?No won
- Will Austin Scott be the first elected Speaker of the House for the 119th congress?No won
- Will Byron Donalds be the first elected Speaker of the House for the 119th congress?No won
- Will Elise Stefanik be the first elected Speaker of the House for the 119th congress?No won
- Will Hakeem Jeffries be the first elected Speaker of the House for the 119th congress?No won
- Will Jack Bergman be the first elected Speaker of the House for the 119th congress?No won
- Will Jim Jordan be the first elected Speaker of the House for the 119th congress?No won
- Will Mike Johnson be the first elected Speaker of the House for the 119th congress?Yes won
- Will Pete Sessions be the first elected Speaker of the House for the 119th congress?No won
- Will Steve Scalise be the first elected Speaker of the House for the 119th congress?No won
- Will Thomas Massie be the first elected Speaker of the House for the 119th congress?No won
- Will Tom Emmer be the first elected Speaker of the House for the 119th congress?No won
- Will Vivek Ramaswamy be the first elected Speaker of the House for the 119th congress?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.