TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will Elon Musk be the first elected Speaker of the House for the 119th congress?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,649,996
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$445,575

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,649,996 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 128 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x48e7…d5f8backed Yes0c50,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50230%0 W · 23 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xedc1…b493backed Yes1c41,412$373 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$372.7120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf119…b8a1backed Yes0c40,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf202…5fbfbacked Yes1c35,803$322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$322.2320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd54…bb52backed Yes1c34,854$314 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$313.6920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x67fa…0910backed Yes1c34,076$307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306.6820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc930…9ed4backed Yes1c30,441$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.1890%0 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f3b…0c5ebacked Yes1c30,406$274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$273.6520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5923…511abacked Yes1c29,230$263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$263.0720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8dcd…bf68backed Yes1c27,699$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.2920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a9b…2a7ebacked Yes1c27,231$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245.0820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0588…6743backed Yes1c26,510$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238.5920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd965…fedbbacked Yes1c26,264$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.3820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa45b…e373backed Yes1c25,672$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.0520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3d9a…bda0backed Yes1c25,353$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228.1820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8420…e8ddbacked Yes1c24,503$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.5320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x82d6…455cbacked Yes1c23,784$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.0620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9be8…19b2backed Yes1c19,646$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.8120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb263…5c63backed Yes1c18,966$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.6920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2524…b678backed Yes1c18,919$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.2720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xab38…cb64backed Yes1c18,426$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.8320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x648a…3644backed Yes1c18,334$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.0120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x57fc…3affbacked Yes1c18,319$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.8720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x38d8…8b4fbacked Yes1c18,069$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.6220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x59f0…a97ebacked Yes1c18,007$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.0620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe302…b5cdbacked Yes1c17,579$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.2120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe12e…1995backed Yes1c17,412$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.7120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf620…26d8backed Yes1c17,400$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8bf2…5be5backed Yes1c16,961$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.6520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc155…6cdabacked Yes1c16,937$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.4320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b8d…7423backed Yes1c16,908$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.1720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b3f…df55backed Yes1c16,874$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x706a…2330backed Yes1c16,853$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.6820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x37d8…dadabacked Yes1c16,637$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.7320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb4e8…a842backed Yes1c16,628$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.6520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe91d…2a7abacked Yes1c16,611$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7878…b3debacked Yes1c16,210$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.8920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9dc4…56d3backed Yes1c15,907$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.1620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9485…7a1cbacked Yes1c15,707$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.3620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x03db…2e68backed Yes1c15,034$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.3120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes0c15,000$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$672847.7%22 W · 262 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick7cpaid-40.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e8f…80cdbacked Yes1c14,506$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.5520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8971…798dbacked Yes1c13,658$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.9220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x642f…c3adbacked Yes1c11,767$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd152…f201backed Yes3c11,534$338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$338.230%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d97…7619backed Yes1c11,322$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd298…42aebacked Yes1c11,035$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.39520%1 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick8cpaid-34.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7860…4694backed Yes3c11,001$357 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$357633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick23cpaid+371.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc613…662bbacked Yes0c10,471$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.342400%0 W · 240 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x171a…69debacked Yes3c10,320$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9683…3c42backed Yes1c10,268$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.4120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x83f3…4d87backed Yes1c10,178$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1227…8bd3backed Yes1c10,176$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.5820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b86…4b5bbacked Yes1c10,153$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.3820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa1e6…1c49backed Yes1c10,072$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.6520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1209…9ce4backed Yes1c10,048$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.4320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x71ed…d9ebbacked Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102532%8 W · 17 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-36.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0db4…6b52backed Yes1c9,991$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.9220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x56b6…b0ddbacked Yes1c9,973$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.7620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa555…1137backed Yes1c9,741$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.6720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa91f…5fb3backed Yes1c9,690$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.2120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f04…774bbacked Yes1c9,303$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.2420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf26…18ebbacked Yes1c9,047$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.4220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x270e…f5b4backed Yes1c8,673$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.0620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x76dd…6928backed Yes1c8,637$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.7320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x12a1…cc0cbacked Yes1c8,621$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.5920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe59d…7d4bbacked Yes1c8,604$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.4420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc7ba…f710backed Yes1c8,562$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.0620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7db8…2fccbacked Yes1c8,477$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.2920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1356…a1e4backed Yes1c8,460$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.1420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1629…594bbacked Yes1c8,459$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.1320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x947b…9b0bbacked Yes1c8,437$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.9320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a9e…bb9ebacked Yes1c8,414$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.7320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbeb3…74b9backed Yes1c8,356$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f8c…063abacked Yes1c8,310$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.7920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x33fd…7afcbacked Yes1c8,297$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.6720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee57…4cb0backed Yes1c8,196$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.7650%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d1b…3277backed Yes1c8,137$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.2320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf556…e165backed Yes1c8,124$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.1220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf7b6…8259backed Yes1c8,121$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.0920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0615…9b9dbacked Yes1c7,077$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.6920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5152…4838backed Yes1c6,762$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.6230%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f03…9191backed Yes1c6,179$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.6120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe753…756dbacked Yes1c5,557$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.0120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes2c5,183$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.81244.8%6 W · 118 L-3.4wins-0.03per pick8cpaid-85.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5aea…bbaabacked Yes1c4,824$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.8920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb6ba…eea1backed Yes3c4,546$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.281723.5%4 W · 13 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick29cpaid-63.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xceb4…ee77backed Yes1c4,129$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x24c8…23e1backed Yes1c3,802$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.4315124.5%37 W · 114 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-42%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7960…f8a8backed Yes3c3,579$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.45922%13 W · 46 L-4.0wins-0.07per pick29cpaid-35.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2f11…b63fbacked Yes3c3,005$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.151369.2%9 W · 4 L+2.6wins+0.20per pick50cpaid+18.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xb206…ec91backed Yes2c2,621$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.3220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea41…1c98backed Yes2c2,323$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.336137.7%23 W · 38 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x85bf…cf2bbacked Yes1c2,138$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.2430%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaf36…1643backed Yes3c2,019$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.5820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x18a7…d21abacked Yes1c2,011$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.3318914.3%27 W · 162 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick12cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x183a…9808backed Yes2c2,004$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.0810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb2f…ae85backed Yes2c2,002$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.0510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf6a…32afbacked Yes3c2,002$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.0510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf520…e22fbacked Yes2c2,002$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.0410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.