Us Politics · resolved market
Will Jim Jordan be the first elected Speaker of the House for the 119th congress?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8a2af36b760cae72ad72ce391429a3599923ea0c5c91f0f7a0e8e834d0e2a518
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $357,192
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $503,760
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $357,192 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x21f9…ed12backed Yes | 1c | 13,455$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.5 | 102 | 11.8%12 W · 90 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -72.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d31…9862backed Yes | 10c | 5,731$544 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$544.45 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +38%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed Yes | 11c | 5,000$555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$555 | 156 | 46.8%73 W · 83 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 1c | 4,717$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.29 | 240 | 0%0 W · 240 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes | 3c | 4,434$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.2 | 124 | 4.8%6 W · 118 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -85.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 3c | 3,879$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.36 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e4…b676backed Yes | 4c | 3,438$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.08 | 97 | 46.4%45 W · 52 L | +9.5wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6367…e938backed Yes | 1c | 3,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 94 | 26.6%25 W · 69 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 4c | 2,956$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.53 | 210 | 22.4%47 W · 163 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 2c | 2,550$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.06 | 355 | 19.7%70 W · 285 L | -16.3wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1d4…6775backed Yes | 1c | 2,272$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea3e…b956backed Yes | 6c | 2,000$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 88 | 43.2%38 W · 50 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa66b…0b8bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,777$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.77 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 3c | 1,453$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.95 | 172 | 25%43 W · 129 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc930…9ed4backed Yes | 2c | 1,127$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb702…e291backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bd9…bd75backed Yes | 3c | 995$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.11 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 7cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5446…18f6backed Yes | 8c | 952$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.38 | 91 | 42.9%39 W · 52 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5754…e515backed Yes | 9c | 894.16$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.55 | 216 | 34.3%74 W · 142 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65b1…1b3ebacked Yes | 1c | 809.13$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c91…1971backed Yes | 3c | 701.26$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.05 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.4wins | +0.34per pick | 38cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a0…81afbacked Yes | 2c | 688.44$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0705…9dfcbacked Yes | 6c | 511.52$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.9 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe466…ddbdbacked Yes | 2c | 509.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd347…5205backed Yes | 7c | 503$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.92 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -18%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7960…f8a8backed Yes | 11c | 400$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.8 | 59 | 22%13 W · 46 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7850…2e01backed Yes | 6c | 362.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2f8…3e9dbacked Yes | 4c | 301$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.57 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +25%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 6c | 273$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.04 | 130 | 29.2%38 W · 92 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc452…b711backed Yes | 5c | 250$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2368…87b4backed Yes | 6c | 224$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 10c | 200$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 193 | 28.5%55 W · 138 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed Yes | 13c | 199.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 76 | 56.6%43 W · 33 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x07e6…bb84backed Yes | 6c | 191$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb473…bab5backed Yes | 6c | 190$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdeac…20f3backed Yes | 6c | 190$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c34…227bbacked Yes | 6c | 190$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 14c | 184.15$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.7 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ea9…e97ebacked Yes | 6c | 180$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f88…4da0backed Yes | 7c | 171.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 11cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ba…eea1backed Yes | 7c | 160$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d47…cf08backed Yes | 6c | 156.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 14c | 127.37$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 303 | 19.1%58 W · 245 L | -20.6wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Jim Jordan be the first elected Speaker of the House for the 119th congress?this page
- Will Donald Trump be the first elected Speaker of the House for the 119th congress?No won
- Will Austin Scott be the first elected Speaker of the House for the 119th congress?No won
- Will Byron Donalds be the first elected Speaker of the House for the 119th congress?No won
- Will Elise Stefanik be the first elected Speaker of the House for the 119th congress?No won
- Will Elon Musk be the first elected Speaker of the House for the 119th congress?No won
- Will Hakeem Jeffries be the first elected Speaker of the House for the 119th congress?No won
- Will Jack Bergman be the first elected Speaker of the House for the 119th congress?No won
- Will Mike Johnson be the first elected Speaker of the House for the 119th congress?Yes won
- Will Pete Sessions be the first elected Speaker of the House for the 119th congress?No won
- Will Steve Scalise be the first elected Speaker of the House for the 119th congress?No won
- Will Thomas Massie be the first elected Speaker of the House for the 119th congress?No won
- Will Tom Emmer be the first elected Speaker of the House for the 119th congress?No won
- Will Vivek Ramaswamy be the first elected Speaker of the House for the 119th congress?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.