TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xe065…d25f

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
92
Categories scored
17
Categories below 50
11

Best Category: China Taiwan, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category China Taiwan at 54 out of 100; worst Us Midterms at 43.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NFL Inactivelast resolved Jan 17, 2026, EST4443.2%19 W · 25 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-13.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NFL — the 44 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Bills vs. Broncosbacked Bills · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST-100%-$30
Chargers vs. Patriotsbacked Chargers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST-100%-$14.2
Bills vs. Jaguarsbacked Bills · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST+117.4%+$23.48
Eagles vs. Billsbacked Bills · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2025, EST-100%-$11
Bills vs. Patriotsbacked Bills · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST+578.8%+$57.91
Bills vs. Dolphinsbacked Bills · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 9, 2025, EST-100%-$24.4
Will DJ Moore be traded before the 2025 NFL trade deadlinebacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$53Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST+25.6%+$13.53
Bills vs. Falconsbacked Bills · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$24.5
Patriots vs. Billsbacked Bills · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Spread: Bills (-6.5)backed Bills · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$17.25
Eagles vs. Chiefsbacked Eagles · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 14, 2025, EDT+97%+$19.39
Commanders vs. Packersbacked Commanders · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$12.09
Vikings vs. Bearsbacked Vikings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 9, 2025, EDT+96.1%+$19.22
Ravens vs. Billsbacked Bills · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 8, 2025, EDT+112.8%+$15.52
Will Coinbase run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2025, EST-100%-$50.02
Will the Super Bowl national anthem last between 120 and 130 seconds?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$441Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2025, EST-100%-$441.35
Will the Super Bowl national anthem last between 110 and 120 seconds?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$1,161Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2025, EST+32.7%+$379.42
Will Kanye West perform during Super Bowl LIX halftime show?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2025, EST-100%-$57.33
Will the Bills win the AFC Championship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$275Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 27, 2025, EST-100%-$274.81
Will the Bills win Super Bowl 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$455Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 27, 2025, EST-100%-$455.02
Bills vs. Chiefsbacked Bills · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$460Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 27, 2025, EST-100%-$460
Texans vs. Chiefsbacked Texans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2025, EST-100%-$36
Broncos vs. Billsbacked Broncos · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$63Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2025, EST-100%-$63.24
Vikings vs. Lionsbacked Lions · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2025, EST+69.5%+$8.2
Will the Cincinnati Bengals make the 2024-25 NFL Playoffs?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 5, 2025, EST-100%-$10
Showing 25 of 44 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT1258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+14.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Swalwell, Mills, Gonzales, and Cherfilus-McCormick all out by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+87.6%+$23.85
Will anyone vote "No" to releasing the Epstein files?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$666Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST+131.1%+$872.82
U.S. Closes Airspace due to Government Shutdown?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST-100%-$70
Will between 219 and 220 U.S. House members vote "Yea" on the next funding bill by November 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$122Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST+63.7%+$77.8
Will the Government shutdown end October 15+?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 15, 2025, EDT+47.1%+$9.6
Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 13?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$44.09
Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 12?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$49Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 13, 2025, EDT+29.8%+$14.64
Will Ron Paul be a member of the Trump administration? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$63Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$63.29
TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$68Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2025, EST-100%-$68
Will Tom Emmer be the first elected Speaker of the House for the 119th congress?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2025, EST-100%-$11.33
Will Bitcoin hit $100k in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$1,320Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2024, EST+28.7%+$378.73
Will Joe pardon Hunter Biden?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2024, EST+284.6%+$37
All 12 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved May 19, 2026, EDT728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.15per pick44cpaid-30.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
NHL — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Middle East Inactivelast resolved Apr 8, 2026, EDT475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.24per pick51cpaid+27.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Middle East — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Boxing Inactivelast resolved Feb 16, 2026, EST40%0 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Boxing — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved May 19, 2026, EDT40%0 W · 4 L-1.9wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Apr 24, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.31per pick35cpaid+29%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Nov 1, 2025, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
AI — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by October 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT+100%+$100
OpenAI public release of search product by Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2024, EDT-100%-$10.36
All 2 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Feb 14, 2025, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Tweets — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Kanye tweet 700 or more times February 8-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$118Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 14, 2025, EST-100%-$117.8
Will Trump post 50 or more times this week?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 16, 2024, EDT-100%-$30.51
All 2 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Aztec launch a token in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$165Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$165
Will Kanye launch a coin in March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$227Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$227.02
All 2 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved Mar 28, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
Music — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Kanye release BULLY by March 27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$119Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$119.1
Will Kanye West release an album in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$30
All 2 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Oct 1, 2024, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Brazil unban X before October?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$36Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2024, EDT+38.9%+$14
All 1 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+35.1%+$5.2
All 1 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Nov 4, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bitcoin dip below $100k before 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 4, 2025, EST-100%-$34
All 1 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Jan 31, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Weather — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Palisades fire be fully contained by January 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2025, EST-100%-$12.2
All 1 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 4, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$64Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2026, EST-100%-$64
All 1 picks, newest first.
UFC Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
UFC — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Magomedov vs. Pagebacked Magomedov · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2025, EST-100%-$33
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.