TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Texans vs. Chiefs

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Chiefsof Texans, Chiefs
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,538,113
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,939,909

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,538,113 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 403 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2fe6…ab9dbacked Texans18c270,717$47,395 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47,394.920634.5%71 W · 135 L-0.2wins0.00per pick35cpaid-24.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b0e…78ddbacked Texans18c247,000$43,390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43,389.923943.6%17 W · 22 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-10%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xad3e…4422backed Chiefs76c214,038$162,428 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51,609.563650%18 W · 18 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-9.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb35b…fc08backed Texans13c146,053$19,314 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,313.6717823%41 W · 137 L-5.1wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-48.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x45d1…20efbacked Texans21c139,579$29,303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29,302.85475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.19per pick56cpaid+14.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1638…339bbacked Texans18c129,165$23,432 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23,432.17041.4%29 W · 41 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-10.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe847…f8bdbacked Texans0c100,833$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.76771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.20per pick51cpaid+24.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1484…cafebacked Texans18c94,317$17,077 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,076.74755.3%26 W · 21 L+5.0wins+0.11per pick45cpaid+4.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x53d2…0c3fbacked Chiefs79c93,217$73,986 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,230.255644.6%25 W · 31 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+7.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2863…0e3ebacked Texans15c78,220$11,789 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,788.671833.3%6 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-34.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf15…53c8backed Texans18c63,889$11,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,5001631.3%5 W · 11 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick40cpaid-36.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9d45…b661backed Texans10c63,581$6,510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,509.978218.3%15 W · 67 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick14cpaid-23.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4cc3…7552backed Texans19c55,860$10,497 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,497.0925137.5%94 W · 157 L-18.6wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-22.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x0269…cb2dbacked Texans16c49,656$8,098 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,098.4944246.8%207 W · 235 L+10.7wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-1.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x865c…ea31backed Texans2c46,096$949 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$949.37185.6%1 W · 17 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick9cpaid-87.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc58d…9373backed Texans4c38,741$1,462 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,462.229245.7%42 W · 50 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe932…0f05backed Texans17c27,444$4,766 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,765.849754.6%53 W · 44 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-5.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x941b…d05abacked Texans20c22,500$4,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,500933.3%3 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.11per pick22cpaid+11.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa22b…3525backed Texans13c20,016$2,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,60080%0 W · 8 L-2.4wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9ac5…6a3dbacked Texans19c20,000$3,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,699.964436.4%16 W · 28 L-3.8wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-28.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9267…0f9abacked Chiefs80c18,854$15,083 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,770.8124652%128 W · 118 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe77f…4374backed Texans22c18,697$4,192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,192.443135.5%11 W · 20 L-2.8wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-30.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x187c…ca3cbacked Texans4c18,294$763 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$762.8420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x91b0…f0b6backed Texans22c18,149$3,930 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,930.142250%11 W · 11 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x649f…993ebacked Texans21c15,135$3,122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,121.884746.8%22 W · 25 L+2.2wins+0.05per pick42cpaid-6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9a45…cf97backed Texans2c13,888$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.831833.3%6 W · 12 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-16.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ba5…aaf1backed Texans11c13,639$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,499.7113942.4%59 W · 80 L-5.6wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa6ac…b899backed Texans17c12,346$2,099 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,098.82937.9%11 W · 18 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-23.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5de8…cfb9backed Texans3c11,817$331 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3315939%23 W · 36 L+3.2wins+0.05per pick34cpaid-6.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x53ec…df91backed Texans15c11,152$1,629 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,628.8222434.4%77 W · 147 L+8.4wins+0.04per pick31cpaid-19.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x744b…6132backed Chiefs79c10,495$8,284 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,211.442245.5%10 W · 12 L-0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb79…c2c6backed Texans24c8,344$1,963 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,962.789645.8%44 W · 52 L+3.6wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x72db…27b0backed Texans14c8,032$1,122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1221030%3 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick26cpaid-41.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xae76…dce5backed Texans19c7,144$1,329 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,328.627339.2%107 W · 166 L-13.1wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-14.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8fe7…4f20backed Texans19c7,000$1,330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,3302626.9%7 W · 19 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-10.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32cf…8647backed Texans20c6,638$1,347 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,347425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-65.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x574e…3ef1backed Texans20c6,327$1,279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,278.610334%35 W · 68 L-6.5wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-33.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4851…16dbbacked Texans14c6,000$820 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82021251.9%110 W · 102 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa315…cabbbacked Texans17c5,620$955 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$955.3928447.5%135 W · 149 L-5.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ee2…46e1backed Texans15c5,451$807 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$806.692520%5 W · 20 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-61.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3ff9…bb89backed Chiefs75c5,331$3,998 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,332.819952.5%52 W · 47 L-7.4wins-0.07per pick60cpaid-15.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2376…30f5backed Texans17c5,257$875 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87510452.9%55 W · 49 L+4.5wins+0.04per pick49cpaid-1.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7990…c870backed Chiefs77c5,125$3,968 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,157.328953.9%48 W · 41 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd94f…8936backed Chiefs79c5,032$3,981 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,050.06580%4 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.20per pick60cpaid+34.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xba68…ce61backed Texans19c5,000$950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$950450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-27.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x66af…d58ebacked Texans18c5,000$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$900616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick19cpaid-66%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a8b…b1c8backed Texans19c5,000$936 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$936.1114445.8%66 W · 78 L-4.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x19d8…1691backed Texans15c4,970$745 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$745.447833.3%26 W · 52 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-32.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7691…dfc0backed Texans20c4,931$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0006947.8%33 W · 36 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-15.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8511…4a6bbacked Texans21c4,400$924 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9246752.2%35 W · 32 L+3.3wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfbaa…06c3backed Texans10c4,352$444 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$443.5850%0 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2d27…76d8backed Texans17c4,128$720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$720.11769.1%16 W · 160 L-5.7wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-43%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xea3e…b956backed Chiefs79c4,118$3,252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$865.8924351.4%125 W · 118 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-11.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x41cc…fd45backed Texans14c4,092$582 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$582.2740%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Texans17c4,000$680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68010624.5%26 W · 80 L-12.6wins-0.12per pick36cpaid-40.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xecb1…5da3backed Texans17c4,000$680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68019645.4%89 W · 107 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-1.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x52ec…5124backed Texans18c3,985$731 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$730.771513.3%2 W · 13 L-1.6wins-0.11per pick24cpaid-66.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6a60…d019backed Texans17c3,938$661 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$661.4510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8ff4…eb8ebacked Texans3c3,916$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.63922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-26.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcefa…bef8backed Chiefs80c3,750$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75016259.9%97 W · 65 L+6.6wins+0.04per pick56cpaid-0.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4e43…43dfbacked Texans20c3,708$742 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$741.6520%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf65e…a55abacked Texans20c3,596$720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$719.52742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick37cpaid-14.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb8c4…7385backed Texans19c3,304$617 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$617.2911139.6%44 W · 67 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-14.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x03cb…4bf9backed Texans16c3,214$506 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505.691553.3%8 W · 7 L+2.2wins+0.15per pick38cpaid+41.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5a5e…c869backed Texans20c3,192$638 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$638.4711738.5%45 W · 72 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-9.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2f44…3ae9backed Texans13c3,007$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4002128.6%6 W · 15 L-2.5wins-0.12per pick41cpaid-42.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4673…d99bbacked Chiefs80c3,000$2,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60028556.5%161 W · 124 L+9.3wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+3.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7bbf…2760backed Texans18c2,780$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500.41631.3%5 W · 11 L-2.1wins-0.13per pick44cpaid-50.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe47c…3afabacked Texans23c2,613$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6001330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.11per pick42cpaid-37.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd234…43fcbacked Texans9c2,600$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2294337.2%16 W · 27 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Texans17c2,592$435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$434.820555.6%114 W · 91 L+15.7wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+17.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Texans18c2,550$459 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4594226.2%11 W · 31 L-2.2wins-0.05per pick31cpaid-8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x75e0…fe50backed Texans11c2,500$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27510960.6%66 W · 43 L+7.8wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+1.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xae24…07c2backed Chiefs75c2,500$1,875 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6253941%16 W · 23 L-1.9wins-0.05per pick46cpaid+24.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa4f8…0361backed Texans20c2,500$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick28cpaid-66%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9353…cdbebacked Chiefs78c2,480$1,935 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$545.068348.2%40 W · 43 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+77.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3fa3…dc66backed Texans11c2,432$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$265.372245.5%10 W · 12 L+1.7wins+0.08per pick38cpaid+0.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x44f7…266fbacked Texans2c2,400$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.2175.9%1 W · 16 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick3cpaid+12%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c82…e0cbbacked Chiefs80c2,385$1,899 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$486.0914147.5%67 W · 74 L+7.7wins+0.05per pick42cpaid-5.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Texans17c2,369$410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$409.7523850.8%121 W · 117 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x542c…f12bbacked Texans1c2,330$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.689724.7%24 W · 73 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick21cpaid+48.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5482…b6eebacked Texans4c2,291$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.861128%9 W · 103 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick4cpaid+413.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6084…79c6backed Texans18c2,282$411 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$410.78855.7%49 W · 39 L+4.1wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb68f…22f4backed Texans23c2,174$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5002133.3%7 W · 14 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-36.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1ba1…2af6backed Texans19c2,028$376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$375.5520%1 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick30cpaid-60%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6540…639abacked Chiefs77c2,000$1,539 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$461475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.16per pick59cpaid+8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec92…98f5backed Chiefs80c2,000$1,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40014757.1%84 W · 63 L-3.3wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-6.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x480d…f219backed Texans25c2,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50033047.9%158 W · 172 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9fe0…6ff6backed Texans17c1,993$337 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$336.75250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick18cpaid+163.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xaf00…de3fbacked Texans10c1,941$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.6150%0 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7bc9…7361backed Texans20c1,819$357 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3571330.8%4 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick28cpaid-38.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3d69…9829backed Texans17c1,773$293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293.418650%43 W · 43 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-13.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6cff…c3dabacked Texans12c1,759$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.653821.1%8 W · 30 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick20cpaid+55.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac46…fa1bbacked Texans13c1,707$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228.62040%8 W · 12 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-16.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcece…dc07backed Texans19c1,619$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3021735.3%6 W · 11 L+1.7wins+0.10per pick25cpaid-4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe938…9e62backed Texans13c1,604$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.56633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+18.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe425…6155backed Texans20c1,600$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32040%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9bdd…9df2backed Texans13c1,586$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.15540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-33.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6aa7…5455backed Texans19c1,579$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3007544%33 W · 42 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-8.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x31db…79a4backed Texans20c1,508$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3005825.9%15 W · 43 L-3.9wins-0.07per pick33cpaid-44.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.