TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xa6ac…b899

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
143
Categories scored
13
Categories below 50
9

Best Category: Fifa International, grading 52 out of 100 (+0.02 per pick).

Best Category Fifa International at 52 out of 100; worst NHL at 43.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NBA Inactivelast resolved Feb 6, 2026, EST6943.5%30 W · 39 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
NBA — the 69 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Jazz vs. Hawksbacked Hawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$532Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST+40.8%+$217.5
Hornets vs. Mavericksbacked Hornets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$77Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST+72.4%+$55.44
Bucks vs. Wizardsbacked Wizards · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2026, EST+112.8%+$26.83
Kings vs. 76ersbacked 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$330Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2026, EST+28.2%+$93.19
Pacers vs. Hawksbacked Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$800Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 26, 2026, EST-100%-$800
Kings vs. Cavaliersbacked Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$390Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2026, EST+28.2%+$110
Bulls vs. Timberwolvesbacked Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$740Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2026, EST-100%-$739.99
Knicks vs. Warriorsbacked Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$641Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2026, EST+44.9%+$288.14
Cavaliers vs. Timberwolvesbacked Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$168Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 9, 2026, EST-100%-$168.5
Nuggets vs. Celticsbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$51Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 7, 2026, EST+244.8%+$125.67
Magic vs. Wizardsbacked Wizards · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$1,393Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 7, 2026, EST+36.4%+$506.67
Knicks vs. Pistonsbacked Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$198Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 5, 2026, EST+102%+$202
Thunder vs. Sunsbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$400Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 5, 2026, EST-100%-$400
Timberwolves vs. Heatbacked Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$150Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST+66.7%+$100
Hawks vs. Knicksbacked Hawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$107Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 2, 2026, EST+132.6%+$142.5
Nets vs. Wizardsbacked Nets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 2, 2026, EST-100%-$47.5
Pacers vs. Thunderbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$286Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2025, EDT+42.9%+$122.55
Knicks vs. Pacersbacked Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$114Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2025, EDT+75.4%+$85.82
Raptors vs. Magicbacked Magic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$780Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2025, EST-100%-$780
Trail Blazers vs. Cavaliersbacked Trail Blazers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$954Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2025, EST-100%-$954
Nuggets vs. Celticsbacked Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$587Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2025, EST+51.5%+$302.55
Warriors vs. Magicbacked Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$196Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2025, EST+300.1%+$587.98
Grizzlies vs. Sunsbacked Suns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$1,384Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2025, EST-100%-$1,384.27
76ers vs. Bucksbacked Bucks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$312Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2025, EST+92.3%+$288
Suns vs. Thunderbacked Suns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$350Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2025, EST-100%-$349.98
Showing 25 of 69 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 9, 2026, EST2937.9%11 W · 18 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-23.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NFL — the 29 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
AJ Barner: Anytime Touchdownbacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$119Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$118.71
Ravens vs. Steelersbacked Steelers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$287Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 5, 2026, EST+66.7%+$191.2
Panthers vs. Buccaneersbacked Panthers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$85Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST-100%-$85
Lions vs. Ravensbacked Ravens · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$2,308Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$2,308.29
Cardinals vs. 49ersbacked 49ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$1,177Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 21, 2025, EDT+96.1%+$1,131.07
Chargers vs. Raidersbacked Raiders · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$750Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$750
Super Bowl LIX Winnerbacked Eagles · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$948Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2025, EST+105.6%+$1,001.48
Bills vs. Chiefsbacked Bills · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$1,209Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 27, 2025, EST-100%-$1,209
Commanders vs. Eaglesbacked Eagles · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 26, 2025, EST+47.1%+$14.4
Rams vs. Eaglesbacked Rams · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$1,001Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2025, EST-100%-$1,001
Texans vs. Chiefsbacked Texans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$2,099Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2025, EST-100%-$2,098.8
Chargers vs. Texansbacked Texans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$1,025Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2025, EST+143.9%+$1,475
Chargers vs. Raidersbacked Raiders · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$1,250Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 5, 2025, EST-100%-$1,250
Jaguars vs. Coltsbacked Jaguars · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$351Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 5, 2025, EST-100%-$350.97
Commanders vs. Cowboysbacked Cowboys · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 5, 2025, EST-100%-$25
Bengals vs. Steelersbacked Bengals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$1,500Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 5, 2025, EST+78.6%+$1,178.57
Lions vs. 49ersbacked 49ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$6,235Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2024, EST-100%-$6,235.23
Falcons vs. Commandersbacked Falcons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$3,423Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2024, EST-100%-$3,423.48
Packers vs. Vikingsbacked Vikings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$3,007Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 29, 2024, EST+100.7%+$3,027
Dolphins vs. Brownsbacked Dolphins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$215Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 29, 2024, EST+61.3%+$131.8
Chargers vs. Patriotsbacked Patriots · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$1,832Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2024, EST-100%-$1,832.48
Seahawks vs. Bearsbacked Bears · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$2,483Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 27, 2024, EST-100%-$2,483.27
Buccaneers vs. Cowboysbacked Cowboys · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$1,386Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2024, EST+160.7%+$2,226.82
Patriots vs. Billsbacked Patriots · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$63Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 22, 2024, EST-100%-$63
Vikings vs. Seahawksbacked Seahawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$647Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 22, 2024, EST-100%-$646.55
Showing 25 of 29 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Jan 20, 2026, EST1118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick21cpaid+66.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Champions League — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2026-01-20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$144Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST+733.3%+$1,059.31
Will Qairat FK vs. Club Brugge KV end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST-100%-$10.44
Will Qairat FK win on 2026-01-20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST-100%-$12
Will Barcelona win on 2025-09-18?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$931Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$931.39
FIFA Club World Cup: Fluminense vs. Chelsea (To Advance) backed Fluminense · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$323Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$322.62
FIFA Club World Cup: PSG vs. Bayern (To Advance) backed Bayern · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$247Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$247.14
FIFA Club World Cup: Flamengo vs. Bayern Munich (To Advance)backed Flamengo · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$41.29
Will Bayern Munich vs. Celtic end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2025, EST+900%+$900
Will Bayern Munich beat Feyenoord?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2025, EST-100%-$200
Will the match between Feyenoord Rotterdam and Bayern Munich end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$143Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2025, EST-100%-$143.09
Will the match between Paris Saint-Germain and Manchester City end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2025, EST-100%-$10.2
All 11 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Jan 10, 2026, EST922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-18.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Premier League — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Charlton Athletic FC win on 2026-01-10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$27.34
Will Exeter City FC win on 2026-01-10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$66Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$66.44
Will Everton FC win on 2026-01-07?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$78Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 7, 2026, EST-100%-$78.47
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-01-07?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$285Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 7, 2026, EST-100%-$285.08
Manchester City FC vs. Chelsea FC: Both Teams to Scorebacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2026, EST-100%-$29.94
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-01-03?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST-100%-$22
Will West Ham win on 2025-02-22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2025, EST+233.3%+$25
Will Bournemouth vs. Crystal Palace end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 26, 2024, EST+300%+$80.83
Will Crystal Palace vs. Arsenal end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 21, 2024, EST-100%-$19.07
All 9 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Jan 8, 2026, EST812.5%1 W · 7 L-2.1wins-0.26per pick39cpaid-79.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
NHL — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Serie A Inactivelast resolved Jan 12, 2026, EST40%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Serie A — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved Jan 17, 2026, EST40%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jan 10, 2026, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.20per pick14cpaid-4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

La Liga Inactivelast resolved Jan 18, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.15per pick35cpaid-19.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
La Liga — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Europa Conference League Inactivelast resolved Jan 23, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Europa Conference League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Europa Conference League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Manchester United beat Rangers?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2025, EST+53.8%+$7.23
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Dec 17, 2024, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump get over 50% of the Popular Vote?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$315Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 17, 2024, EST-100%-$314.79
All 1 picks, newest first.
Boxing Inactivelast resolved Dec 21, 2024, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Boxing — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Fury beat Usyk?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$256Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 21, 2024, EST-100%-$256
All 1 picks, newest first.
MLB Inactivelast resolved Jun 26, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
MLB — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Braves vs. Metsbacked Braves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$480Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2025, EDT-100%-$480.25
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.