TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Magic vs. Wizards

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Wizardsof Magic, Wizards
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,978,761
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,358,370

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,978,761 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,049 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x060e…2384backed Wizards30c191,857$57,855 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134,001.918037.5%30 W · 50 L-5.0wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-7.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1bc0…4429backed Wizards28c102,352$28,635 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73,717.2348343.7%211 W · 272 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d3b…c46bbacked Magic72c84,943$61,159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61,159.287745.5%35 W · 42 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid+2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Magic72c75,891$54,669 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54,668.642,04548.4%990 W · 1,055 L-30.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Magic72c69,930$50,339 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50,339.262,09147.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L-56.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc660…bd28backed Magic70c57,478$39,951 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39,950.9859347%279 W · 314 L-7.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9267…0f9abacked Magic71c52,305$37,113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37,113.3359653.4%318 W · 278 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Magic70c49,510$34,834 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34,834.11,37450.1%689 W · 685 L+34.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7b6c…6305backed Wizards29c43,573$12,536 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31,036.497941.8%33 W · 46 L+3.8wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+20.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcd9b…414dbacked Wizards29c40,000$11,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28,40051844.4%230 W · 288 L+11.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+8.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Magic37c39,430$14,730 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,730.411,00334.7%348 W · 655 L-44.7wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-35.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcacf…35ffbacked Magic0c34,927$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.847211%7 W · 714 L-2.6wins0.00per pick1cpaid-32.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Magic71c33,637$23,771 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23,771.444,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x062a…c2a3backed Magic72c33,251$23,909 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23,909.0819048.4%92 W · 98 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+25.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Magic65c32,608$21,297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,297.012,29851.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L+65.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7ac4…3081backed Wizards29c32,000$9,280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,719.996454.7%35 W · 29 L+4.5wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+11.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x84cb…28adbacked Wizards66c30,445$20,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,444.7316846.4%78 W · 90 L-13.2wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-15.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Magic20c30,118$5,923 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,923.354,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x55a1…db28backed Wizards29c30,000$8,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,3005541.8%23 W · 32 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick43cpaid+1.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x5798…ab44backed Wizards28c30,000$8,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,599.9915740.8%64 W · 93 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc63…f1c7backed Magic72c24,447$17,601 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,600.8450653.2%269 W · 237 L+8.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c16…09cbbacked Magic71c22,914$16,269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,269.2413248.5%64 W · 68 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid+3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xead0…f3babacked Wizards28c17,500$4,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,6001,12448.6%546 W · 578 L+13.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf11…8399backed Wizards29c17,200$4,988 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,21237539.5%148 W · 227 L-1.2wins0.00per pick40cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfaba…51debacked Magic41c17,129$6,992 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,991.7610947.7%52 W · 57 L-0.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Magic28c15,616$4,327 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,326.682,16940.8%885 W · 1,284 L-8.7wins0.00per pick41cpaid-14.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Magic18c15,390$2,762 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,761.745,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ade…f5b0backed Magic61c15,350$9,299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,298.51,55652.8%822 W · 734 L+40.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+10.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1a65…15b1backed Magic70c15,000$10,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,5001850%9 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-18.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Magic71c15,000$10,650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,6502,15351.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L+76.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x57a8…6933backed Magic71c12,339$8,761 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,760.8392753.5%496 W · 431 L+20.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1062…ba59backed Wizards28c11,000$3,080 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,919.65850%4 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd269…8055backed Wizards28c10,714$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,714.2948938.7%189 W · 300 L-10.9wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Wizards61c10,485$6,422 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,062.611,19032%381 W · 809 L-58.1wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-34.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbce9…03e9backed Magic0c10,355$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.58820%0 W · 882 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc323…0171backed Wizards29c10,345$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,344.833568.6%24 W · 11 L+6.2wins+0.18per pick51cpaid+37.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Magic71c9,859$7,001 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,000.62,07853.6%1,113 W · 965 L+44.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x12fd…90c0backed Wizards29c9,833$2,852 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,981.4528439.8%113 W · 171 L+0.4wins0.00per pick40cpaid+4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Magic7c9,818$678 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$677.951,04549%512 W · 533 L+21.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5523…51e9backed Magic70c9,258$6,502 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,501.5161851.6%319 W · 299 L-1.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid+3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Magic71c9,239$6,587 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,586.879,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1286…b60cbacked Magic17c8,306$1,390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,3901030%3 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.12per pick42cpaid-36.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9f13…e0fdbacked Magic71c8,235$5,875 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,874.9972450.7%367 W · 357 L+13.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Wizards47c7,926$3,688 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,237.93,99548.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L+101.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3da4…28d7backed Wizards61c7,476$4,555 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,920.9916657.2%95 W · 71 L+10.2wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+13%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe916…4563backed Magic14c7,131$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0008846.6%41 W · 47 L+3.8wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed Magic67c7,000$4,685 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,68566250.8%336 W · 326 L+15.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f08…ed44backed Wizards65c6,893$4,472 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,420.7939744.3%176 W · 221 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-19.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd990…4866backed Magic72c6,788$4,887 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,887.051050%5 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-14.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeff7…4bb3backed Magic64c6,632$4,229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,229.152733.3%9 W · 18 L-4.8wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-51.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x72b4…7d67backed Magic72c6,390$4,601 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,600.830845.8%141 W · 167 L-12.8wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-9.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5d18…4972backed Wizards28c6,251$1,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,500.9616339.3%64 W · 99 L-10.2wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-15.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Wizards78c6,106$4,781 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,324.961,34129.9%401 W · 940 L-53.8wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-35.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcf6c…7e66backed Magic59c6,077$3,586 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,585.759646.1%275 W · 321 L-16.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x977a…f2cabacked Magic0c6,000$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151,2772.3%29 W · 1,248 L-11.7wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-84%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a0c…9db8backed Wizards29c6,000$1,710 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,289.9621538.1%82 W · 133 L+7.6wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+20.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xca21…b07cbacked Wizards73c5,505$4,018 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,486.7522458.9%132 W · 92 L+6.0wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+8.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ed6…eb26backed Wizards28c5,100$1,428 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,671.91837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick47cpaid-21.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Wizards29c5,050$1,464 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,585.471,78228%499 W · 1,283 L+11.5wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbde5…9c38backed Magic71c5,000$3,550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,5501,19746.7%559 W · 638 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6f4…0566backed Magic33c4,793$1,573 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,572.5785344%375 W · 478 L+1.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-15.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52b4…34a8backed Magic72c4,785$3,445 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,445.248347.2%228 W · 255 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc526…bf92backed Magic7c4,669$307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306.834429.5%13 W · 31 L+3.5wins+0.08per pick22cpaid+25%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2159…114fbacked Magic71c4,560$3,237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,237.481435.7%5 W · 9 L-3.3wins-0.24per pick59cpaid-43.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1df4…0540backed Magic71c4,538$3,222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,221.725657.1%32 W · 24 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+10.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd27c…c081backed Magic71c4,353$3,091 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,090.656357.1%36 W · 27 L-5.3wins-0.08per pick66cpaid-14.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x169c…ced1backed Magic72c4,300$3,096 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,0961346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+10.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f05…8937backed Wizards27c4,238$1,142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,096.1747028.1%132 W · 338 L+27.2wins+0.06per pick22cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x44a1…bd21backed Magic71c4,000$2,840 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,84026637.2%99 W · 167 L-10.5wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-25.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4fc1…ec92backed Magic72c4,000$2,880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,88075347.5%358 W · 395 L+10.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf3ae…7b92backed Wizards27c4,000$1,080 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,92018142%76 W · 105 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xefa5…3d34backed Magic6c3,865$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2407537.3%28 W · 47 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick34cpaid-5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7517…0353backed Magic55c3,714$2,029 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,028.7727865.8%183 W · 95 L+25.4wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+10.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd9a5…c602backed Magic73c3,618$2,641 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,641.1423630.1%71 W · 165 L-12.3wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-28.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Wizards59c3,468$2,032 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,435.931,40940.2%567 W · 842 L-40.5wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-23.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Magic21c3,446$728 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$727.941,22637.4%458 W · 768 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-21.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x817b…3c25backed Wizards27c3,400$914 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,486.161,04841.1%431 W · 617 L+23.6wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x05ca…679bbacked Magic30c3,367$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-46.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3736…b973backed Magic72c3,300$2,376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,376922.2%2 W · 7 L-2.8wins-0.31per pick53cpaid-58.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2ec0…f7aabacked Wizards28c3,223$902 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,320.6214254.9%78 W · 64 L+9.3wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+17.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Magic70c3,200$2,232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,2322,36148.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x62fb…4d60backed Wizards29c3,172$918 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,253.8335547.3%168 W · 187 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Magic71c3,074$2,183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,182.671,31650.5%664 W · 652 L+42.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6008…53a1backed Wizards39c3,047$1,202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,844.69966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+28.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x11ee…62a4backed Magic26c3,035$792 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$792.492222.7%5 W · 17 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick30cpaid-36.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x019d…2b01backed Magic27c3,000$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80029037.9%110 W · 180 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-4.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xc8ec…e8f1backed Wizards30c3,000$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,10024831.9%79 W · 169 L+7.3wins+0.03per pick29cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked Magic72c3,000$2,160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,159.9979549.7%395 W · 400 L-0.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x89f3…dfffbacked Magic23c2,923$663 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$663.1734227.2%93 W · 249 L-8.4wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-17.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7702…9791backed Magic73c2,877$2,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,10024151.9%125 W · 116 L-7.7wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Magic71c2,835$2,007 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,006.681,90854.5%1,040 W · 868 L+53.7wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7320…28b4backed Magic37c2,703$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00012657.1%72 W · 54 L+11.4wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+15.1%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x66c9…2e68backed Wizards76c2,634$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$633.946758.2%39 W · 28 L-4.6wins-0.07per pick65cpaid-11.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed Magic6c2,616$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.2183039.4%327 W · 503 L+6.3wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-20.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Wizards33c2,615$860 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,754.883,34243.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L+81.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7972…594fbacked Magic72c2,608$1,878 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,8784358.1%25 W · 18 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-11.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5463…3e46backed Magic72c2,600$1,872 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,8721250%6 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-19.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7737…e2eebacked Magic19c2,566$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5002152.4%11 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick52cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x74cd…2319backed Magic5c2,544$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1152165.6%12 W · 204 L-12.6wins-0.06per pick11cpaid-61%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9adf…55e8backed Wizards33c2,532$836 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,696.6923747.7%113 W · 124 L-0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.