NBA · resolved market
Magic vs. Wizards: O/U 235.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd832f1b5740c9548fb2ef912f5f35191b3f6f4d294a8c36dea41e3b579eac6a6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,898
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,986
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,898 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaea2…6a02backed Over | 49c | 5,467$2,679 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,679.05 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.25per pick | 48cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9315…a744backed Under | 53c | 5,000$2,650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,350 | 67 | 67.2%45 W · 22 L | +10.7wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…1a5dbacked Over | 47c | 5,000$2,350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,350 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -4.1wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…883dbacked Over | 49c | 4,056$1,988 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,987.63 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1912…686cbacked Over | 48c | 4,000$1,920 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,920 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc782…70eabacked Under | 52c | 4,000$2,080 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,920 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 51c | 3,920$2,016 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,904.43 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe405…bf91backed Under | 55c | 3,636$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,636.36 | 484 | 48.8%236 W · 248 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…9974backed Under | 53c | 2,500$1,320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,180.15 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 47c | 1,669$785 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$784.57 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Over | 47c | 1,089$516 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$515.94 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc617…a854backed Over | 47c | 1,064$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 426 | 48.1%205 W · 221 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 48c | 1,062$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$509.58 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c10…8977backed Under | 71c | 986.64$702 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.53 | 623 | 47.7%297 W · 326 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 51c | 802.13$409 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$393.01 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Over | 49c | 646.91$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.99 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf525…e0eebacked Under | 53c | 494.47$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.4 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeeeb…135abacked Over | 49c | 391.84$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5dc…ec43backed Under | 51c | 391.84$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192 | 690 | 49.4%341 W · 349 L | -30.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b46…121dbacked Under | 52c | 384.62$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.62 | 315 | 51.7%163 W · 152 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7289…8d16backed Under | 54c | 370.37$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.37 | 133 | 54.1%72 W · 61 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ae2…20a3backed Over | 53c | 317.34$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.19 | 139 | 51.1%71 W · 68 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked Under | 51c | 240$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.6 | 249 | 55.8%139 W · 110 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Over | 48c | 237.39$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.87 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b43…fae9backed Over | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 311 | 51.1%159 W · 152 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Under | 54c | 203.7$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.7 | 1,444 | 58.1%839 W · 605 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4daa…6920backed Under | 54c | 200$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe47b…1b4bbacked Over | 48c | 199.98$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.99 | 357 | 39.8%142 W · 215 L | -25.0wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 74c | 188$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.88 | 2,208 | 46.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L | +42.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Under | 54c | 187.02$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.03 | 1,157 | 47.9%554 W · 603 L | -19.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10f7…26f0backed Under | 54c | 183$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.18 | 74 | 51.4%38 W · 36 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed Under | 66c | 167.52$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 1,390 | 26%361 W · 1,029 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fdd…23d8backed Under | 54c | 161.22$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.18 | 104 | 54.8%57 W · 47 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Over | 49c | 135$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.15 | 1,715 | 44.5%764 W · 951 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x784b…e729backed Under | 52c | 123$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.04 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 52cpaid | +94.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e51…9531backed Under | 52c | 115.38$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.38 | 367 | 51.5%189 W · 178 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf36f…e5b8backed Under | 52c | 105.77$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.77 | 162 | 61.7%100 W · 62 L | +15.6wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Over | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 1,151 | 53.7%618 W · 533 L | -41.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce65…6759backed Under | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 134 | 41%55 W · 79 L | -16.1wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -30%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe88b…fa5abacked Over | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.93 | 432 | 46.1%199 W · 233 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbcf…20aebacked Under | 51c | 98.6$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.31 | 289 | 43.3%125 W · 164 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d14…1eb4backed Under | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 373 | 52%194 W · 179 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Over | 45c | 89.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.2 | 888 | 45.7%406 W · 482 L | -12.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 60c | 87$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.2 | 2,468 | 50.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 62c | 83.32$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.53 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 52c | 76.92$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.92 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7567…0923backed Under | 52c | 71$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.08 | 56 | 51.8%29 W · 27 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb781…0adcbacked Under | 58c | 64.89$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.29 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9de1…f272backed Over | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 479 | 48.6%233 W · 246 L | +14.4wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bbb…1594backed Under | 52c | 59$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.32 | 60 | 45%27 W · 33 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd637…be9abacked Under | 56c | 54.09$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.05 | 160 | 52.5%84 W · 76 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f2…9b10backed Under | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 79 | 53.2%42 W · 37 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4844…9c83backed Under | 51c | 47$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.03 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee60…6902backed Over | 50c | 44.09$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 376 | 65.4%246 W · 130 L | +62.0wins | +0.16per pick | 49cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2342…d7cebacked Over | 46c | 44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.24 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -3.2wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Over | 45c | 40.79$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.55 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f78…d7c1backed Over | 50c | 40.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb12…f057backed Under | 51c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 233 | 48.9%114 W · 119 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x117d…6542backed Under | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 564 | 54.3%306 W · 258 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd84f…0475backed Over | 46c | 37$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.02 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12f7…0899backed Under | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa60c…b395backed Over | 46c | 35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7422…e383backed Under | 52c | 34.62$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.62 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Over | 48c | 31.34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 938 | 49.7%466 W · 472 L | +36.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e8…3a5dbacked Under | 53c | 30.28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.28 | 548 | 54.2%297 W · 251 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x624d…50ddbacked Over | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38dc…4c5fbacked Over | 46c | 29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e57…41f0backed Over | 49c | 28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Over | 47c | 25.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77ec…4f9cbacked Over | 46c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31ce…88cdbacked Under | 50c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 245 | 52.7%129 W · 116 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cae…bf8abacked Under | 50c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 153 | 52.3%80 W · 73 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcf7…bcbebacked Under | 50c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 158 | 54.4%86 W · 72 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b82…2d2abacked Under | 50c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 159 | 53.5%85 W · 74 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa46d…59c4backed Under | 52c | 23.08$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.08 | 121 | 49.6%60 W · 61 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb9f…a82fbacked Over | 55c | 20.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Magic vs. Wizards: O/U 235.5this page
- 1H Spread: Magic (-3.5)Wizards won
- 1H Spread: Magic (-4.5)Wizards won
- Magic vs. WizardsWizards won
- Magic vs. Wizards: 1H MoneylineWizards won
- Magic vs. Wizards: O/U 233.5Under won
- Magic vs. Wizards: O/U 234.5Under won
- Spread: Magic (-6.5)Wizards won
- Spread: Magic (-7.5)Wizards won
- Spread: Magic (-8.5)Wizards won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.