NBA · resolved market
Magic vs. Wizards: O/U 234.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x458de230490c6df1e87cbc6523c249b86d7c178f88130bece08bb949b044ebd2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $45,272
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,544
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,272 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x56e1…88d4backed Over | 50c | 5,284$2,642 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,642 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 50c | 5,169$2,585 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,584.88 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Over | 50c | 3,518$1,759 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,759 | 1,910 | 54.3%1,038 W · 872 L | +25.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 52c | 2,948$1,542 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,541.75 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Under | 13c | 2,887$364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,522.57 | 830 | 39.4%327 W · 503 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 48c | 2,733$1,312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,421.16 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaea2…6a02backed Over | 52c | 2,346$1,220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,220 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.25per pick | 48cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e2…4e99backed Under | 52c | 1,923$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$923.08 | 164 | 42.1%69 W · 95 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Over | 9c | 1,906$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.57 | 1,055 | 49.9%526 W · 529 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47a6…69e0backed Over | 51c | 1,765$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 387 | 50.4%195 W · 192 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Over | 49c | 1,754$852 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$851.75 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 46c | 1,753$813 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$939.93 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…883dbacked Over | 52c | 1,654$860 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$860 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 39c | 1,525$588 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$937.04 | 2,630 | 36.7%966 W · 1,664 L | -119.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Under | 52c | 1,000$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480 | 617 | 40.7%251 W · 366 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed2c…9597backed Under | 48c | 1,000$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520 | 379 | 44.3%168 W · 211 L | -10.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under | 47c | 978.08$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$518.38 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06e6…87e6backed Under | 50c | 876$438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$438 | 446 | 48%214 W · 232 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec6c…23c7backed Over | 10c | 684.51$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.49 | 248 | 46.8%116 W · 132 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Under | 52c | 651.1$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.53 | 1,157 | 47.9%554 W · 603 L | -19.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 50c | 629.04$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.52 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b56…d1e1backed Over | 77c | 533.47$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410.43 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x773c…cf18backed Under | 49c | 510.2$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.2 | 184 | 48.9%90 W · 94 L | -13.3wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc935…2579backed Under | 77c | 510$394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.8 | 68 | 72.1%49 W · 19 L | +5.1wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc0…fe28backed Over | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 46 | 2.2%1 W · 45 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Under | 43c | 496.16$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.06 | 637 | 45.8%292 W · 345 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83c8…26f0backed Over | 7c | 300$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 95 | 15.8%15 W · 80 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7602…2775backed Over | 33c | 293.97$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.01 | 506 | 48%243 W · 263 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe02f…669fbacked Over | 6c | 250$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 132 | 28.8%38 W · 94 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 47c | 212.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.72 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42f3…1e83backed Under | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 117 | 13.7%16 W · 101 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52bb…2b47backed Under | 51c | 137$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.13 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e46…0742backed Under | 52c | 134.62$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.62 | 239 | 48.5%116 W · 123 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4130…a35bbacked Under | 52c | 99$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.52 | 81 | 51.9%42 W · 39 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Over | 50c | 90$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.39 | 888 | 45.7%406 W · 482 L | -12.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 49c | 81.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.63 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeeeb…135abacked Over | 51c | 76.47$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…3534backed Under | 48c | 72.92$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.92 | 377 | 55.7%210 W · 167 L | +11.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf79a…56c2backed Under | 51c | 72.02$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.29 | 232 | 50.4%117 W · 115 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e52…ee4ebacked Over | 49c | 71$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Under | 32c | 63.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.33 | 306 | 16.7%51 W · 255 L | -36.5wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Over | 52c | 54.3$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.23 | 851 | 47.5%404 W · 447 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 39c | 47$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.82 | 2,468 | 50.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a88…2bffbacked Under | 24c | 46.52$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.34 | 379 | 49.3%187 W · 192 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe09e…5047backed Over | 34c | 45.92$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.63 | 82 | 43.9%36 W · 46 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97a9…728ebacked Under | 50c | 45$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x727d…1589backed Over | 78c | 42.21$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.89 | 192 | 32.8%63 W · 129 L | -18.1wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf8…2540backed Over | 74c | 40.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Over | 49c | 36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5df7…a8edbacked Over | 48c | 32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -3.6wins | -0.14per pick | 50cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb5a9…f72ebacked Over | 48c | 29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeee1…5a04backed Under | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb385…c1a4backed Over | 48c | 27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -3.6wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb870…5a8abacked Under | 50c | 26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 918 | 46.2%424 W · 494 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf33a…58febacked Under | 75c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06f4…758dbacked Over | 51c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 48c | 22.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d9b…c789backed Under | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Magic vs. Wizards: O/U 234.5this page
- 1H Spread: Magic (-3.5)Wizards won
- 1H Spread: Magic (-4.5)Wizards won
- Magic vs. WizardsWizards won
- Magic vs. Wizards: 1H MoneylineWizards won
- Magic vs. Wizards: O/U 233.5Under won
- Magic vs. Wizards: O/U 235.5Under won
- Spread: Magic (-6.5)Wizards won
- Spread: Magic (-7.5)Wizards won
- Spread: Magic (-8.5)Wizards won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.