TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Magic (-8.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Wizardsof Magic, Wizards
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$421,277
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$425,287

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $421,277 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 88 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4924…3782backed Magic48c387,203$185,609 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185,609.387451.5%450 W · 424 L+15.8wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a72…33eebacked Wizards52c250,000$130,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120,00026253.8%141 W · 121 L+10.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Wizards52c101,143$52,594 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48,548.721,04549%512 W · 533 L+21.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed Wizards52c12,000$6,240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,7601,04651.1%534 W · 512 L-0.7wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Wizards53c10,204$5,412 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,791.793,59150.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L+21.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Wizards53c8,500$4,505 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,9954,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ac4…3081backed Wizards53c6,000$3,180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,8206454.7%35 W · 29 L+4.5wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+11.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Wizards53c5,500$2,915 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,5852,15351.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L+76.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Magic37c3,923$1,442 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,442.298,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d18…4972backed Wizards55c3,000$1,650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,349.9916339.3%64 W · 99 L-10.2wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-15.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Wizards65c2,973$1,933 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,039.873,99548.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L+101.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x74c2…5260backed Magic45c2,970$1,337 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,336.673850%19 W · 19 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Wizards53c2,900$1,542 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,358.042,79650.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L+27.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Wizards53c2,637$1,404 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,233.819,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x253d…aa62backed Magic46c1,592$732 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$732.3258347%274 W · 309 L-12.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x936f…d171backed Wizards53c1,500$795 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70511753%62 W · 55 L+6.4wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+8.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1748…a816backed Magic47c1,443$678 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67817344.5%77 W · 96 L-6.3wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-7.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd04d…bfc2backed Magic47c1,277$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$600.182,43549.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L+30.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd51b…9606backed Wizards53c943.4$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$443.410541%43 W · 62 L-11.1wins-0.11per pick52cpaid-23.8%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0x42b7…77dcbacked Magic48c937.5$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45010138.6%39 W · 62 L-6.6wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-16.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe550…2c8bbacked Magic46c932.61$429 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42935749.6%177 W · 180 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x986c…dbc6backed Wizards55c909.09$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$409.0947651.7%246 W · 230 L-6.4wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6fb6…fa2cbacked Wizards55c909.09$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$409.0921852.8%115 W · 103 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed Wizards55c700$384 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3161,19747.5%569 W · 628 L-32.0wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-5.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Wizards53c519.55$275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$244.192,51249.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L+6.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa61f…7993backed Wizards55c339.98$187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.3961747.8%295 W · 322 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Wizards54c300$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1382,36148.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ff0…91fcbacked Wizards53c254.72$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.724153.7%22 W · 19 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x04b4…8d0bbacked Wizards54c226.03$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.7357250%286 W · 286 L-0.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x498e…f5c5backed Magic48c208.47$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc880…a622backed Wizards54c191$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.867441.9%31 W · 43 L-4.5wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-11.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf13b…9ef9backed Wizards54c185.19$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.1921753%115 W · 102 L+4.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xba0d…9a6ebacked Wizards57c159.36$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.5214742.2%62 W · 85 L-8.9wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-9.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb870…5a8abacked Wizards65c146.15$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.1591846.2%424 W · 494 L+1.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Wizards53c121$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.871,66752.7%878 W · 789 L+45.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Wizards56c114.99$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.61,29448.1%623 W · 671 L+0.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa5f…3de3backed Wizards54c108$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.687247.2%34 W · 38 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-5.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe00f…c254backed Wizards54c103.28$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.5119147.1%90 W · 101 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2bd5…26ccbacked Wizards54c100$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4651651%263 W · 253 L+0.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7705…a442backed Magic47c100$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4711840.7%48 W · 70 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-1.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xecc2…6d7dbacked Wizards53c93.86$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.11977.8%7 W · 2 L+2.3wins+0.26per pick52cpaid+49.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1b46…944cbacked Wizards54c92.59$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.5917155.6%95 W · 76 L+6.7wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+7.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa521…4599backed Wizards54c90$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.47557.3%43 W · 32 L+6.7wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+19.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x682f…3265backed Wizards56c89.29$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.291,38954.9%762 W · 627 L+16.7wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x239b…bd0bbacked Magic47c85.11$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402825%7 W · 21 L-6.4wins-0.23per pick48cpaid-40.4%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0xd851…9305backed Wizards54c84$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.644645.7%21 W · 25 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-3.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Wizards54c74.07$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.072,60250.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L-20.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x865a…901bbacked Wizards54c74.07$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.0710060%60 W · 40 L+7.1wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf0fd…5903backed Wizards55c72.73$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.7310646.2%49 W · 57 L-12.5wins-0.12per pick58cpaid-16.7%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x6c82…6150backed Wizards53c70$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.963555.6%353 W · 282 L+9.5wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xce3e…2f24backed Wizards61c65.57$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.5725056.8%142 W · 108 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2722…697abacked Wizards58c51.61$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.614465.9%29 W · 15 L+4.9wins+0.11per pick55cpaid+24.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe11a…d47ebacked Magic46c49$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.544242.9%18 W · 24 L-3.4wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-16.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe16c…9d62backed Wizards67c48.96$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.963151.6%16 W · 15 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-4.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x785f…e3d9backed Wizards66c48.22$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.421,02947.7%491 W · 538 L-13.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e47…a7abbacked Wizards54c48.15$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.1549852.4%261 W · 237 L-0.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe8bd…8deabacked Magic46c48$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.083438.2%13 W · 21 L-4.6wins-0.13per pick52cpaid-28.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf26c…3443backed Magic46c44$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.242540%10 W · 15 L-2.9wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-24.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd67a…304cbacked Magic46c43$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.783046.7%14 W · 16 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-8.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6061…1ff7backed Magic46c42$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.322958.6%17 W · 12 L+2.1wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+14%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaf47…4d00backed Wizards55c40$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182846.4%13 W · 15 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-12.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6e8d…3a3dbacked Wizards54c37.04$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.0434849.7%173 W · 175 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xdb03…d693backed Wizards54c37.04$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.043943.6%17 W · 22 L-3.2wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-6.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa1c3…be5abacked Wizards55c36.36$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.362958.6%17 W · 12 L+1.9wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+13.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x848f…612fbacked Wizards57c35.09$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.097861.5%48 W · 30 L-2.6wins-0.03per pick65cpaid-4.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc0af…5490backed Wizards56c35$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.428856.9%164 W · 124 L-1.4wins0.00per pick57cpaid+1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xb100…dce6backed Wizards56c34$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.963056.7%17 W · 13 L+2.1wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+16.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x25c3…eb62backed Magic46c34$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.643644.4%16 W · 20 L-2.4wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-13.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7602…2775backed Magic43c32.24$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.8650648%243 W · 263 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a9c…b84dbacked Magic47c31.91$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.22per pick55cpaid-50.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Wizards55c30$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.514953%79 W · 70 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c94…a43bbacked Magic47c29.85$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.0351146.6%238 W · 273 L-13.7wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x330e…c22abacked Wizards54c27.78$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.782548%12 W · 13 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid+10.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd22f…d0eebacked Wizards55c27.27$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.2740853.7%219 W · 189 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a00…0c93backed Magic44c27.27$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124351.2%22 W · 21 L+0.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd236…a65ebacked Magic45c26.25$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.8152246.6%243 W · 279 L-7.9wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Wizards53c25$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.753,12044.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L-7.6wins0.00per pick45cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x31ce…88cdbacked Wizards55c24$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.824552.7%129 W · 116 L+5.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7cae…bf8abacked Wizards55c24$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.815352.3%80 W · 73 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdcf7…bcbebacked Wizards55c24$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.815854.4%86 W · 72 L+4.3wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+7.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b82…2d2abacked Wizards55c24$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.815953.5%85 W · 74 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6162…e856backed Magic46c23$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.583562.9%22 W · 13 L+3.4wins+0.10per pick53cpaid+19.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3da4…28d7backed Wizards53c22.13$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.416657.2%95 W · 71 L+10.2wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+13%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd74d…55b8backed Wizards54c22$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.123545.7%16 W · 19 L-2.2wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-13.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbda3…ef65backed Wizards53c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.437253.5%199 W · 173 L+9.5wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4610…0eb3backed Wizards54c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.25123.5%12 W · 39 L-2.5wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-31.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x33f3…d80abacked Wizards53c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.44228.6%12 W · 30 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick24cpaid-28.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9569…27fdbacked Wizards64c18.18$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.5413959.7%83 W · 56 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.