NBA · resolved market
Magic vs. Wizards: O/U 233.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x71138c78cd61161ccb9afaceec528eede32afbf9a3786961c26fb15f51780016
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,158
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,345
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,158 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcc96…8a0bbacked Over | 52c | 4,200$2,184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,184 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2e…2ad2backed Under | 48c | 4,200$2,016 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,184 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +3.1wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd856…f1f6backed Over | 52c | 4,200$2,184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,184 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0e…74c2backed Under | 48c | 4,200$2,016 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,184 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8640…93a3backed Under | 48c | 4,100$1,968 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,132 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.7wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -33%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe971…350cbacked Over | 52c | 4,100$2,132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,132 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cce…5c2fbacked Over | 52c | 4,018$2,089 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,089 | 162 | 54.3%88 W · 74 L | +7.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0394…20e9backed Over | 52c | 4,000$2,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,080 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -3.7wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7432…d7d5backed Under | 48c | 4,000$1,920 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,080 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc617…a854backed Over | 52c | 3,846$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 426 | 48.1%205 W · 221 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 48c | 3,826$1,828 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,998.66 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 46c | 2,587$1,190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,396.73 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75e1…3ff3backed Over | 52c | 2,056$1,069 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,069.12 | 88 | 53.4%47 W · 41 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 48c | 1,923$923 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…f76ebacked Over | 54c | 1,852$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 259 | 45.6%118 W · 141 L | -11.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2579…9d48backed Over | 53c | 1,262$665 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$665 | 193 | 59.6%115 W · 78 L | +14.1wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Under | 48c | 879.59$422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$457.42 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 61c | 829.44$509 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.71 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe09…7acebacked Over | 52c | 800$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416 | 122 | 57.4%70 W · 52 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b4…e861backed Over | 57c | 438.72$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.62 | 70 | 47.1%33 W · 37 L | -5.9wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Under | 47c | 400$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212 | 1,197 | 47.5%569 W · 628 L | -32.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 43c | 328.61$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.31 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa89e…4ab4backed Over | 53c | 310$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.3 | 157 | 59.9%94 W · 63 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa42a…d91fbacked Over | 52c | 300$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 623 | 47.5%296 W · 327 L | -17.3wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e29…9e66backed Over | 54c | 288$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.52 | 502 | 41.2%207 W · 295 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 48c | 207.8$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.38 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92cf…8b35backed Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 1,110 | 52%577 W · 533 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a1c…aee9backed Over | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fea…6016backed Under | 57c | 179.99$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +71.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 43c | 148.48$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.85 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb870…5a8abacked Under | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 918 | 46.2%424 W · 494 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd80f…92febacked Under | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 555 | 33.5%186 W · 369 L | -15.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd25…8098backed Over | 52c | 98$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe05…b5a5backed Over | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 332 | 46.1%153 W · 179 L | -12.1wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x911d…2438backed Over | 54c | 86.09$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.5 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 47c | 85.11$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.11 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf69…4fa2backed Over | 53c | 75$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.75 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Over | 54c | 74.07$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1,573 | 53.4%840 W · 733 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f91…20ccbacked Over | 52c | 74$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.48 | 92 | 58.7%54 W · 38 L | +9.0wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Under | 49c | 70.22$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.81 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7563…1fb3backed Over | 53c | 69$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.57 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Under | 46c | 64.29$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.4 | 938 | 49.7%466 W · 472 L | +36.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Over | 51c | 59.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.89 | 888 | 45.7%406 W · 482 L | -12.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 49c | 59.36$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.27 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaa6…db0abacked Under | 49c | 51$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.01 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Over | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 230 | 47.4%109 W · 121 L | +19.2wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd851…9305backed Over | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86a9…f2d7backed Under | 47c | 47$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.91 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44d4…1970backed Over | 53c | 47$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.91 | 167 | 52.1%87 W · 80 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0848…8059backed Over | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -27%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75c0…dfd2backed Over | 51c | 41.18$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb12…f057backed Under | 46c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 233 | 48.9%114 W · 119 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd18b…876dbacked Over | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 113 | 56.6%64 W · 49 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45d2…22fbbacked Over | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 113 | 48.7%55 W · 58 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Under | 48c | 36.04$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.62 | 1,029 | 47.7%491 W · 538 L | -13.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5c…1f57backed Under | 47c | 29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.37 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Over | 51c | 28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 712 | 45.8%326 W · 386 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd289…98b5backed Under | 48c | 26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.52 | 31 | 71%22 W · 9 L | +6.0wins | +0.19per pick | 52cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfadc…a4e8backed Under | 47c | 26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.78 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -3.0wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -25%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f96…92e0backed Under | 48c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bc1…116cbacked Under | 45c | 23.22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.68 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9840…cb31backed Under | 48c | 23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.96 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Under | 48c | 22.96$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.87 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x194f…81b6backed Under | 47c | 22$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.66 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97b8…0f5dbacked Under | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 139 | 53.2%74 W · 65 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Magic vs. Wizards: O/U 233.5this page
- 1H Spread: Magic (-3.5)Wizards won
- 1H Spread: Magic (-4.5)Wizards won
- Magic vs. WizardsWizards won
- Magic vs. Wizards: 1H MoneylineWizards won
- Magic vs. Wizards: O/U 234.5Under won
- Magic vs. Wizards: O/U 235.5Under won
- Spread: Magic (-6.5)Wizards won
- Spread: Magic (-7.5)Wizards won
- Spread: Magic (-8.5)Wizards won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.