TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Magic (-7.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Wizardsof Magic, Wizards
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,180,282
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,183,222

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,180,282 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 179 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4924…3782backed Magic51c320,865$163,641 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163,640.9787451.5%450 W · 424 L+15.8wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1ff2…dbbdbacked Magic52c289,218$149,876 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149,876.183534.3%12 W · 23 L-6.0wins-0.17per pick51cpaid-39.7%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x6a72…33eebacked Wizards48c237,342$113,924 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123,417.6826253.8%141 W · 121 L+10.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x006c…16eabacked Wizards51c131,329$66,376 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64,953.314452.3%23 W · 21 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Wizards49c108,989$53,405 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55,584.721,04549%512 W · 533 L+21.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Magic50c100,801$50,322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50,321.982,29851.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L+65.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc660…bd28backed Wizards49c82,493$40,422 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42,071.4259347%279 W · 314 L-7.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed Wizards49c80,000$39,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40,799.981,04651.1%534 W · 512 L-0.7wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x68dd…f0b2backed Wizards50c70,000$34,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35,30051350.1%257 W · 256 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb889…a430backed Wizards49c63,392$31,062 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32,329.789263%58 W · 34 L+9.8wins+0.11per pick52cpaid+21.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7a88…41ccbacked Wizards49c55,555$27,222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28,333.054734%16 W · 31 L-6.9wins-0.15per pick49cpaid-30.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xc257…358ebacked Wizards50c51,331$25,666 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25,665.540446.8%189 W · 215 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c16…09cbbacked Magic50c50,000$25,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,00013248.5%64 W · 68 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid+3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb784…61d0backed Wizards49c40,000$19,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,399.9629351.5%151 W · 142 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Wizards49c38,426$18,913 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,513.211,02450.8%520 W · 504 L+18.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcc63…f1c7backed Magic51c34,979$17,837 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,837.2950653.2%269 W · 237 L+8.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x631b…3c42backed Magic51c19,608$10,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,00010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8cbb…acb2backed Magic51c18,342$9,314 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,314.1389050.4%449 W · 441 L+4.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Wizards49c16,751$8,290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,461.023,59150.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L+21.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1bc0…4429backed Wizards50c14,000$7,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,00048343.7%211 W · 272 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Wizards49c12,500$6,125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,3752,15351.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L+76.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5d18…4972backed Wizards50c11,500$5,790 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,709.9616339.3%64 W · 99 L-10.2wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-15.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xead0…f3babacked Wizards49c10,000$4,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,1001,12448.6%546 W · 578 L+13.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7066…280abacked Wizards52c9,900$5,148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,752520%1 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.27per pick47cpaid-61.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc79d…ca80backed Magic48c9,895$4,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,749.6560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+18.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x74c2…5260backed Magic50c8,015$4,007 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,007.473850%19 W · 19 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Magic50c8,000$4,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,0001,82052.1%948 W · 872 L+48.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Magic51c7,995$4,077 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,077.452,51249.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L+6.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaea2…6a02backed Magic49c7,459$3,655 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,654.75922.2%2 W · 7 L-2.3wins-0.25per pick48cpaid-53.7%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x92d8…0924backed Magic50c6,574$3,287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,286.8324045.4%109 W · 131 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ade…f5b0backed Magic50c6,000$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,0001,55652.8%822 W · 734 L+40.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+10.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb077…8fe8backed Magic50c4,399$2,198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,198.1215549.7%77 W · 78 L-6.6wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Wizards50c4,320$2,156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,163.3869149.1%339 W · 352 L-8.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf51…4a30backed Magic49c4,109$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00076746.4%356 W · 411 L-16.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Wizards53c3,319$1,759 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,559.871,91054.3%1,038 W · 872 L+25.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x477a…583ebacked Magic49c2,984$1,462 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,462.25944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-10.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x06ab…d376backed Wizards51c2,984$1,522 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,462.16560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+17.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x19ff…d0d0backed Magic51c2,942$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5008246.3%38 W · 44 L+6.1wins+0.07per pick39cpaid+24%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Magic48c2,849$1,368 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,367.526,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb1fe…9974backed Magic51c2,500$1,275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2754245.2%19 W · 23 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-9.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x936f…d171backed Wizards49c2,500$1,225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,27511753%62 W · 55 L+6.4wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+8.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd4da…3175backed Magic50c2,103$1,052 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,051.6871547.7%341 W · 374 L-26.9wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-6.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdebb…eedbbacked Magic48c2,048$983 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$983.0113638.2%52 W · 84 L-8.5wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-18.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbe5f…d795backed Wizards49c2,000$980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,019.9927051.5%139 W · 131 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4667…cab0backed Magic51c1,961$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00013355.6%74 W · 59 L+8.7wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+15.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd1e0…8913backed Wizards50c1,960$980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9805971.2%42 W · 17 L+5.9wins+0.10per pick61cpaid+17%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Wizards49c1,937$949 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$987.871,66752.7%878 W · 789 L+45.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3da4…28d7backed Magic48c1,745$838 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$837.5916657.2%95 W · 71 L+10.2wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+13%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xee17…b46ebacked Magic49c1,663$815 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$815.14257.1%24 W · 18 L+2.9wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+20.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x081e…f76ebacked Magic50c1,500$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75025945.6%118 W · 141 L-11.5wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-9.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Wizards49c1,458$715 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$743.74,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Magic48c1,458$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$699.842,75350.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L+47.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Magic49c1,326$654 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$653.629,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Wizards49c1,317$650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$667.722,79650.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L+27.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f6a…04ebbacked Wizards52c1,154$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$553.8535447.7%169 W · 185 L-10.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4818…fde0backed Wizards50c1,000$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50051753.8%278 W · 239 L+11.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf332…3c89backed Wizards51c1,000$510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49065649.2%323 W · 333 L+9.5wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x06fd…c0bebacked Wizards50c1,000$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$500616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.28per pick45cpaid-66.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf1ef…8cd6backed Wizards50c818.34$409 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$409.1743348.5%210 W · 223 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7104…afefbacked Wizards50c814.66$407 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$407.333073.3%22 W · 8 L+6.4wins+0.21per pick52cpaid+47.7%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x3b46…121dbacked Magic50c792.16$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40031551.7%163 W · 152 L-1.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid+4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae53…d80bbacked Magic34c735.28$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.9940952.1%213 W · 196 L+16.3wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x28ad…0614backed Magic2c726.98$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.0816036.3%58 W · 102 L-6.0wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-10%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x78a2…d0a5backed Wizards50c713.7$357 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$356.8518343.7%80 W · 103 L-0.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid+1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd53e…e70cbacked Wizards50c689.5$345 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$344.757045.7%32 W · 38 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-11.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcea6…67adbacked Wizards50c600$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30028448.2%137 W · 147 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6036…d2ccbacked Magic50c600$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30040648%195 W · 211 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd092…342abacked Wizards50c598.27$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$298.2746258.2%269 W · 193 L-0.6wins0.00per pick58cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f99…c209backed Wizards52c480.77$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$230.7713155%72 W · 59 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ff0…91fcbacked Wizards51c470.59$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$230.594153.7%22 W · 19 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Wizards60c448.6$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.923,99548.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L+101.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2d84…aa68backed Wizards49c356.79$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.9611060%66 W · 44 L+9.5wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+15.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x43d7…dca3backed Magic51c343.14$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17515052.7%79 W · 71 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8ff8…aa3abacked Magic50c333$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.54553.3%24 W · 21 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Wizards57c319.24$182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.88,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x85c2…9730backed Wizards50c308$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15468542.6%292 W · 393 L-6.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa42a…d91fbacked Magic48c304.17$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14662347.5%296 W · 327 L-17.3wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Wizards50c300.31$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.073,34243.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L+81.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa35b…0eccbacked Wizards51c294.12$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.1224556.3%138 W · 107 L+10.5wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaf45…bbdbbacked Magic51c227.44$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.620%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x34fa…f491backed Wizards49c200$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10295548.5%463 W · 492 L-3.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf13b…9ef9backed Wizards50c200$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10021753%115 W · 102 L+4.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6eb4…96b0backed Wizards50c200$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1003262.5%20 W · 12 L+5.2wins+0.16per pick46cpaid+40.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x243c…9ae0backed Magic39c194.66$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.9438347%180 W · 203 L-8.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-2.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8021…0da8backed Magic51c193.14$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.51030%3 W · 7 L-1.8wins-0.18per pick48cpaid-44.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x498e…f5c5backed Magic52c192.31$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1787…c311backed Magic48c179.18$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.341,44458.1%839 W · 605 L+13.5wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x49c4…3f14backed Magic39c163.45$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.598347%39 W · 44 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-0.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf102…1348backed Wizards50c160$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8052240%209 W · 313 L-8.4wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Wizards50c150$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.752,65749.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L+42.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9569…27fdbacked Wizards68c147.06$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.0613959.7%83 W · 56 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf190…255fbacked Wizards53c132$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.04475%3 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.18per pick57cpaid+46.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb870…5a8abacked Wizards61c131.14$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.1491846.2%424 W · 494 L+1.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f2f…b226backed Magic50c129.03$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.524944.9%22 W · 27 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-6.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1ec4…defabacked Magic51c127.45$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6582440.4%333 W · 491 L+6.1wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f17…2332backed Wizards50c120$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6012155.4%67 W · 54 L+4.6wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+8.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe00f…c254backed Wizards50c111.6$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.2619147.1%90 W · 101 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a87…fb21backed Magic48c101.88$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4962450%312 W · 312 L-2.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1b46…944cbacked Wizards50c100$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5017155.6%95 W · 76 L+6.7wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+7.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5d78…7b8dbacked Wizards62c100$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.57754.5%42 W · 35 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-9.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.