Bundesliga · resolved market
Will FC St. Pauli 1910 win on 2026-01-17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4c479c3f859b991e93f55fe8fcf857f5756605204d120e8bfdc97901364ed4bf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $109,759
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $107,721
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $109,759 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Yes | 8c | 19,943$1,654 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,653.74 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa051…54ebbacked Yes | 9c | 9,000$810 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$809.99 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -3.0wins | -0.19per pick | 37cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa196…5b78backed Yes | 8c | 7,967$608 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$608.01 | 98 | 31.6%31 W · 67 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -26%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5543…e1f5backed Yes | 8c | 3,000$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | -6.0wins | -0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x585c…f0a7backed Yes | 8c | 3,000$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 59 | 23.7%14 W · 45 L | -6.1wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4b62…2e59backed Yes | 8c | 2,000$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44c5…8d45backed Yes | 12c | 1,721$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.21 | 160 | 45%72 W · 88 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Yes | 8c | 1,500$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 277 | 26.4%73 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6ac…b899backed Yes | 1c | 1,300$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4ec…351fbacked Yes | 9c | 1,111$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 20cpaid | -80.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7fc…1511backed Yes | 2c | 1,056$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb763…247dbacked Yes | 8c | 1,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40b9…b002backed Yes | 8c | 999.99$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -4.0wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9e49…63f2backed Yes | 9c | 800$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 150 | 24%36 W · 114 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x814c…7ffabacked Yes | 9c | 599.95$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 194 | 46.4%90 W · 104 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0b…43cbbacked Yes | 9c | 595.17$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.46 | 228 | 29.4%67 W · 161 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb023…f142backed Yes | 8c | 500$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e3babacked Yes | 3c | 500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +3.0wins | +0.16per pick | 21cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb8…753bbacked Yes | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd96…4f7dbacked Yes | 8c | 450$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 4c | 358.07$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 511 | 36.8%188 W · 323 L | -28.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Yes | 8c | 345$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 536 | 45.9%246 W · 290 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef1…d333backed Yes | 3c | 337.09$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 9c | 300$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 8cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 9c | 300$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac3…c010backed Yes | 4c | 285.51$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 10c | 236.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 151 | 34.4%52 W · 99 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x466f…bb3bbacked Yes | 9c | 219.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4706…286ebacked Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 160 | 45%72 W · 88 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 8cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfed7…e405backed Yes | 10c | 187$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 95 | 49.5%47 W · 48 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f02…12f5backed Yes | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Yes | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 97 | 21.6%21 W · 76 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Yes | 9c | 143.32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 147 | 56.5%83 W · 64 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e2c…6aaebacked Yes | 10c | 142.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -27%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bef…f80abacked Yes | 10c | 125$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x286e…7d04backed Yes | 10c | 110$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3397…9ec1backed Yes | 11c | 109.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.29per pick | 33cpaid | +70.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xec53…d7e2backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC St. Pauli 1910 win on 2026-01-17?this page
- Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. FC St. Pauli 1910 end in a draw?No won
- Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-01-17?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.