Bundesliga · resolved market
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. FC St. Pauli 1910 end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x892ea663a7d491c6afe9a975d5764b164ecd8a5b2905607633e3f954611555ee
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $91,735
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $94,123
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $91,735 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe542…0a37backed No | 0c | 19,438$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,368.68 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +5.1wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +815.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 19c | 2,738$528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$527.68 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 18c | 1,928$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.26 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe648…b79abacked Yes | 18c | 1,572$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Yes | 13c | 1,249$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.67 | 45 | 26.7%12 W · 33 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9671…3a70backed Yes | 3c | 1,110$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.75 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Yes | 18c | 835$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.3 | 172 | 51.7%89 W · 83 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5773…ac11backed Yes | 18c | 800$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 311 | 45%140 W · 171 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 8c | 798$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.04 | 491 | 43.2%212 W · 279 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02ee…6605backed Yes | 67c | 747.38$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 64c | 722.4$464 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.89 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x727d…1589backed Yes | 4c | 635.22$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.85 | 72 | 30.6%22 W · 50 L | -4.6wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x79fd…78cebacked Yes | 52c | 544.06$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.35 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x611a…e63ebacked Yes | 4c | 500$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 34 | 5.9%2 W · 32 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe87…035dbacked No | 80c | 486.01$389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7fc…1511backed Yes | 5c | 408.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b3c…0de9backed Yes | 59c | 400$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.9wins | -0.18per pick | 56cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked No | 75c | 382.51$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.62 | 238 | 42.9%102 W · 136 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf509…67b9backed No | 80c | 300$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6b…075fbacked No | 70c | 300$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 99 | 51.5%51 W · 48 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0aa3…f3c8backed Yes | 18c | 244.44$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b67…b5d8backed No | 5c | 210$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.95per pick | 5cpaid | +1,958.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c70…b25ebacked Yes | 61c | 200.61$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.55 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf5fe…b52dbacked Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a09…3c83backed Yes | 62c | 194.49$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfed7…e405backed Yes | 18c | 188.21$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.88 | 95 | 49.5%47 W · 48 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9846…78afbacked Yes | 14c | 179.29$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a9…d58bbacked Yes | 23c | 169.57$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…e88ebacked Yes | 18c | 168.12$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.24 | 343 | 42%144 W · 199 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83d0…c927backed Yes | 13c | 155.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -6.5wins | -0.29per pick | 48cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 9c | 151.46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x873e…0081backed Yes | 58c | 148.62$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x710c…ee60backed Yes | 73c | 137.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e2c…6aaebacked Yes | 18c | 130.33$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.46 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -27%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Yes | 13c | 124.39$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.69 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb227…7553backed Yes | 13c | 117.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +2.8wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e3babacked Yes | 13c | 115.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +3.0wins | +0.16per pick | 21cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7d2a…3daebacked Yes | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7157…7ba4backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +3.8wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +54.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc490…6507backed Yes | 62c | 99$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.38 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb90…8dd8backed No | 60c | 95$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.74 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 27cpaid | -76.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc2b…b582backed Yes | 73c | 78.29$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ccd…1ec9backed Yes | 69c | 68.83$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.49 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc2d9…f193backed Yes | 59c | 68.29$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.22 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +4.1wins | +0.16per pick | 24cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x859d…3cecbacked Yes | 17c | 60.43$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e66…01cbbacked Yes | 22c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +48.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 57c | 59.87$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.08 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed No | 39c | 35.7$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.69 | 119 | 31.1%37 W · 82 L | -9.8wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf232…4fc6backed No | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x76b3…04e1backed Yes | 80c | 29.65$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4157…4cbfbacked Yes | 74c | 27.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8432…d2c4backed Yes | 55c | 21.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb03…5ae4backed Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7876…c421backed Yes | 77c | 16.46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. FC St. Pauli 1910 end in a draw?this page
- Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-01-17?Yes won
- Will FC St. Pauli 1910 win on 2026-01-17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.