TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Lions vs. 49ers

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Lionsof Lions, 49ers
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$4,036,535
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$4,361,445

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,036,535 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,198 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb35b…fc08backed 49ers21c541,379$112,156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112,156.4317823%41 W · 137 L-5.1wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-48.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe6a2…6af8backed Lions65c479,000$312,232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166,767.7312570.4%88 W · 37 L+12.8wins+0.10per pick60cpaid+15.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x1638…339bbacked 49ers33c347,388$116,346 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116,346.497041.4%29 W · 41 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-10.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2fe6…ab9dbacked 49ers21c317,294$68,174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68,174.1520634.5%71 W · 135 L-0.2wins0.00per pick35cpaid-24.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad3e…4422backed Lions62c304,655$187,626 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117,028.463650%18 W · 18 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-9.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x575d…0cedbacked Lions67c230,996$155,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75,995.661782.4%14 W · 3 L+2.4wins+0.14per pick68cpaid+20.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4cc3…7552backed 49ers34c203,480$69,946 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69,946.1125137.5%94 W · 157 L-18.6wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-22.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xc2e6…cc3abacked Lions66c155,616$102,150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53,466.291070%7 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.16per pick54cpaid+8.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1484…cafebacked 49ers42c110,638$46,578 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46,577.714755.3%26 W · 21 L+5.0wins+0.11per pick45cpaid+4.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x649f…993ebacked 49ers51c94,359$47,660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47,660.014746.8%22 W · 25 L+2.2wins+0.05per pick42cpaid-6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8e80…59e8backed 49ers33c83,177$27,344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27,343.752937.9%11 W · 18 L-2.7wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-29.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2317…c891backed Lions67c75,346$50,597 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24,749.145650%28 W · 28 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-12.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb79…c2c6backed 49ers34c59,577$20,313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,313.49645.8%44 W · 52 L+3.6wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf519…906bbacked 49ers34c41,426$14,137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,137.27042.9%30 W · 40 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick38cpaid-2.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfbf3…7094backed Lions66c38,200$25,130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,069.991145.5%5 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.11per pick56cpaid-36.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2b41…e0d3backed Lions67c35,947$24,085 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,862.6519864.6%128 W · 70 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick64cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3b26…8640backed Lions66c35,365$23,294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,071.481855.6%10 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.08per pick63cpaid-21%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf9fe…366bbacked 49ers39c32,861$12,965 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,964.8536246.7%169 W · 193 L-7.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-8.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xecbe…42ffbacked 49ers37c32,148$11,839 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,838.6633328.5%95 W · 238 L+16.7wins+0.05per pick24cpaid+19.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb511…01dabacked Lions64c31,000$19,690 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,309.993080%24 W · 6 L+4.1wins+0.14per pick66cpaid+18.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8a4c…532bbacked 49ers33c30,000$10,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,000771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.16per pick55cpaid+18.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2863…0e3ebacked 49ers34c29,592$9,963 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,962.541833.3%6 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-34.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae76…dce5backed 49ers36c28,143$10,029 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,029.0127339.2%107 W · 166 L-13.1wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-14.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa84b…5055backed Lions65c27,920$18,098 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,821.973976.9%30 W · 9 L+4.2wins+0.11per pick66cpaid+10.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xd1ac…08d5backed 49ers27c27,172$7,446 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,445.6712934.9%45 W · 84 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0054…7f85backed 49ers46c26,212$12,001 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,001.413743.2%16 W · 21 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick40cpaid-8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked 49ers33c25,342$8,442 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,442.0139754.4%216 W · 181 L+26.0wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+13.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0269…cb2dbacked 49ers34c24,568$8,310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,310.1144246.8%207 W · 235 L+10.7wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-1.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa28…e599backed 49ers47c21,280$10,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,019.84728.6%2 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick29cpaid-15.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa6ac…b899backed 49ers33c18,741$6,235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,235.232937.9%11 W · 18 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-23.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9981…dec4backed Lions65c18,682$12,190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,492.345472.2%39 W · 15 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick68cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e3e…b656backed Lions64c18,487$11,853 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,633.952864.3%18 W · 10 L+2.4wins+0.09per pick56cpaid+9.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6d61…75cfbacked Lions65c16,487$10,640 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,846.712171.4%15 W · 6 L+2.0wins+0.09per pick62cpaid+4.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4851…16dbbacked 49ers33c16,214$5,331 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,331.0721251.9%110 W · 102 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x994e…9cf5backed 49ers35c15,212$5,288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,288.233030%9 W · 21 L-2.1wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-22.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x45e1…f42dbacked Lions60c15,147$9,158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,989.320733.8%70 W · 137 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-24.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x94dc…c779backed Lions68c14,021$9,534 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,486.637853.8%42 W · 36 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-10.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x99c2…ef35backed 49ers34c13,940$4,740 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,739.7510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x27f2…702cbacked Lions68c13,653$9,284 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,369.099359.1%55 W · 38 L-6.8wins-0.07per pick67cpaid-12.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xeb94…d871backed Lions68c12,477$8,447 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,029.93265.6%21 W · 11 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+3.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x670d…0825backed 49ers34c12,471$4,226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,226.257037.1%26 W · 44 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0cc9…fc51backed Lions53c12,438$6,543 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,895.373871.1%27 W · 11 L+4.0wins+0.11per pick60cpaid+28.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd065…93e8backed Lions67c11,909$8,001 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,907.815565.5%36 W · 19 L+3.8wins+0.07per pick59cpaid+4.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked 49ers33c11,755$3,933 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,932.5731848.1%153 W · 165 L+5.8wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xed0e…b305backed 49ers37c11,015$4,049 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,048.578921.3%19 W · 70 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick22cpaid-32.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc64d…a1c9backed Lions64c10,627$6,844 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,783.366233.9%21 W · 41 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-20.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa39…b3c5backed 49ers34c10,462$3,563 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,563.421513.3%2 W · 13 L-1.9wins-0.13per pick26cpaid-46.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb3f9…2aa8backed Lions59c10,364$6,132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,231.8629059.7%173 W · 117 L+14.4wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+7.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3c82…e0cbbacked Lions51c10,345$5,259 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,086.3514147.5%67 W · 74 L+7.7wins+0.05per pick42cpaid-5.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdebb…eedbbacked 49ers34c10,213$3,478 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,477.966134.4%21 W · 40 L-2.6wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-31.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4e25…d7a7backed 49ers34c10,210$3,515 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,515.3413430.6%41 W · 93 L-12.1wins-0.09per pick40cpaid-39%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xae24…07c2backed Lions66c10,000$6,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,4003941%16 W · 23 L-1.9wins-0.05per pick46cpaid+24.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2b51…e165backed Lions67c10,000$6,689 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,310.7230446.7%142 W · 162 L-6.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8996…fbcebacked 49ers33c9,999$3,269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,269.259732%31 W · 66 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-24%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7dd0…2b4bbacked 49ers34c9,565$3,252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,252.178951.7%46 W · 43 L+5.7wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x574e…3ef1backed Lions53c9,451$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,450.9710334%35 W · 68 L-6.5wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-33.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x236a…9a00backed 49ers34c9,436$3,241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,240.621631.3%5 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-33.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe59b…488ebacked 49ers34c8,411$2,875 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,875.1714022.9%32 W · 108 L-12.8wins-0.09per pick32cpaid-28.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6cff…c3dabacked 49ers2c8,281$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.883821.1%8 W · 30 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick20cpaid+55.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa9d7…25e9backed 49ers39c8,182$3,172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,172.1410345.6%47 W · 56 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-14.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2765…7ee4backed 49ers47c7,707$3,624 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,623.9222838.6%88 W · 140 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-18.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7fea…8f74backed 49ers7c7,174$535 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$534.84330.2%13 W · 30 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-38.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2137…0677backed 49ers44c7,165$3,186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,186.0420440.7%83 W · 121 L+7.4wins+0.04per pick37cpaid-17%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7c85…77c6backed Lions63c7,055$4,444 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,610.1826857.1%153 W · 115 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+8.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf6c…7e66backed 49ers43c7,025$3,021 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,020.5414349%70 W · 73 L-0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-11.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe77f…4374backed 49ers35c6,868$2,404 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,404.213135.5%11 W · 20 L-2.8wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-30.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2d21…5fd9backed Lions64c6,804$4,341 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,463.63666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick61cpaid-3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa7b3…246abacked 49ers34c6,803$2,337 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,336.611471.4%10 W · 4 L+2.7wins+0.19per pick52cpaid+43.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc365…f1f5backed Lions65c6,787$4,442 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,344.43977.8%7 W · 2 L+1.6wins+0.18per pick60cpaid+23.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcd65…5726backed 49ers34c6,771$2,331 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,330.592055%11 W · 9 L+2.6wins+0.13per pick42cpaid+18.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8fe7…4f20backed 49ers35c6,740$2,351 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,350.742626.9%7 W · 19 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-10.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3ff9…bb89backed Lions66c6,698$4,421 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,277.479952.5%52 W · 47 L-7.4wins-0.07per pick60cpaid-15.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2d27…76d8backed 49ers34c6,613$2,249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,248.571769.1%16 W · 160 L-5.7wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-43%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9fe8…56a3backed Lions67c6,269$4,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,068.66366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick53cpaid+33.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xea3e…b956backed Lions70c6,263$4,389 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,874.1724351.4%125 W · 118 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-11.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x79a1…5801backed Lions65c6,178$3,986 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,192.2110768.2%73 W · 34 L+9.6wins+0.09per pick59cpaid+12%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7418…59e2backed 49ers33c6,000$1,980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,979.933426.5%9 W · 25 L-3.9wins-0.12per pick38cpaid-46.7%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xc8ec…3665backed Lions67c5,970$4,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,970.152665.4%17 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf22c…9050backed Lions67c5,406$3,622 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,783.832842.9%12 W · 16 L-1.9wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-28.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4d4b…a250backed Lions67c5,283$3,540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,743.4320949.8%104 W · 105 L-1.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a55…394ebacked Lions67c5,000$3,350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,6506639.4%26 W · 40 L-4.5wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-27.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x24fe…e52cbacked 49ers36c4,980$1,786 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,785.672828.6%8 W · 20 L-1.8wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-25.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7d9c…00f6backed Lions66c4,697$3,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,596.974245.2%19 W · 23 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8511…4a6bbacked 49ers56c4,620$2,587 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,5876752.2%35 W · 32 L+3.3wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xae09…fa6dbacked 49ers36c4,466$1,591 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5911346.2%6 W · 7 L+1.5wins+0.11per pick35cpaid+26.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x900d…2961backed Lions65c4,369$2,840 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,529.042360.9%14 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick65cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x906b…fd3cbacked 49ers33c4,282$1,413 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,413.13455.9%19 W · 15 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+1.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x75e0…fe50backed Lions70c4,235$2,977 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,257.5810960.6%66 W · 43 L+7.8wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+1.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd561…9423backed Lions67c4,205$2,805 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,399.6110467.3%70 W · 34 L+9.5wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+7.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa6d9…2d2ebacked 49ers40c4,146$1,658 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,658.341040%4 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2707…0afabacked Lions63c4,073$2,582 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,491.4322142.1%93 W · 128 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-12.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e79…56dcbacked 49ers34c4,005$1,375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,374.915424.1%13 W · 41 L-4.9wins-0.09per pick33cpaid-48.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9320…f7d7backed 49ers34c4,000$1,360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,359.971020%2 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.11per pick31cpaid-23.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb2c7…1b5bbacked 49ers34c4,000$1,368 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,367.9510738.3%41 W · 66 L-5.9wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-20.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd3a6…fd55backed 49ers48c3,943$1,890 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,89016832.1%54 W · 114 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-9.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4fff…d384backed Lions65c3,881$2,522 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,358.242100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x04eb…36a7backed Lions68c3,529$2,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,129.4119361.7%119 W · 74 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x52b4…1b36backed Lions65c3,459$2,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,209.191963.2%12 W · 7 L+2.2wins+0.12per pick51cpaid+8.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8ed5…a76ebacked Lions67c3,433$2,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,132.844772.3%34 W · 13 L+3.8wins+0.08per pick64cpaid+10.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x49ba…7f3cbacked 49ers34c3,322$1,129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,129.48366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick58cpaid-5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.