Champions League · resolved market
Will Bayern Munich vs. Celtic end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xee947b6aecafe869b56c033688a71dd9ee980302ea2ad66347888df063943ec2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $69,779
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $56,947
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $69,779 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Yes | 11c | 32,218$3,405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28,813.81 | 398 | 42.2%168 W · 230 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8df…3fbcbacked Yes | 11c | 10,432$1,147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,284.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.89per pick | 11cpaid | +809.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc167…4056backed Yes | 15c | 8,701$1,327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,374.12 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40e3…0787backed Yes | 12c | 2,068$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,815.17 | 92 | 44.6%41 W · 51 L | +5.9wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Yes | 27c | 1,713$463 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,250.77 | 368 | 51.1%188 W · 180 L | +15.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked No | 65c | 1,284$833 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$832.84 | 307 | 54.1%166 W · 141 L | +11.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed No | 13c | 1,199$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.87 | 170 | 48.2%82 W · 88 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed No | 78c | 1,016$789 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$788.75 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6ac…b899backed Yes | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$900 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d27…76d8backed Yes | 10c | 714.78$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$643.3 | 129 | 21.7%28 W · 101 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94eb…37e6backed Yes | 23c | 499.99$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384.99 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe27b…858fbacked Yes | 10c | 484.99$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$436.49 | 168 | 36.3%61 W · 107 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb43c…d43bbacked Yes | 12c | 420$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.6 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +3.1wins | +0.22per pick | 35cpaid | +120.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x51a6…5c40backed Yes | 10c | 413.54$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372.19 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.31per pick | 44cpaid | +216.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Yes | 36c | 300$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192 | 128 | 62.5%80 W · 48 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d09…3dcebacked Yes | 10c | 300$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.38per pick | 42cpaid | +220.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb701…7cf6backed Yes | 19c | 207.79$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.79 | 84 | 33.3%28 W · 56 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +35%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7554…38e2backed Yes | 22c | 205.86$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.86 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03cb…4bf9backed Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0ff…ca90backed No | 76c | 195$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.2 | 81 | 51.9%42 W · 39 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a86…5664backed Yes | 24c | 166.67$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.67 | 122 | 30.3%37 W · 85 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06be…8a46backed Yes | 11c | 150$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.5 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2453…28e2backed Yes | 36c | 140$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.6 | 74 | 40.5%30 W · 44 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4c8…d7febacked Yes | 10c | 136$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.90per pick | 10cpaid | +900%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf10f…004dbacked Yes | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.33 | 83 | 48.2%40 W · 43 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2be7…a41bbacked Yes | 11c | 127.27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.27 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +203%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…92c6backed Yes | 10c | 120$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +194.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3bb8…7471backed Yes | 58c | 114$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.88 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x824d…1e1fbacked Yes | 36c | 111.11$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.11 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf342…5f9dbacked No | 75c | 107.64$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.68 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 58cpaid | +110.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x671b…e4bdbacked Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +111.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a4f…c4f2backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | +5.5wins | +0.17per pick | 48cpaid | +63.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf332…1601backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadf4…ca91backed Yes | 32c | 93.75$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54ca…0a1cbacked Yes | 32c | 70.61$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.11 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb943…30a6backed Yes | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.56 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c76…477abacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 114 | 43%49 W · 65 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf211…5ffcbacked Yes | 32c | 35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.8 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef75…5d78backed No | 78c | 18.3$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.27 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2726…12c3backed No | 77c | 15.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -2.2wins | -0.32per pick | 75cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bayern Munich vs. Celtic end in a draw?this page
- Will Bayern Munich win on 2025-02-18?No won
- Will Celtic win on 2025-02-18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.