Champions League · resolved market
Will Bayern Munich win on 2025-02-18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x41eec28d4c34eaa69d5f99c14107e73ec1e9fa92aa62f61f1de00206ae03a350
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $140,063
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $139,216
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $140,063 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed No | 15c | 38,847$5,953 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32,893.95 | 398 | 42.2%168 W · 230 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x571c…1f49backed No | 16c | 22,000$3,520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,480 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.84per pick | 16cpaid | +525%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed No | 62c | 8,197$5,095 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,101.76 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed No | 17c | 6,000$1,020 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,979.99 | 210 | 37.1%78 W · 132 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40e3…0787backed No | 27c | 5,520$1,506 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,014.03 | 92 | 44.6%41 W · 51 L | +5.9wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed No | 17c | 4,107$698 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,408.84 | 402 | 22.9%92 W · 310 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | +9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4345…77fabacked Yes | 25c | 3,773$955 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$954.92 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5f…82cfbacked No | 16c | 3,617$579 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,038.19 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | +3.9wins | +0.13per pick | 13cpaid | +135.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5f…bf45backed Yes | 28c | 3,600$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 44 | 25%11 W · 33 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked No | 14c | 3,571$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,071.06 | 176 | 58.5%103 W · 73 L | +10.3wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37d8…b6ddbacked Yes | 28c | 3,519$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | -4.9wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf5c3…16adbacked No | 16c | 3,169$507 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,661.91 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +89.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked No | 70c | 2,872$2,004 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$867.63 | 368 | 51.1%188 W · 180 L | +15.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbf…2760backed Yes | 28c | 2,333$653 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$653.22 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 14c | 2,149$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,848.29 | 449 | 55.7%250 W · 199 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked No | 55c | 1,975$1,077 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$897.85 | 307 | 54.1%166 W · 141 L | +11.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed No | 16c | 1,500$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,259.8 | 96 | 43.8%42 W · 54 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4520…b2dabacked No | 17c | 1,440$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,195.2 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.24per pick | 47cpaid | +125.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ef4…292cbacked Yes | 71c | 1,410$1,001 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,001.1 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78a5…50b7backed No | 79c | 1,264$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.24 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4407…8f2bbacked No | 25c | 1,208$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$910.4 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0df9…6b44backed Yes | 17c | 1,206$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9353…cdbebacked Yes | 52c | 1,111$577 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$576.75 | 80 | 40%32 W · 48 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07dd…ed9dbacked Yes | 30c | 1,012$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 109 | 31.2%34 W · 75 L | -9.7wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x806b…874ebacked Yes | 2c | 997.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a93…ecf9backed No | 17c | 823.53$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$683.53 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +3.6wins | +0.36per pick | 34cpaid | +129.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2c43…b289backed Yes | 3c | 797$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.57 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfe8…fcabbacked Yes | 69c | 706.3$487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$487.35 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16cb…2704backed No | 16c | 680.86$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$571.92 | 380 | 48.7%185 W · 195 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd88…1ca6backed Yes | 76c | 576.86$438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$437.82 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -2.8wins | -0.12per pick | 60cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed No | 14c | 536$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460.96 | 469 | 56.5%265 W · 204 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94eb…37e6backed No | 73c | 499.99$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe27b…858fbacked No | 15c | 482.59$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410.2 | 168 | 36.3%61 W · 107 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d1…2b9ebacked Yes | 72c | 432.33$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.28 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | -3.9wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 16c | 338.65$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.66 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | +7.0wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed No | 14c | 326.62$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.06 | 383 | 56.7%217 W · 166 L | +11.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce72…3fc8backed No | 17c | 294.12$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.12 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +3.2wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +222.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x88a6…d4a9backed No | 16c | 262.5$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.5 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +196.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b7…520dbacked No | 17c | 200$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166 | 107 | 43%46 W · 61 L | +5.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7554…38e2backed Yes | 13c | 197.92$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8836…ae4fbacked Yes | 22c | 178.57$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfb…0dfabacked No | 17c | 176.47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.47 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +138.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb0…7652backed Yes | 67c | 149.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf8…3632backed Yes | 54c | 147.51$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked No | 13c | 140.53$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.19 | 283 | 57.2%162 W · 121 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed No | 17c | 139.24$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.57 | 132 | 38.6%51 W · 81 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f0b…eb6dbacked No | 16c | 125$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +9.3wins | +0.23per pick | 29cpaid | +261.3%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x3bb8…7471backed No | 52c | 117$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.64 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x921e…5acbbacked No | 17c | 111.76$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.76 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.73per pick | 27cpaid | +306.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdb8d…22c0backed No | 17c | 111.76$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.76 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +164.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67dd…d38ebacked No | 13c | 105$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.35 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +395.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked No | 16c | 100$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 65 | 58.5%38 W · 27 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb984…2a41backed No | 14c | 100$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 4cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaedb…3de3backed No | 17c | 100$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +166.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f7f…d498backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5036…416bbacked No | 15c | 99.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.99 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 49c | 99.99$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 257 | 35%90 W · 167 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f41…83f5backed No | 16c | 99.95$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.96 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a22…dd3bbacked No | 16c | 96.88$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.84per pick | 16cpaid | +525%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef75…5d78backed No | 36c | 95.35$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.49 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b3…403bbacked No | 16c | 91.94$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.85 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x394c…902dbacked No | 17c | 82.35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.35 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +268.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda21…d91dbacked No | 16c | 75$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 14cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee8…b97abacked No | 15c | 71$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.85per pick | 15cpaid | +566.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa954…bfdabacked No | 17c | 70.59$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.59 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +74.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6527…6c04backed No | 17c | 70.59$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.59 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +97.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64f1…ae82backed No | 17c | 65$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.95 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +296.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6174…a597backed No | 17c | 59.18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd14f…d46dbacked Yes | 71c | 52.82$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefef…cd06backed Yes | 69c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…7b6fbacked No | 75c | 46$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 174 | 66.1%115 W · 59 L | +11.8wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +11%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed No | 30c | 40.26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.18 | 196 | 45.4%89 W · 107 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe59c…65d2backed Yes | 66c | 37.88$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f4…0336backed Yes | 57c | 32$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67e8…2e6dbacked Yes | 36c | 30.85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +2.6wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +42%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4dd4…1bc4backed Yes | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95c8…9143backed Yes | 70c | 22.86$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea0…27f4backed Yes | 72c | 20.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2726…12c3backed Yes | 76c | 17.11$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -2.2wins | -0.32per pick | 75cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bayern Munich win on 2025-02-18?this page
- Will Bayern Munich vs. Celtic end in a draw?Yes won
- Will Celtic win on 2025-02-18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.