TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Patriots vs. Bills

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Billsof Patriots, Bills
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$736,379
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$900,547

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $736,379 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 194 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2fe6…ab9dbacked Patriots20c136,474$27,468 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27,468.1220634.5%71 W · 135 L-0.2wins0.00per pick35cpaid-24.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x94dc…c779backed Bills72c87,042$63,044 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,998.057853.8%42 W · 36 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-10.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2317…c891backed Bills76c44,523$33,907 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,616.335650%28 W · 28 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-12.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1484…cafebacked Patriots26c36,640$9,681 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,680.894755.3%26 W · 21 L+5.0wins+0.11per pick45cpaid+4.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Patriots22c35,715$7,759 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,758.5860049.3%296 W · 304 L+21.0wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+3.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0269…cb2dbacked Patriots12c23,198$2,889 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,888.8644246.8%207 W · 235 L+10.7wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-1.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x649f…993ebacked Patriots21c22,295$4,572 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,572.214746.8%22 W · 25 L+2.2wins+0.05per pick42cpaid-6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd42f…047dbacked Patriots9c22,000$1,980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,979.9632438%123 W · 201 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-15.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf519…906bbacked Patriots9c15,000$1,350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,3507042.9%30 W · 40 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick38cpaid-2.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc64d…a1c9backed Patriots3c13,761$409 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$408.926233.9%21 W · 41 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-20.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Patriots22c13,197$2,881 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,88131848.1%153 W · 165 L+5.8wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb8c4…7385backed Patriots19c10,708$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00011139.6%44 W · 67 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-14.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5339…9da3backed Patriots24c9,947$2,389 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,388.981838.9%7 W · 11 L-1.6wins-0.09per pick48cpaid-26.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb35b…fc08backed Patriots9c9,824$879 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$878.8917823%41 W · 137 L-5.1wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-48.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8996…fbcebacked Patriots9c5,926$536 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$535.929732%31 W · 66 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-24%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbd11…44e1backed Patriots27c5,783$1,563 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,563.1710%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe59b…488ebacked Patriots7c5,033$359 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$359.1714022.9%32 W · 108 L-12.8wins-0.09per pick32cpaid-28.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc9c8…44fbbacked Patriots9c5,000$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$449.9914837.2%55 W · 93 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-13.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a5e…c869backed Patriots10c4,051$407 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$406.6111738.5%45 W · 72 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-9.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xae76…dce5backed Patriots9c3,256$298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$298.1827339.2%107 W · 166 L-13.1wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-14.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x00db…a1d0backed Bills68c3,000$2,040 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9601100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb6be…fcfebacked Patriots10c2,717$269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$269.1324738.1%94 W · 153 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick39cpaid+10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4929…2c0dbacked Patriots35c2,630$921 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$920.66450%2 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-26.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa9d7…25e9backed Patriots21c2,603$545 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$545.110345.6%47 W · 56 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-14.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x371a…34b0backed Patriots4c2,574$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.734311.6%7 W · 424 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-82.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x480d…f219backed Patriots20c2,500$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50033047.9%158 W · 172 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x44ee…68f3backed Patriots10c2,500$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2501154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-8.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a61…5781backed Patriots22c2,289$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5001844.4%8 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-20.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4c80…a608backed Patriots18c2,000$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3605527.3%15 W · 40 L-5.6wins-0.10per pick38cpaid-31.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xae24…07c2backed Bills75c1,847$1,383 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$464.73941%16 W · 23 L-1.9wins-0.05per pick46cpaid+24.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x304a…eacfbacked Patriots2c1,800$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.1333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick25cpaid-46.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4673…d99bbacked Patriots35c1,500$525 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52528556.5%161 W · 124 L+9.3wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+3.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4851…16dbbacked Patriots8c1,461$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.9221251.9%110 W · 102 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd398…46d7backed Bills80c1,456$1,162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$293.4125643.8%112 W · 144 L+14.6wins+0.06per pick38cpaid-11.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3275…e7fcbacked Patriots36c1,407$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5004042.5%17 W · 23 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a64…4430backed Patriots17c1,383$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.9522638.9%88 W · 138 L-1.0wins0.00per pick39cpaid-22.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x45e1…f42dbacked Bills76c1,329$1,015 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$314.5920733.8%70 W · 137 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-24.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5eab…c98abacked Patriots4c1,171$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$422941.4%12 W · 17 L0.0wins0.00per pick41cpaid-30.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf689…8b15backed Patriots9c1,111$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.99757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick53cpaid-18.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x904b…429cbacked Bills74c1,103$821 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$281.8813051.5%67 W · 63 L+5.7wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+4.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x79a1…5801backed Bills78c1,100$855 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24510768.2%73 W · 34 L+9.6wins+0.09per pick59cpaid+12%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3c5f…19bcbacked Patriots12c1,096$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.7210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xfc25…1f7fbacked Patriots9c1,051$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.5512144.6%54 W · 67 L+6.4wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+15.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7418…59e2backed Patriots9c1,044$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.963426.5%9 W · 25 L-3.9wins-0.12per pick38cpaid-46.7%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x964b…167abacked Patriots19c1,027$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001668.8%11 W · 5 L+1.4wins+0.09per pick60cpaid+3.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xed7c…da06backed Patriots32c1,024$327 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$327.184634.8%16 W · 30 L-3.3wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-16.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Patriots10c1,000$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9510624.5%26 W · 80 L-12.6wins-0.12per pick36cpaid-40.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xb511…01dabacked Bills72c1,000$724 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2763080%24 W · 6 L+4.1wins+0.14per pick66cpaid+18.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x25de…794bbacked Patriots10c1,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1004447.7%21 W · 23 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-23%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e17…c36bbacked Patriots10c1,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick56cpaid-16.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaacf…5f84backed Patriots27c949.22$253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2531361.5%8 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick69cpaid-18%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfa5c…be69backed Patriots24c931.97$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.386333.3%21 W · 42 L-4.4wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-16.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x16b9…e828backed Patriots10c888$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.820%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x08c8…dc6abacked Bills75c867.74$651 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216.93250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-33.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x067f…a821backed Patriots15c815.18$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.9112842.2%54 W · 74 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-22.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5de8…cfb9backed Patriots27c800$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2165939%23 W · 36 L+3.2wins+0.05per pick34cpaid-6.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe877…bb43backed Patriots13c769.23$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1006028.3%17 W · 43 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-25.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbde5…9c38backed Bills78c700$545 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15530743.6%134 W · 173 L-1.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa6ac…b899backed Patriots9c700$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$632937.9%11 W · 18 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-23.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f19…aec2backed Bills63c697.3$439 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2583661.1%22 W · 14 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x60a5…2da4backed Patriots10c694$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.41618.8%3 W · 13 L-2.5wins-0.16per pick34cpaid-58.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6c91…5a71backed Patriots9c693$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.37450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-29.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa0db…ae23backed Bills74c691.16$513 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.911952.6%10 W · 9 L+2.7wins+0.14per pick39cpaid+5.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x353b…0d45backed Patriots23c653.26$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-35.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x620b…920ebacked Patriots10c652$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.2425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick43cpaid-68.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdbca…edd0backed Patriots10c622$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8492…0c3fbacked Patriots9c603$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.27333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-57.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3d69…9829backed Patriots10c600$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$608650%43 W · 43 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-13.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x179e…3496backed Patriots9c600$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-30.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d44…b15ebacked Bills75c599.99$453 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1472070%14 W · 6 L+3.2wins+0.16per pick54cpaid+29.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x45d5…695dbacked Patriots9c578$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.02450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-29.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32be…c085backed Patriots10c577$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.7250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.19per pick31cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2920…80bebacked Bills79c575.28$457 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.6712760.6%77 W · 50 L+9.2wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+1.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x69b8…0461backed Patriots10c562$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.2333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-58.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xed0e…b305backed Patriots9c555.94$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.038921.3%19 W · 70 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick22cpaid-32.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6afa…8f06backed Patriots9c550.81$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.571625%4 W · 12 L-2.3wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-45.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xaf35…b85abacked Patriots10c547$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.7333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-57.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe683…71e6backed Patriots24c543.54$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.45250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-21.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x74cd…2319backed Patriots4c517.71$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22397.7%3 W · 36 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick11cpaid-24.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8d4e…8be7backed Bills76c508.74$386 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.193250%16 W · 16 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x33cc…a0b6backed Bills80c500$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1007844.9%35 W · 43 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-13.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c57…5b16backed Patriots9c499.99$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4519543.6%85 W · 110 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x76df…dd48backed Patriots9c481$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.29333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-58.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xae92…2a14backed Patriots10c460$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd7a7…e598backed Patriots10c455$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.5540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-30.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3651…3a98backed Patriots10c454$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.4366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.25per pick42cpaid+34.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdd6f…64debacked Patriots9c452$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.68450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-29.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x98b4…5d76backed Bills76c450.69$342 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.525453.9%137 W · 117 L-0.3wins0.00per pick54cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c67…bb39backed Patriots10c450$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4520246%93 W · 109 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb6eb…50e9backed Patriots10c444$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.4475%3 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.29per pick47cpaid+42.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9706…13b9backed Patriots18c440.27$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.81922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick31cpaid-45.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2594…ea50backed Patriots10c439$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.9425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick40cpaid-68.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Patriots10c426.68$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.6777052.7%406 W · 364 L+24.8wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2707…0afabacked Patriots24c416.67$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10022142.1%93 W · 128 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-12.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f0a…e4eabacked Bills69c411.59$284 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.595766.7%38 W · 19 L+2.8wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+11%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf4cd…0516backed Patriots9c399.98$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$363842.1%16 W · 22 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-24.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d92…4b39backed Patriots12c399.97$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$482339.1%9 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick39cpaid-27.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x913e…1ba8backed Patriots11c357.69$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4030%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbffe…6239backed Patriots10c345$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.5560%3 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.21per pick39cpaid+19.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x76fc…2270backed Patriots20c338.9$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.782373.9%17 W · 6 L+3.3wins+0.14per pick60cpaid+20.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.