Bundesliga · resolved market
Will Hamburger SV win on 2026-01-10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x52f7863ea8f4d4b9a3d77784c9fbfe98a2e48d357a04d8e69fad055353980c95
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $75,017
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $79,109
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $75,017 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5021…18a6backed Yes | 0c | 10,334$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Yes | 20c | 3,050$610 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$610 | 71 | 11.3%8 W · 63 L | -5.6wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x13a1…d9bcbacked Yes | 21c | 2,791$596 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$596.04 | 160 | 60.6%97 W · 63 L | +9.1wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 19c | 2,791$528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$528.48 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe78e…55f0backed Yes | 19c | 2,017$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$383.2 | 59 | 40.7%24 W · 35 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6636…bf37backed No | 80c | 1,974$1,575 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$398.77 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +87.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 20c | 1,943$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.6 | 151 | 34.4%52 W · 99 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68d2…92c8backed No | 80c | 1,815$1,452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$363 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 80c | 1,734$1,388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.88 | 698 | 51.9%362 W · 336 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad5…37b9backed Yes | 20c | 1,644$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.85 | 52 | 30.8%16 W · 36 L | +6.9wins | +0.13per pick | 17cpaid | +193.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…d0e5backed No | 80c | 1,512$1,210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.4 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 80c | 1,308$1,044 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.86 | 193 | 47.2%91 W · 102 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Yes | 20c | 1,255$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.32 | 339 | 45.7%155 W · 184 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a85bbacked Yes | 7c | 1,098$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.89 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -3.1wins | -0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3eee…e8b6backed Yes | 21c | 1,005$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.05 | 109 | 45.9%50 W · 59 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab6d…b458backed Yes | 9c | 1,000$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.01 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacba…9256backed No | 80c | 1,000$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Yes | 7c | 957.14$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 536 | 45.9%246 W · 290 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d73…3639backed Yes | 7c | 934.22$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 23cpaid | -22%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes | 20c | 917$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.4 | 126 | 51.6%65 W · 61 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 9c | 814.58$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.86 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde6c…c5d8backed Yes | 19c | 568.81$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.07 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90e0…ff4cbacked Yes | 3c | 500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 60 | 10%6 W · 54 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +119.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb023…f142backed No | 80c | 500$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe271…1570backed Yes | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c38…de5abacked No | 80c | 500$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae3…493abacked Yes | 5c | 440$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 9c | 394.42$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.12 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3b…6598backed Yes | 18c | 368.36$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.3 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a6e…35b4backed No | 80c | 300$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 97 | 46.4%45 W · 52 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed Yes | 21c | 300$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 205 | 45.9%94 W · 111 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ad…fabcbacked Yes | 59c | 252.7$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.15 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Yes | 14c | 244.17$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.18 | 116 | 44%51 W · 65 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa451…b40dbacked Yes | 21c | 238.1$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6ac…b899backed Yes | 6c | 223.85$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.43 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…bf0bbacked Yes | 19c | 221.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.18 | 61 | 44.3%27 W · 34 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0599…3c6abacked Yes | 19c | 206.03$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Yes | 20c | 202.19$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 99 | 37.4%37 W · 62 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fe9…9c50backed Yes | 21c | 200$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb12…f057backed No | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 154 | 53.9%83 W · 71 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe351…e48dbacked Yes | 19c | 200$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x566e…1340backed Yes | 19c | 200$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda8c…47eabacked Yes | 12c | 199.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39cb…46e8backed No | 80c | 191.5$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.3 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 80c | 170$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 511 | 36.8%188 W · 323 L | -28.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked No | 73c | 150.71$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.94 | 89 | 46.1%41 W · 48 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf828…fca3backed Yes | 19c | 149.69$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.96 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Yes | 19c | 149.4$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.39 | 97 | 21.6%21 W · 76 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed No | 75c | 147.82$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.96 | 165 | 42.4%70 W · 95 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…6749backed Yes | 35c | 145$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.42 | 65 | 53.8%35 W · 30 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd306…4320backed Yes | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 52 | 32.7%17 W · 35 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +67.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed No | 80c | 103.69$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.04 | 147 | 56.5%83 W · 64 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 39c | 102.7$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.65 | 337 | 37.4%126 W · 211 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb4…8830backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +3.7wins | +0.22per pick | 37cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd121…b0a5backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5adf…a5e7backed Yes | 19c | 99.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd28d…c9c6backed Yes | 21c | 94.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79df…1661backed Yes | 20c | 75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 85 | 31.8%27 W · 58 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5b…5950backed Yes | 17c | 64.51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1523…2e5fbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6880…b882backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c82…05cfbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | -7.0wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4ad2…b231backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd35…ecebbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 37cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f40…6dc6backed No | 70c | 36.67$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 11 | 90.9%10 W · 1 L | +3.4wins | +0.31per pick | 60cpaid | +57.3%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x205b…d66abacked No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26ae…97b8backed No | 79c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 74 | 66.2%49 W · 25 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 80c | 17$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.4 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed No | 80c | 15.62$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.12 | 112 | 81.3%91 W · 21 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 76cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 78c | 13.12$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.86 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Hamburger SV win on 2026-01-10?this page
- Will SC Freiburg vs. Hamburger SV end in a draw?No won
- Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-01-10?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.