TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

Will SC Freiburg vs. Hamburger SV end in a draw?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$76,881
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$77,107

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $76,881 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 103 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb784…61d0backed No74c34,011$25,168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,842.742373.9%17 W · 6 L+2.9wins+0.13per pick61cpaid+39.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x827f…7f59backed Yes26c15,000$3,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,9001553.3%8 W · 7 L+1.6wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+25.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Yes28c10,997$3,048 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,048.43,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4466…9ad1backed No74c5,017$3,713 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,304.42666.7%4 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick74cpaid-11.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4133…5e70backed No65c3,768$2,431 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,337.6975142.5%319 W · 432 L-26.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfed7…e405backed Yes26c3,000$780 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7809549.5%47 W · 48 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-5.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Yes26c2,852$742 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$741.5256547.8%270 W · 295 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe648…b79abacked Yes27c2,438$647 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6473834.2%13 W · 25 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked No70c2,364$1,645 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$719.422,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdddc…ced2backed Yes60c1,956$1,173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,173.2810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes24c1,697$405 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$404.851,68145.2%759 W · 922 L+6.8wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d2f…ef1abacked No73c1,352$987 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$365.172250%11 W · 11 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+12.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd04d…d0e5backed No73c1,290$942 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$348.35457.4%31 W · 23 L+2.6wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+1.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xacba…9256backed Yes26c1,168$304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303.633548.6%17 W · 18 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xab6d…b458backed Yes38c1,000$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$380633.3%2 W · 4 L0.0wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-26.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaeb5…58e2backed Yes8c1,000$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$804544.4%20 W · 25 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+13.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes26c999.03$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$259.7512651.6%65 W · 61 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-10.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6834…c8d3backed No74c999.03$739 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$259.75633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-54.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cea…6e90backed Yes10c800$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8020%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Yes31c745.12$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.0153645.9%246 W · 290 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x908a…ad16backed Yes31c715.86$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222.2751136.8%188 W · 323 L-28.0wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-24.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Yes21c707.94$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.611644%51 W · 65 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-27.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb0df…8f41backed No70c533.99$372 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.56167.2%41 W · 20 L-2.4wins-0.04per pick71cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf641…7b6fbacked No76c500$381 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.4522669%156 W · 70 L+13.1wins+0.06per pick63cpaid+25.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9e3b…6598backed Yes3c499.98$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151315.4%2 W · 11 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick21cpaid-48.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe309…958dbacked No75c480$360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick75cpaid-13.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe6a2…9874backed Yes27c400$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1086344.4%28 W · 35 L+9.8wins+0.16per pick29cpaid+50.6%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x89ef…dbeebacked No74c390.54$289 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.54250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-32.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Yes26c389.05$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.2644749.4%221 W · 226 L+13.2wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5e5b…5950backed No65c379.42$248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.092650%13 W · 13 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+14.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x865f…e88ebacked Yes27c372.91$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.7434342%144 W · 199 L-0.4wins0.00per pick42cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes8c366.51$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.324619.6%9 W · 37 L-5.9wins-0.13per pick32cpaid-54.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1edb…6511backed No74c364.86$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.861100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa165…e03bbacked No74c354.05$262 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.051100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc60f…9ea3backed Yes6c320$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.2250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick23cpaid+28.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Yes26c312.16$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.1669851.9%362 W · 336 L+22.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed Yes26c300$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$785326.4%14 W · 39 L-3.3wins-0.06per pick33cpaid-25.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x814c…7ffabacked Yes26c300$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7819446.4%90 W · 104 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-14.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe328…f4a3backed Yes8c300$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.1520%1 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-66.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9a6e…35b4backed Yes26c300$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$789746.4%45 W · 52 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6835…1976backed Yes27c300$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8120545.9%94 W · 111 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed No72c283.99$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.2310040%40 W · 60 L-3.8wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-12%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3740…f38dbacked Yes29c272.41$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7940%0 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x25a8…c498backed No74c248.65$184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.651100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1294…9dbabacked No67c244.98$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.54633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-47.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0499…c2a1backed No74c240.51$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.531100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Yes22c216$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.1123842.9%102 W · 136 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-13.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a46…ba91backed Yes48c208.33$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1008858%51 W · 37 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick55cpaid-4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4706…286ebacked Yes26c200$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5216045%72 W · 88 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-12.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe351…e48dbacked Yes26c200$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$524938.8%19 W · 30 L-3.7wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-17.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x566e…1340backed Yes26c200$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$525250%26 W · 26 L+0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1ad…fabcbacked No75c198.62$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.94856.3%27 W · 21 L-0.2wins0.00per pick57cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc6b8…6b25backed No73c191.78$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.781100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4597…272bbacked Yes27c185.19$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503246.9%15 W · 17 L+2.1wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+5.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Yes26c184.69$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.914756.5%83 W · 64 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Yes27c183$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.4115134.4%52 W · 99 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5151…4e57backed Yes26c176.92$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$464353.5%23 W · 20 L+3.2wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+11.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbce1…5555backed Yes17c176.92$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-25.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x727d…1589backed Yes9c175.53$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.387230.6%22 W · 50 L-4.6wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-32.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6955…f54bbacked Yes27c174.07$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47650%3 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-19.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa01…f0a7backed Yes27c167$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.0917055.3%94 W · 76 L-0.8wins0.00per pick56cpaid-9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda1e…f6a4backed Yes48c156.25$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfee4…d386backed Yes26c151.44$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.3718746%86 W · 101 L-9.8wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-14.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe6e4…22ccbacked Yes26c150$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$394440.9%18 W · 26 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick37cpaid+2.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe513…3328backed Yes38c144.74$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55933.3%3 W · 6 L-2.0wins-0.22per pick56cpaid-40.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xcef7…e7d7backed Yes32c121.79$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.394062.5%25 W · 15 L+7.2wins+0.18per pick44cpaid+98.1%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x789b…4c08backed Yes33c112.65$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.361735.3%6 W · 11 L-3.8wins-0.22per pick57cpaid-45.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x9018…c0d1backed No74c112.16$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.161100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf2ae…74c0backed Yes45c111.11$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$509856.1%55 W · 43 L-5.6wins-0.06per pick62cpaid-8.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1b2c…5e10backed Yes27c111.11$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3011250.9%57 W · 55 L+6.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+7.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4818…bf0bbacked No73c110.99$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.976144.3%27 W · 34 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-17.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x54ee…6602backed Yes38c102.63$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3920%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb5f8…ef29backed No74c101.35$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.351100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c13…99b7backed Yes27c100$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$272927.6%8 W · 21 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-14.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3053…8b0dbacked Yes17c95.57$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.07520%1 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-55.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb29…ea29backed No72c93.53$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.651127.3%3 W · 8 L-2.6wins-0.24per pick51cpaid-56.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf711…db0bbacked Yes26c88$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.882128.6%6 W · 15 L-4.1wins-0.19per pick48cpaid-57.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked No70c84.84$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.0334144.6%152 W · 189 L-8.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd306…4320backed Yes25c79.99$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205232.7%17 W · 35 L+3.4wins+0.07per pick26cpaid+67.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8ed7…eb18backed Yes26c75.72$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.6940%0 W · 4 L-2.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9aaf…8298backed Yes26c75$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.521450%107 W · 107 L+0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd2d7…ba47backed Yes26c75$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.56251.6%32 W · 30 L-0.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e6f…c966backed Yes27c74.07$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202536%9 W · 16 L+2.4wins+0.10per pick26cpaid+33%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc1c1…a2d1backed Yes27c66.85$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf621…679cbacked Yes34c58.82$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x604d…4608backed Yes26c57.69$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152737%10 W · 17 L+0.1wins0.00per pick37cpaid-18.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d66…0e16backed Yes27c55.56$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick40cpaid+11%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0548…77c2backed Yes27c55.56$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1520%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7d2a…3daebacked Yes38c52.63$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204344.2%19 W · 24 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+8.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x543c…edabbacked Yes60c50$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30520%1 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.29per pick49cpaid-69.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2df5…51acbacked Yes30c49.23$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-0.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc28a…913cbacked Yes27c45$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.2420%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x958d…3501backed Yes47c42.55$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205952.5%31 W · 28 L-7.4wins-0.13per pick65cpaid-19.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xa4ba…c5d8backed No73c41$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.0715160.9%92 W · 59 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick59cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6eb3…ce7cbacked Yes60c33.33$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3789…e42fbacked Yes60c33.33$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick57cpaid+21.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5163…9a4fbacked No63c31.75$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.751040%4 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-33%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x205b…d66abacked No69c30$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.32560%15 W · 10 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick65cpaid-4.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb06…4077backed No74c27.03$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.031100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x26ae…97b8backed No73c21$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.677466.2%49 W · 25 L+5.1wins+0.07per pick59cpaid+12.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.