Champions League · resolved market
Will the match between Paris Saint-Germain and Manchester City end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2a9a6f9c3dc3aeb8ec0e67ebf580dd06c397601beb8c27e41a6db8037e2fa823
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,068
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,964
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,068 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4a64…4430backed No | 69c | 989.61$683 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.25 | 226 | 47.3%107 W · 119 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6245…d3c0backed Yes | 29c | 928.28$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.48 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -7.9wins | -0.21per pick | 50cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x212a…dbe8backed Yes | 23c | 630.24$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed No | 64c | 400$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143 | 173 | 48%83 W · 90 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 74c | 303$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.78 | 449 | 55.7%250 W · 199 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked No | 67c | 277.9$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.03 | 307 | 54.1%166 W · 141 L | +11.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5327…3b80backed Yes | 26c | 198.85$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.7 | 65 | 27.7%18 W · 47 L | -8.3wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…9ef1backed Yes | 11c | 180.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.31 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Yes | 30c | 118.63$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.59 | 128 | 62.5%80 W · 48 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1928…acc4backed No | 74c | 107.43$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.43 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e4…d6b2backed No | 74c | 101$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.26 | 187 | 54.5%102 W · 85 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30b9…9b83backed Yes | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 52cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0ced…12b2backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99c2…ef35backed No | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 74 | 60.8%45 W · 29 L | +6.5wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa64a…21dabacked Yes | 22c | 91.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 15cpaid | +74.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe27b…858fbacked No | 74c | 86$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.36 | 168 | 36.3%61 W · 107 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4a…8e5dbacked No | 74c | 60.99$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.86 | 213 | 54%115 W · 98 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcaf…8229backed Yes | 42c | 59.52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked No | 58c | 59.52$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 368 | 51.1%188 W · 180 L | +15.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc84a…9099backed No | 74c | 59.14$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.28 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d3…a515backed Yes | 26c | 57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 48cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x74cd…2319backed Yes | 19c | 56.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 107 | 17.8%19 W · 88 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97df…3088backed Yes | 59c | 50.85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc52…a021backed Yes | 30c | 46.23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.87 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1370…bba3backed No | 54c | 41.87$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92a0…4831backed No | 57c | 34$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6ac…b899backed Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0ff…ca90backed No | 63c | 27.03$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 81 | 51.9%42 W · 39 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1143…6a5abacked Yes | 45c | 25.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23f0…96dfbacked Yes | 45c | 23.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the match between Paris Saint-Germain and Manchester City end in a draw?this page
- Will Manchester City beat Paris Saint-Germain?No won
- Will Paris Saint-Germain beat Manchester City?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.