Champions League · resolved market
Will Paris Saint-Germain beat Manchester City?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x86071e1c80b41d646ece2e134c7194fef09ff1244ac3a8b00ca3ab025baa38f9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,124
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,083
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,124 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x12d6…dbbcbacked Yes | 37c | 3,000$1,110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,889.98 | 123 | 59.3%73 W · 50 L | +12.4wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +16%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe626…2fe6backed No | 63c | 2,381$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 65cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed No | 45c | 1,723$778 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$778.1 | 226 | 47.3%107 W · 119 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99c2…ef35backed No | 63c | 1,670$1,052 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,052.18 | 74 | 60.8%45 W · 29 L | +6.5wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x44bc…96b2backed No | 1c | 1,580$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95f6…d035backed No | 53c | 1,540$813 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$812.68 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8889…a9d1backed No | 68c | 1,267$864 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$863.67 | 164 | 47.6%78 W · 86 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc745…9499backed Yes | 41c | 1,220$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$720.24 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +64.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00a1…5062backed Yes | 38c | 1,053$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$652.63 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +192.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x763f…81e9backed No | 63c | 807.86$509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$508.95 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x834e…8015backed No | 52c | 600$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.4 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c76…477abacked Yes | 34c | 600$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396 | 114 | 43%49 W · 65 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2453…28e2backed Yes | 35c | 550$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$357.5 | 74 | 40.5%30 W · 44 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x700f…62d8backed Yes | 37c | 540.54$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.54 | 152 | 50.7%77 W · 75 L | +9.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16cb…2704backed Yes | 37c | 500$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315 | 380 | 48.7%185 W · 195 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1638…339bbacked Yes | 37c | 487.85$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.34 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +2.2wins | +0.17per pick | 14cpaid | +147%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7eee…b4b2backed No | 63c | 467.84$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.1 | 47 | 68.1%32 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…9ef1backed No | 60c | 430.43$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.23 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47c6…be32backed Yes | 39c | 400$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -4.6wins | -0.18per pick | 45cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2e…2358backed No | 50c | 399.98$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.99 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb018…8f4bbacked Yes | 45c | 365.1$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.6 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x358e…b0ccbacked No | 68c | 306.62$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.18 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -3.2wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x047b…ef6fbacked No | 63c | 300$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Yes | 31c | 291.58$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.19 | 368 | 51.1%188 W · 180 L | +15.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60b2…3ccebacked No | 61c | 289.07$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.33 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3869…2d67backed Yes | 37c | 259.99$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.79 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed No | 63c | 250$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.5 | 244 | 55.7%136 W · 108 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd78d…60bebacked Yes | 22c | 243.33$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.03 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +128.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbf…2760backed Yes | 38c | 234.96$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.68 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked No | 70c | 202.71$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.91 | 307 | 54.1%166 W · 141 L | +11.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf699…07e1backed Yes | 61c | 200$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79 | 204 | 62.3%127 W · 77 L | +19.1wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x330b…69f1backed No | 66c | 200$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -3.0wins | -0.14per pick | 50cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x97df…3088backed Yes | 27c | 182.61$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.14 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba99…8f26backed Yes | 17c | 179.47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.47 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +28%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…2683backed No | 62c | 176.15$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.21 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0ff…ca90backed No | 62c | 176.14$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.21 | 81 | 51.9%42 W · 39 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed No | 63c | 150.79$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 206 | 67.5%139 W · 67 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66b7…176cbacked Yes | 29c | 150$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.1 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe219…d8afbacked Yes | 36c | 139.47$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.47 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +5.6wins | +0.15per pick | 31cpaid | +33%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa64a…21dabacked Yes | 15c | 129.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.41 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 15cpaid | +74.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a06…d20ebacked Yes | 41c | 121.03$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.03 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed No | 65c | 108.33$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.33 | 173 | 48%83 W · 90 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd2…8759backed No | 64c | 104.11$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.2 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.7wins | -0.34per pick | 59cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfbfe…5247backed No | 63c | 101.59$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 173 | 22%38 W · 135 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…4bccbacked Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 106 | 31.1%33 W · 73 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945e…2acabacked Yes | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7012…4035backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 25cpaid | +276.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1218…366bbacked Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 11 | 90.9%10 W · 1 L | +6.0wins | +0.54per pick | 37cpaid | +180.9%equal weight | 68+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x4a73…bb67backed No | 62c | 83.66$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.87 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x71cd…912dbacked No | 77c | 82.61$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.61 | 132 | 32.6%43 W · 89 L | +12.1wins | +0.09per pick | 23cpaid | +172.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x98e0…bf01backed No | 65c | 76.92$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 62cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbad6…9963backed No | 62c | 66.58$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.4 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +3.2wins | +0.14per pick | 58cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe27b…858fbacked Yes | 38c | 61.32$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.02 | 168 | 36.3%61 W · 107 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…3534backed No | 63c | 55.56$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 56 | 58.9%33 W · 23 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f33…b133backed Yes | 28c | 54.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +260.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc52…a021backed Yes | 31c | 44.9$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.03 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68db…15e0backed No | 62c | 35.74$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc84a…9099backed No | 73c | 34.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.76 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e66…4edabacked No | 64c | 33.55$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4e5…b199backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92a0…4831backed No | 64c | 24.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.01 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f4…5781backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.25per pick | 47cpaid | -66%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Paris Saint-Germain beat Manchester City?this page
- Will Manchester City beat Paris Saint-Germain?No won
- Will the match between Paris Saint-Germain and Manchester City end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.