TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Nets vs. Wizards

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Wizardsof Nets, Wizards
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,721,859
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,808,585

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,721,859 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 831 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9c16…09cbbacked Nets46c143,261$65,778 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65,777.5413248.5%64 W · 68 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid+3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e82…752cbacked Wizards52c141,915$73,998 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67,916.591,20455.3%666 W · 538 L+52.0wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+12.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x18d1…dbcbbacked Nets42c99,287$42,175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42,1759641.7%40 W · 56 L-4.0wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-3.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7b6c…6305backed Nets47c97,543$45,850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45,849.577941.8%33 W · 46 L+3.8wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+20.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Nets43c64,787$27,595 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27,595.052,29851.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L+65.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Nets40c57,500$23,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23,199.941,37450.1%689 W · 685 L+34.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x56e2…4b88backed Wizards50c55,617$27,809 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27,808.595253.8%28 W · 24 L+5.0wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+27.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed Wizards58c54,929$31,859 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,069.991,04651.1%534 W · 512 L-0.7wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84cb…28adbacked Wizards59c51,236$30,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,236.0816846.4%78 W · 90 L-13.2wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-15.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x906f…88b4backed Wizards52c49,102$25,336 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,765.7422453.1%119 W · 105 L+7.6wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa315…cabbbacked Wizards56c39,678$22,302 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,376.1862351.4%320 W · 303 L-13.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-2.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb27…c56ebacked Wizards54c36,520$19,721 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,799.187144.7%389 W · 482 L+14.9wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Nets44c36,109$15,732 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,731.736,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf668…5c69backed Wizards52c35,957$18,698 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,259.5636359.8%217 W · 146 L+23.7wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+14.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Wizards60c31,039$18,556 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,482.092,09147.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L-56.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb45a…192cbacked Nets42c30,728$12,973 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,973.0754539.6%216 W · 329 L-28.2wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-11.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0aa3…64e9backed Nets46c30,333$13,953 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,953.186358.7%37 W · 26 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xedc8…cca9backed Nets42c30,067$12,708 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,707.620551.2%105 W · 100 L+8.6wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+12.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe258…2330backed Wizards59c30,066$17,738 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,327.7123245.3%105 W · 127 L+0.5wins0.00per pick45cpaid+4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c10…8977backed Nets51c28,124$14,263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,262.6462347.7%297 W · 326 L-9.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-1.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Wizards59c27,230$16,149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,081.012,04548.4%990 W · 1,055 L-30.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd538…cc31backed Nets51c24,100$12,261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,26121450%107 W · 107 L-14.6wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-12.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1d56…7486backed Wizards50c24,100$12,080 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,019.9817861.2%109 W · 69 L+11.4wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+14.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Wizards55c24,047$13,204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,842.931,90854.5%1,040 W · 868 L+53.7wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8980…d4f4backed Wizards58c23,958$13,920 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,037.9721951.1%112 W · 107 L+7.4wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+9.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x660a…3e86backed Nets1c21,864$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.641553.3%8 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.10per pick64cpaid-24.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd4da…3175backed Wizards56c19,110$10,710 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,400.371547.7%341 W · 374 L-26.9wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-6.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdefe…5432backed Wizards59c18,000$10,620 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,379.987468.9%51 W · 23 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick67cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Nets10c16,775$1,733 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,733.152,16940.8%885 W · 1,284 L-8.7wins0.00per pick41cpaid-14.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Nets26c16,050$4,231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,230.841,00334.7%348 W · 655 L-44.7wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-35.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x062a…c2a3backed Nets40c16,000$6,420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,42019048.4%92 W · 98 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+25.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Wizards56c15,930$8,944 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,985.333,59150.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L+21.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5350…2fdabacked Wizards57c15,000$8,550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,45012147.9%58 W · 63 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid+7.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7517…0353backed Nets33c14,663$4,811 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,810.9127865.8%183 W · 95 L+25.4wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+10.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4137…586cbacked Nets52c14,000$7,340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,34047043.8%206 W · 264 L-22.2wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-12.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Wizards74c11,545$8,527 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,018.411,19032%381 W · 809 L-58.1wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-34.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x03ac…4f55backed Nets52c11,110$5,722 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,721.5936741.4%152 W · 215 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick42cpaid+3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf5d9…a6e1backed Wizards75c10,718$8,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,718.035667.9%38 W · 18 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick63cpaid+2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3a7a…15a4backed Wizards58c10,345$6,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,344.8331044.8%139 W · 171 L+1.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5116…58c4backed Wizards60c10,038$6,023 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,015.276850.3%386 W · 382 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9cb9…32f2backed Wizards60c10,000$6,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,00038434.9%134 W · 250 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+12.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb802…5bbebacked Nets52c9,615$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,000850%4 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.15per pick66cpaid-24.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe524…d34fbacked Nets43c9,400$4,042 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,04210930.3%33 W · 76 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x696a…e23abacked Wizards55c9,091$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,090.9117151.5%88 W · 83 L+7.3wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+9.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed Nets14c9,063$1,240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,240.3483039.4%327 W · 503 L+6.3wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-20.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x542c…9536backed Nets46c9,000$4,170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,1708348.2%40 W · 43 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e3a…4033backed Wizards58c8,621$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,620.6934062.1%211 W · 129 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Wizards71c8,420$5,973 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,447.215,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe659…57bbbacked Nets43c8,200$3,495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,495.59552.6%50 W · 45 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick54cpaid+3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6bb3…758ebacked Wizards55c8,140$4,511 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,629.2695651.5%492 W · 464 L+23.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x817b…3c25backed Wizards54c8,000$4,351 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,6491,04841.1%431 W · 617 L+23.6wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa849…c825backed Nets48c8,000$3,830 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,830.0316641%68 W · 98 L-12.9wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-17.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5b8e…5c3cbacked Wizards55c7,363$4,017 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,345.8544459.7%265 W · 179 L+12.4wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfc25…1f7fbacked Wizards57c7,217$4,097 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,120.1996447.8%461 W · 503 L+35.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+17.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Nets14c7,000$980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9801,26944.5%565 W · 704 L+32.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Nets39c6,853$2,687 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,687.4481529.4%240 W · 575 L-37.0wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-43%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x89f3…dfffbacked Nets17c6,741$1,176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,17634227.2%93 W · 249 L-8.4wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-17.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2c28…7ba5backed Wizards48c6,001$2,880 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,120.5113148.9%64 W · 67 L0.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid+15.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x35bd…1ecfbacked Nets51c6,001$3,060 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,060.4414945.6%68 W · 81 L-6.3wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-3.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Nets18c5,572$1,003 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,003.021,34129.9%401 W · 940 L-53.8wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-35.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7bd8…aeabbacked Wizards56c5,562$3,095 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,466.5130947.6%147 W · 162 L-0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9534…1fe8backed Nets48c5,399$2,610 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,609.8726247.7%125 W · 137 L+14.2wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+9.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbf68…cf61backed Nets52c5,253$2,732 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,731.7810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Nets42c5,177$2,174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,174.341,21248.3%586 W · 626 L-20.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8013…5b52backed Wizards55c5,160$2,839 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,320.817554.9%96 W · 79 L+15.0wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+31.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb515…57b2backed Wizards47c5,155$2,423 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,732.2250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7960…b94fbacked Nets40c5,000$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00019751.8%102 W · 95 L+9.2wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+8.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x18e3…08f2backed Wizards47c4,840$2,275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,565.41250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid+6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x019d…2b01backed Nets52c4,808$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,50029037.9%110 W · 180 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-4.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x575c…5474backed Nets52c4,742$2,466 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,465.96250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfbf3…b218backed Wizards57c4,563$2,601 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,962.0929245.5%133 W · 159 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd2b…7f04backed Wizards57c4,300$2,451 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,8498348.2%40 W · 43 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-6.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21c2…6749backed Nets27c4,272$1,137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,137.3761939.6%245 W · 374 L-17.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-18.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcc63…f1c7backed Wizards48c4,087$1,978 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,108.5750653.2%269 W · 237 L+8.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x081e…f76ebacked Wizards50c4,000$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,00025945.6%118 W · 141 L-11.5wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-9.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x49d1…2a44backed Wizards57c4,000$2,280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,7202450%12 W · 12 L+0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x67bb…b6efbacked Wizards73c4,000$2,920 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,08034456.7%195 W · 149 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5993…33a2backed Wizards77c3,988$3,086 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$902.9138046.6%177 W · 203 L-1.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x03f9…f78ebacked Nets25c3,960$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00013339.1%52 W · 81 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe6a3…2f0dbacked Wizards48c3,933$1,888 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,045.2619560%117 W · 78 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Wizards57c3,886$2,214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,672.569,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Nets34c3,850$1,305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,304.51,22637.4%458 W · 768 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-21.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x418b…a741backed Nets2c3,850$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$773759.5%22 W · 15 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-9.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf7bb…a9f7backed Nets54c3,800$2,054 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0543844.7%17 W · 21 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick48cpaid+15.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x414b…73bcbacked Nets53c3,774$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00014753.1%78 W · 69 L+8.6wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+10.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Wizards57c3,585$2,029 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,555.872,73646.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L-67.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x447e…9710backed Wizards58c3,567$2,066 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,500.595251.9%27 W · 25 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+20.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ade…f5b0backed Wizards57c3,372$1,922 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,450.011,55652.8%822 W · 734 L+40.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+10.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa6da…7e3ebacked Wizards65c3,307$2,158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,149.114932.7%16 W · 33 L-11.2wins-0.23per pick55cpaid-45.5%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x2ec0…f7aabacked Nets49c3,111$1,529 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,528.7114254.9%78 W · 64 L+9.3wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+17.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xabf5…cfebbacked Wizards53c3,000$1,590 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,41048054.2%260 W · 220 L+14.0wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaddc…ed0dbacked Wizards45c2,929$1,318 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,610.891275%9 W · 3 L+2.1wins+0.18per pick57cpaid+24.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x12fd…90c0backed Nets41c2,722$1,116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,115.9628439.8%113 W · 171 L+0.4wins0.00per pick40cpaid+4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9a10…543cbacked Wizards55c2,695$1,482 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,212.632962.1%18 W · 11 L+3.5wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+21.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6884…6ccfbacked Nets50c2,597$1,303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,302.8739051.5%201 W · 189 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb875…68a8backed Nets42c2,507$1,053 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,05310144.6%45 W · 56 L-5.1wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-11.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x494e…c549backed Nets53c2,500$1,325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,32511836.4%43 W · 75 L-12.3wins-0.10per pick47cpaid-20.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Nets35c2,500$875 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8753,34243.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L+81.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Wizards58c2,500$1,450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0501,66752.7%878 W · 789 L+45.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc127…66e9backed Wizards48c2,500$1,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,30011657.8%67 W · 49 L+8.7wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+18.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.