NBA · resolved market
Nets vs. Wizards: O/U 226.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xace2c14f7de6acda1d1092f4a9fb71f2e3b3f506c970876503ebaf8bb44dc7cd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,471
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,868
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,471 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x28dc…a1f2backed Under | 51c | 2,294$1,170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,124.11 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa849…c825backed Over | 45c | 2,000$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 166 | 41%68 W · 98 L | -12.9wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf93f…f94bbacked Over | 55c | 1,600$880 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$880 | 166 | 33.7%56 W · 110 L | -11.6wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 43c | 1,355$586 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$586 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 45c | 1,147$517 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$630.1 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ae2…20a3backed Over | 44c | 859.27$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378.08 | 139 | 51.1%71 W · 68 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc443…359bbacked Under | 57c | 771.93$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.93 | 238 | 45%107 W · 131 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 48c | 658.91$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.64 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 43c | 499.99$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd397…5052backed Under | 57c | 351.04$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.04 | 271 | 61.3%166 W · 105 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Over | 51c | 314.81$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.24 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…4f9cbacked Under | 51c | 294.12$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.12 | 155 | 43.2%67 W · 88 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Over | 43c | 279.07$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 660 | 46.8%309 W · 351 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Under | 52c | 265$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.2 | 1,908 | 54.5%1,040 W · 868 L | +53.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c9b…a556backed Under | 51c | 245.1$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.1 | 229 | 53.7%123 W · 106 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a0f…69b2backed Over | 50c | 211.7$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.85 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8208…1742backed Under | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -3.2wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Under | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 1,197 | 47.5%569 W · 628 L | -32.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7289…8d16backed Under | 49c | 200$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 133 | 54.1%72 W · 61 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe025…102fbacked Under | 51c | 195.98$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.98 | 156 | 49.4%77 W · 79 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Over | 50c | 184.63$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.67 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb0b…3790backed Under | 11c | 178$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.42 | 279 | 37.3%104 W · 175 L | +57.6wins | +0.21per pick | 17cpaid | +187%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x042a…7f4cbacked Under | 57c | 176.4$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.4 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92cf…8b35backed Under | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.44 | 1,110 | 52%577 W · 533 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b4b…14e2backed Under | 53c | 113.21$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.21 | 235 | 47.7%112 W · 123 L | +8.3wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed Over | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 1,390 | 26%361 W · 1,029 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01f8…4656backed Over | 52c | 95$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.95 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.24per pick | 47cpaid | +110.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 57c | 70.18$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.18 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4da7…ff92backed Over | 44c | 60$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 1,562 | 47.4%741 W · 821 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 59c | 49.7$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7422…e383backed Over | 51c | 46.72$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.03 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75aa…026dbacked Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +49%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedb5…ce8ebacked Under | 61c | 32.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.63 | 217 | 56.7%123 W · 94 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f1e…7834backed Over | 56c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74bd…a397backed Under | 51c | 29.22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.32 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +32%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x117d…6542backed Under | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 564 | 54.3%306 W · 258 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Under | 50c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.38 | 938 | 49.7%466 W · 472 L | +36.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Over | 45c | 22.73$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6637…6700backed Under | 57c | 22.19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.54 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46a0…f721backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x170c…7fe3backed Under | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 380 | 48.7%185 W · 195 L | -12.0wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Nets vs. Wizards: O/U 226.5this page
- 1H Spread: Nets (-0.5)Wizards won
- 1H Spread: Wizards (-1.5)Wizards won
- 1H Spread: Wizards (-2.5)Wizards won
- Nets vs. WizardsWizards won
- Nets vs. Wizards: 1H MoneylineWizards won
- Nets vs. Wizards: 1H O/U 115.5Under won
- Nets vs. Wizards: 1H O/U 116.5Under won
- Nets vs. Wizards: O/U 223.5Under won
- Nets vs. Wizards: O/U 224.5Under won
- Nets vs. Wizards: O/U 225.5Under won
- Spread: Nets (-1.5)Wizards won
- Spread: Wizards (-3.5)Wizards won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.