TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x6f1e…7834

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
67
Categories scored
11
Categories below 50
4

Best Category: Token Launches, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category Token Launches at 54 out of 100; worst NHL at 44.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NBA Inactivelast resolved Apr 15, 2026, EDT1656.3%9 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
NBA — the 16 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Portland Trail Blazers make the NBA Playoffs?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.72
Will the Atlanta Hawks make the NBA Playoffs?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.72
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win more than 35.5 regular season games in 2025–26?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$37.4
Lakers vs. Kings: O/U 230.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$97Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST-100%-$97.3
76ers vs. Raptors: O/U 220.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST+96.1%+$17.15
Celtics vs. Pacersbacked Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST+92.3%+$24
Jazz vs. Cavaliers: O/U 251.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST+81.8%+$14.4
Jazz vs. Cavaliersbacked Jazz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$148Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST+35.1%+$52
Spurs vs. Pacers: O/U 236.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST-100%-$13.21
Nuggets vs. Cavaliers: O/U 236.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 2, 2026, EST+60.8%+$20.8
Nets vs. Wizards: O/U 226.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 2, 2026, EST-100%-$16.8
Spread: Thunder (-7.5)backed Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$68Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 24, 2025, EST+85.2%+$57.5
Spread: Timberwolves (-8.5)backed Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 24, 2025, EST-100%-$19.04
Heat vs. Celticsbacked Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 19, 2025, EST+81.8%+$14.85
Knicks vs. Celticsbacked Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$557Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 3, 2025, EST+100%+$556.94
Clippers vs. Magicbacked Magic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 20, 2025, EST+44.9%+$17.05
All 16 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Dec 16, 2025, EST1330.8%4 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick27cpaid-28.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Tweets — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 16, 2025, EST+267.2%+$41.49
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 16, 2025, EST-100%-$28.8
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$115Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 16, 2025, EST-100%-$115.37
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$62Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 15, 2025, EST-100%-$61.71
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST-100%-$10.12
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$126Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST-100%-$126.26
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST-100%-$24.2
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$230Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST+91.7%+$210.44
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST-100%-$30.8
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from November 28 to December 5, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$168Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 5, 2025, EST-100%-$168
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from November 28 to December 5, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$177Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 5, 2025, EST+126%+$223
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from November 28 to December 5, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 5, 2025, EST-100%-$40
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from November 14 to November 21, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$1,443Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 21, 2025, EST+47.4%+$684.81
All 13 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Apr 16, 2026, EDT1338.5%5 W · 8 L-2.0wins-0.15per pick53cpaid-31.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
NHL — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the Pacific Division?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$26
Maple Leafs vs. Avalanchebacked Avalanche · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$517Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST-100%-$516.73
Stars vs. Kingsbacked Kings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST-100%-$48
Oilers vs. Blackhawksbacked Blackhawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST-100%-$18
Devils vs. Wildbacked Wild · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST-100%-$35.88
Hurricanes vs. Red Wingsbacked Red Wings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST+92.3%+$28.8
Canucks vs. Canadiensbacked Canadiens · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST+61.3%+$20.9
Lightning vs. Flyersbacked Lightning · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST+66.7%+$12
Panthers vs. Sabresbacked Sabres · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST-100%-$18.36
Kraken vs. Rangersbacked Rangers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST-100%-$17.82
Wild vs. Blue Jacketsbacked Wild · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$725Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 19, 2025, EST+88.7%+$643.32
Senators vs. Ducksbacked Ducks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 21, 2025, EST-100%-$100
Stars vs. Canucksbacked Stars · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 21, 2025, EST+85.2%+$42.59
All 13 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Jan 15, 2026, EST850%4 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+59.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tennis Inactivelast resolved Jan 13, 2026, EST757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick49cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Tennis — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

College Football Inactivelast resolved Jan 3, 2026, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-38.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
College Football — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in College Football, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Wake Forest vs. Mississippi Statebacked Mississippi State · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST-100%-$16.1
Arizona vs. SMU Mustangs: O/U 55.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$191Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST+85.8%+$164.01
Arizona vs. SMU Mustangsbacked Arizona · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST-100%-$18
All 3 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Dec 23, 2025, EST250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+7.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NFL Inactivelast resolved Jan 13, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
NFL — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Texans vs. Steelersbacked Steelers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST-100%-$14.21
Bills vs. Texansbacked Bills · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 21, 2025, EST-100%-$35
All 2 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Nov 24, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Movies — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will "Wicked: For Good" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 150m and 163m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 24, 2025, EST+72.4%+$10.5
All 1 picks, newest first.
South American Leagues Inactivelast resolved Nov 20, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
South American Leagues — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in South American Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will SC Corinthians Paulista vs. São Paulo FC end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$46Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 20, 2025, EST+26.6%+$12.28
All 1 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Jan 6, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Premier League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Liam Rosenior be the next Chelsea manager?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST-100%-$18.63
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.