TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

ASB Classic: Mariano Navone vs Alex Michelsen

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Michelsenof Navone, Michelsen
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$162,510
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$179,452

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $162,510 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 168 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc9c8…44fbbacked Navone42c13,180$5,491 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,490.779826.5%26 W · 72 L-6.8wins-0.07per pick33cpaid-33%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6ad8…9bc1backed Navone2c11,002$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.513834.1%47 W · 91 L-8.2wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-42.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Navone27c8,774$2,343 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,342.62,86544.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L+6.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-20.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Navone15c7,925$1,172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,172.038,21745.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L+166.6wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-16.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcfbb…55b0backed Navone59c7,772$4,587 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,587.331656.3%9 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick64cpaid-18%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7daf…0ec8backed Michelsen75c3,333$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$833.2510043%43 W · 57 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+12.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x081e…f76ebacked Michelsen53c2,789$1,481 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,307.961,44648.8%706 W · 740 L-1.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec7a…a1f2backed Michelsen61c2,529$1,554 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$974.7614766.7%98 W · 49 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Navone10c2,265$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.82,74630.8%846 W · 1,900 L-67.1wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-36.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x21ca…3748backed Michelsen64c2,225$1,425 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$800.5836554.2%198 W · 167 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-8.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f13…e0fdbacked Navone25c2,047$512 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$511.8276140.6%309 W · 452 L-15.3wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf73d…80e7backed Michelsen70c2,040$1,421 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$618.391546.7%7 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.09per pick55cpaid-28.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0dd6…5f62backed Michelsen59c2,000$1,177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$822.8245457.9%263 W · 191 L-14.2wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf353…b287backed Navone6c1,333$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.988313.3%11 W · 72 L+4.9wins+0.06per pick7cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x972b…78babacked Navone40c1,217$493 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$492.672,98239.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L-109.1wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-30.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4411…985ebacked Michelsen78c1,173$915 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$257.272,14554.2%1,162 W · 983 L-1.6wins0.00per pick54cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb589…33d4backed Navone18c1,111$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.9810815.7%17 W · 91 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+248.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d42…f124backed Navone27c1,082$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$294.7317933%59 W · 120 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-9.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Navone25c1,052$267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$267.092,37551.1%1,213 W · 1,162 L+8.6wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9236…da58backed Michelsen58c1,045$606 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$439.393053.3%16 W · 14 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x908a…ad16backed Navone41c1,045$428 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$427.551,65550.1%829 W · 826 L+30.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Michelsen40c1,044$422 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$621.4611,43543.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L+17.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-20.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe85d…95d8backed Michelsen74c945.95$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$245.955860.3%35 W · 23 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-8.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe77f…8793backed Navone53c934.14$495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4952810.7%3 W · 25 L-5.8wins-0.21per pick32cpaid-75.5%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xf4a5…398fbacked Michelsen60c920.05$552 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$368.322972.4%21 W · 8 L+1.6wins+0.05per pick67cpaid+10%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Michelsen75c911.38$687 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$224.311,21841.1%500 W · 718 L-30.1wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-16%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8049…1e6cbacked Michelsen56c878.66$492 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$386.663033.3%10 W · 20 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-11.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a8e…b505backed Michelsen53c864.09$458 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$406.274461.4%27 W · 17 L+4.6wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+12.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Navone25c729.67$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.62,06834.9%721 W · 1,347 L-44.2wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-25.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Navone28c694$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.321,02833.6%345 W · 683 L-3.6wins0.00per pick34cpaid-5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae30…079ebacked Navone49c598.2$291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291.4141645.4%189 W · 227 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick47cpaid+3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc658…7dcebacked Navone53c577.99$308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$308.05258%2 W · 23 L-6.2wins-0.25per pick33cpaid-77%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0x6550…a8bbbacked Michelsen74c546$403 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.34366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick62cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a32…4a3cbacked Michelsen74c500$370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1301861.1%11 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick66cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa4d6…9357backed Navone63c472.44$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3005971.2%42 W · 17 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick67cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x46f1…7295backed Michelsen63c471.43$297 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174.4318663.4%118 W · 68 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick61cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc6e7…caa8backed Navone5c450$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.51085.6%6 W · 102 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick6cpaid-40.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa57…a128backed Michelsen60c365.6$221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.8519167%128 W · 63 L+5.1wins+0.03per pick64cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x68d2…92c8backed Michelsen62c364.96$226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.68837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.15per pick53cpaid-40.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x57d5…0bbdbacked Navone37c348.54$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.0827627.2%75 W · 201 L-25.2wins-0.09per pick36cpaid-36.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xb917…7ab1backed Michelsen53c337.47$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.473158.1%18 W · 13 L+1.7wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf2c6…4f3fbacked Michelsen52c332.25$173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.031100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+91.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb893…bf4bbacked Michelsen62c322.66$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.6663247.6%301 W · 331 L-15.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-5.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Michelsen66c310.84$206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.3288455%486 W · 398 L+37.4wins+0.04per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x176e…8f96backed Navone27c303.29$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.8917863.5%113 W · 65 L+6.2wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Michelsen73c300$219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$811,85244.5%825 W · 1,027 L-20.3wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-18.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1889…0714backed Navone25c280$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7018241.8%76 W · 106 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x20ba…6c27backed Michelsen69c276$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.561,18662.8%745 W · 441 L-16.1wins-0.01per pick64cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc181…0992backed Michelsen74c270.28$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.2865651.8%340 W · 316 L-0.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9086…4d46backed Michelsen38c263.2$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.21,84148.5%892 W · 949 L-32.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa6be…b977backed Navone23c259.12$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601,76843.2%764 W · 1,004 L+2.9wins0.00per pick43cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51ad…5e56backed Navone59c256.07$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.31,67153%885 W · 786 L+44.7wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Navone30c250$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.82,34351.6%1,209 W · 1,134 L+95.2wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+0.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Navone39c223.09$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.992,42647.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L+45.2wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-13.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeebf…3885backed Michelsen73c222.44$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.063253.1%17 W · 15 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-17.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4c16…a5e3backed Michelsen75c221.33$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.3338739.3%152 W · 235 L-0.1wins0.00per pick39cpaid+2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x977f…5a82backed Navone35c211.2$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.9210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe6f0…5701backed Navone10c200.63$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.0318644.6%83 W · 103 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa7f4…88e6backed Navone19c200$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$387021.4%15 W · 55 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick22cpaid-12%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xbe3c…a835backed Michelsen48c200$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10431255.4%173 W · 139 L+5.0wins+0.02per pick54cpaid0%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b4f…6678backed Michelsen51c196.08$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.08977.8%7 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick71cpaid+13%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa00f…8e56backed Michelsen69c193.61$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.616150.3%81 W · 80 L+6.4wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-11.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa178…11a2backed Navone11c185.25$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030750.5%155 W · 152 L-7.8wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-5.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Navone28c171.21$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.62,48945.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L-27.4wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-21.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf1dc…1068backed Navone32c162.93$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.643351.5%17 W · 16 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Navone42c156.37$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.897,01843.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L+124.9wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-9.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x61e4…9494backed Navone51c156.06$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0097…f101backed Navone26c154.46$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4021843.1%94 W · 124 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb227…7553backed Navone65c153.85$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1006445.3%29 W · 35 L-5.3wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-24.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa103…0d68backed Michelsen74c148.5$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.611100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9cd2…f9a6backed Michelsen74c145.91$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.949762.9%61 W · 36 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick66cpaid-8.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x985d…e14fbacked Navone27c141.89$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.774459.1%26 W · 18 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0a7e…c00abacked Michelsen37c135.14$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.145352.8%28 W · 25 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ca8…db1fbacked Navone37c133.76$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5012344.7%55 W · 68 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-10.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x064a…9c2fbacked Michelsen75c133.56$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.397664.5%49 W · 27 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick63cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xabbf…8a75backed Michelsen76c131.58$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.581100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3fb9…1591backed Navone38c121.76$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.714055%22 W · 18 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2db8…e042backed Michelsen75c120.23$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.0674961.8%463 W · 286 L-5.3wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8df0…96a6backed Navone33c119.42$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.715345.3%24 W · 29 L-6.0wins-0.11per pick57cpaid-25%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9bdb…a90dbacked Navone67c118.29$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.926921.2%57 W · 212 L-10.2wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-24.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf43d…1e75backed Navone16c117.64$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.681618.8%3 W · 13 L-2.5wins-0.16per pick35cpaid-59%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x76d3…7034backed Michelsen70c115.05$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.051172.7%8 W · 3 L+1.7wins+0.16per pick57cpaid+32%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x49a9…ea7ebacked Navone33c110.64$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.31250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-30.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6fe9…9c50backed Michelsen37c108.24$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.2425355.7%141 W · 112 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe7fc…1511backed Michelsen58c101.64$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.69933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-15.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6827…26fdbacked Michelsen44c100.03$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.025234.6%18 W · 34 L-2.7wins-0.05per pick40cpaid+0.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x83c8…26f0backed Navone19c100$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1913816.7%23 W · 115 L+7.6wins+0.06per pick11cpaid+46%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xecae…b906backed Michelsen73c99.98$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.991,02646.8%480 W · 546 L+14.1wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Navone15c95.64$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.531,37916.4%226 W · 1,153 L-108.5wins-0.08per pick24cpaid-49.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc837…2e91backed Michelsen74c90.45$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.552744.4%12 W · 15 L-5.6wins-0.21per pick65cpaid-32.9%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x58c5…deeebacked Navone56c89.31$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.951540%6 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-20.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb9fc…da76backed Michelsen72c84.33$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.6112450.8%63 W · 61 L+11.1wins+0.09per pick42cpaid+22.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x70ac…0c7dbacked Michelsen75c83.77$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.132,53753.6%1,361 W · 1,176 L+61.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-5.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x10f7…26f0backed Michelsen73c83$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.412254.5%12 W · 10 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-13.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1974…bc18backed Navone33c81.07$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.644351.2%22 W · 21 L0.0wins0.00per pick51cpaid-7.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x61bb…aca7backed Michelsen68c79.69$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.242458.3%14 W · 10 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+6.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x71d8…1053backed Michelsen37c78.42$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.071250%6 W · 6 L+1.5wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+23.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x22cc…8aeabacked Navone25c77.81$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.4513138.9%51 W · 80 L-5.8wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-17.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc383…c054backed Navone62c77.72$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.187057.1%40 W · 30 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick61cpaid-2.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa6cc…c4adbacked Navone32c76.15$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.04333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.26per pick59cpaid-57.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.