Tennis · resolved market
Australian Open Men's: Bernard Tomic vs Hugo Dellien
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x56322c2f9ebfc74b049b0ceab8e9520940c242107f83a3d96c8fe0f2e2775812
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Tomicof Tomic, Dellien
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,441
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,791
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,441 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Dellien | 1c | 4,166$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.44 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Dellien | 23c | 3,112$717 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$717.28 | 192 | 41.1%79 W · 113 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Dellien | 13c | 2,827$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.47 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2727…eef4backed Dellien | 11c | 2,200$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244 | 191 | 34%65 W · 126 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Dellien | 21c | 1,500$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315 | 72 | 26.4%19 W · 53 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc44f…d49fbacked Tomic | 79c | 1,400$1,106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5e…61b4backed Tomic | 79c | 759.58$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.58 | 374 | 44.1%165 W · 209 L | -7.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70ac…0c7dbacked Dellien | 13c | 542.04$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.03 | 2,537 | 53.6%1,361 W · 1,176 L | +61.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30ef…70dfbacked Dellien | 21c | 504.75$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.75 | 441 | 25.4%112 W · 329 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Tomic | 77c | 425.2$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.39 | 248 | 46%114 W · 134 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Dellien | 18c | 392.52$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.51 | 161 | 50.3%81 W · 80 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7bf…b02dbacked Tomic | 79c | 379.75$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.75 | 591 | 65.3%386 W · 205 L | -16.9wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Dellien | 7c | 299.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.64 | 459 | 9.6%44 W · 415 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…259dbacked Dellien | 23c | 250$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.5 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Dellien | 11c | 212.12$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.44 | 246 | 34.1%84 W · 162 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Dellien | 9c | 199.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.74 | 78 | 3.8%3 W · 75 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -55%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Dellien | 9c | 178.46$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.44 | 222 | 36.9%82 W · 140 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f1e…7834backed Dellien | 21c | 153.17$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.17 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc8…f45bbacked Dellien | 19c | 134.32$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 283 | 22.3%63 W · 220 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb740…2ec1backed Tomic | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 351 | 57%200 W · 151 L | -13.4wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd8…e7d4backed Tomic | 80c | 37.03$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.41 | 30 | 80%24 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 76cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3e6…6fd5backed Tomic | 78c | 23.08$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.08 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +47.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.