TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

College Football · resolved market

Wake Forest vs. Mississippi State

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Wake Forestof Wake Forest, Mississippi State
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,382,459
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,459,440

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,382,459 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 325 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in College Football
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa49b…4c40backed Wake Forest67c269,166$181,344 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87,821.967846.2%36 W · 42 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-14.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xe73e…74febacked Mississippi State58c129,299$74,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74,799.983951.3%20 W · 19 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa21…1438backed Mississippi State0c126,168$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.173357.6%19 W · 14 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd38b…5029backed Mississippi State58c125,479$72,202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72,201.632745.6%149 W · 178 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4059…3371backed Mississippi State0c100,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xafba…e61bbacked Wake Forest43c63,426$27,273 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36,152.643342.4%14 W · 19 L-2.7wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-17.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Mississippi State57c59,374$33,843 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33,842.9611851.7%61 W · 57 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Mississippi State14c54,211$7,773 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,773.1519842.9%85 W · 113 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-20.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Wake Forest42c50,938$21,509 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29,428.652449.4%259 W · 265 L-2.5wins0.00per pick50cpaid-4.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Mississippi State59c45,605$26,753 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26,753.111849.2%58 W · 60 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x43d4…13a2backed Mississippi State13c43,772$5,719 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,719.15750.9%29 W · 28 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+22.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Wake Forest51c38,789$19,697 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,091.5158850.2%295 W · 293 L+23.4wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Mississippi State30c33,594$10,058 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,057.9313933.1%46 W · 93 L-8.4wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-45%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Wake Forest42c33,584$14,170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,413.632152.4%11 W · 10 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Wake Forest42c21,322$9,039 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,282.9722750.7%115 W · 112 L+9.9wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+9.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Mississippi State58c21,228$12,214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,214.4238450.5%194 W · 190 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Mississippi State14c20,217$2,850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,849.71330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-51.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x528e…5c74backed Mississippi State7c20,006$1,401 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,400.69450%2 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.25per pick25cpaid+43%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x445e…9be0backed Mississippi State54c19,100$10,306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,306.1519849%97 W · 101 L-6.2wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-7.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Wake Forest41c17,500$7,175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,324.9452641.8%220 W · 306 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Mississippi State18c17,003$2,997 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,996.614841.7%20 W · 28 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-28.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Mississippi State23c15,325$3,515 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,514.6862843.6%274 W · 354 L+7.4wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-14.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Wake Forest46c13,207$6,081 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,125.6348546.8%227 W · 258 L-2.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-4.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Wake Forest65c12,213$7,884 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,329.0786243.7%377 W · 485 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e3a…4033backed Wake Forest43c11,635$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,635.3119362.2%120 W · 73 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Mississippi State16c10,587$1,675 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,675.3916234%55 W · 107 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-23.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x57a8…6933backed Mississippi State57c10,293$5,867 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,867.2826147.9%125 W · 136 L-0.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d1a…0df6backed Wake Forest42c10,000$4,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,799.995851.7%30 W · 28 L-0.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Mississippi State56c9,906$5,511 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,511.2293548.4%453 W · 482 L+11.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a7a…15a4backed Mississippi State53c9,482$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,0003855.3%21 W · 17 L+2.8wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+15.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1496…a429backed Mississippi State57c9,300$5,289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,288.6221055.2%116 W · 94 L+13.3wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+12.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xfbb3…d38ebacked Wake Forest61c9,062$5,522 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,540.061883.3%15 W · 3 L+4.4wins+0.25per pick59cpaid+57.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Wake Forest42c8,850$3,715 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,135.362,01349.6%999 W · 1,014 L+24.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe8a8…a48ebacked Mississippi State58c8,442$4,896 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,896.368236.6%30 W · 52 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-16.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Wake Forest42c7,550$3,204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,346.2629249%143 W · 149 L+0.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb889…a430backed Wake Forest63c7,127$4,490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,637.143857.9%22 W · 16 L+2.3wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+18%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x166a…e675backed Wake Forest70c6,856$4,796 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,060.36955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.6wins+0.18per pick38cpaid+93.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x21c2…6749backed Mississippi State30c6,688$2,030 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,030.071520%3 W · 12 L-1.8wins-0.12per pick32cpaid-58.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xadcb…337bbacked Wake Forest42c6,056$2,544 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,512.481100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+138.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7d5c…0182backed Mississippi State57c5,027$2,865 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,865.3914743.5%64 W · 83 L-5.9wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-12%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x89f3…dfffbacked Mississippi State11c4,827$548 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$547.989124.2%22 W · 69 L-5.6wins-0.06per pick30cpaid-48.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8366…21ebbacked Mississippi State50c4,813$2,390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,389.8683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.7wins+0.29per pick55cpaid+57.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6b9c…57b3backed Wake Forest74c4,710$3,491 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,219.261172.7%8 W · 3 L+1.9wins+0.17per pick55cpaid+46.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd95c…f1d7backed Wake Forest67c4,630$3,108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,521.77475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.21per pick54cpaid+44.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf9fe…366bbacked Wake Forest43c4,000$1,710 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,29015751%80 W · 77 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4487…1ec1backed Wake Forest80c3,800$3,040 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$760862.5%5 W · 3 L+2.1wins+0.26per pick37cpaid+109%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7cc1…fdc6backed Mississippi State59c3,750$2,213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,212.51741.2%7 W · 10 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick45cpaid+8.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Wake Forest42c3,563$1,496 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,066.5421644.9%97 W · 119 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-8.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb0e3…29ebbacked Wake Forest71c3,539$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,039.371060%6 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Wake Forest42c3,500$1,470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,0303844.7%17 W · 21 L0.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x56be…57eebacked Wake Forest63c3,357$2,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,256.85966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+18.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa369…d156backed Mississippi State31c3,266$1,001 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,001.39450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+24.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x344b…f7fcbacked Mississippi State28c2,838$801 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$800.591030%3 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick40cpaid-38%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xef45…1905backed Wake Forest59c2,770$1,622 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,148.12366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick49cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2eed…85a9backed Wake Forest63c2,698$1,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$998.41757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick61cpaid-17.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf1ef…8cd6backed Mississippi State58c2,500$1,450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,4502458.3%14 W · 10 L+1.7wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+16.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Mississippi State58c2,500$1,450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,4509051.1%46 W · 44 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Wake Forest58c2,430$1,410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,020.1540244.8%180 W · 222 L+1.6wins0.00per pick44cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc257…358ebacked Wake Forest42c2,355$989 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,366.152040%8 W · 12 L-1.8wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-17.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x98a3…d61ebacked Mississippi State32c2,220$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70010848.1%52 W · 56 L+0.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfaf1…795fbacked Wake Forest65c2,142$1,383 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$758.524100%4 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+46.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7e76…ef4ebacked Wake Forest63c2,051$1,292 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$758.741100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9cb3…0a77backed Mississippi State59c2,029$1,197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1972441.7%10 W · 14 L-3.3wins-0.14per pick55cpaid-25.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x24da…9561backed Wake Forest42c2,000$840 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,1601225%3 W · 9 L-2.0wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-36.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xed2c…9597backed Wake Forest42c2,000$840 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,159.991957.9%11 W · 8 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x24d8…e8a8backed Wake Forest53c1,861$992 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$869.171968.4%13 W · 6 L+3.9wins+0.20per pick48cpaid+24.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x9def…d1a5backed Wake Forest42c1,818$764 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,054.5812450.8%63 W · 61 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f11…837cbacked Wake Forest68c1,741$1,186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$554.672100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+45.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf2d9…0092backed Mississippi State56c1,667$935 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$935.012552%13 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick52cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf48c…e4dabacked Mississippi State20c1,631$323 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$322.79633.3%2 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick34cpaid-40.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe7a9…be15backed Mississippi State31c1,592$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick37cpaid-6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x15f9…607ebacked Mississippi State58c1,562$899 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$899933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-41%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8021…0da8backed Wake Forest43c1,364$591 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$773.01757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x67e3…e5b3backed Mississippi State24c1,318$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3105127.5%14 W · 37 L0.0wins0.00per pick28cpaid-21.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad18…0b4fbacked Mississippi State12c1,314$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1636233.9%21 W · 41 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-4.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd7b6…31e9backed Wake Forest62c1,293$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$493.191172.7%8 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.13per pick59cpaid+19.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x59b6…307fbacked Wake Forest69c1,271$880 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$390.673372.7%24 W · 9 L+3.2wins+0.10per pick63cpaid+12.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3cc5…5fcbbacked Mississippi State15c1,231$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.38425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick18cpaid-35.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa82b…5220backed Wake Forest59c1,224$723 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$500.092166.7%14 W · 7 L+3.5wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+28.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf2c2…4de7backed Wake Forest42c1,200$504 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69615734.4%54 W · 103 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-6.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x57b9…e9b4backed Mississippi State59c1,195$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7005149%25 W · 26 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x266b…8da2backed Wake Forest43c1,163$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$662.79650%3 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+15.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcacf…35ffbacked Mississippi State2c1,150$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.5790%0 W · 79 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8fa9…cf22backed Mississippi State59c1,140$673 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$672.620%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x80ee…5cf0backed Wake Forest67c1,135$756 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$379.1666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+14.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x371a…34b0backed Mississippi State1c1,111$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.112370.8%2 W · 235 L-5.0wins-0.02per pick3cpaid-98.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf642…0c19backed Mississippi State35c1,096$387 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3875147.1%24 W · 27 L+4.9wins+0.10per pick37cpaid+22.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8a45…41f6backed Mississippi State42c1,090$460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4602540%10 W · 15 L-2.2wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-18.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3abf…b143backed Mississippi State43c1,080$465 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$465.061553.3%8 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-13.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e03…7f54backed Wake Forest42c1,039$436 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$602.651040%4 W · 6 L+1.8wins+0.18per pick22cpaid+44%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2862…b2ddbacked Wake Forest63c1,036$653 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$383.37445.9%34 W · 40 L+7.2wins+0.10per pick36cpaid+27.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5834…f0cbbacked Wake Forest64c1,000$640 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36011854.2%64 W · 54 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+11.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcd36…a8acbacked Wake Forest77c1,000$769 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$230.891154.5%6 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid+0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3d3…f2bcbacked Wake Forest42c1,000$420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5804639.1%18 W · 28 L-2.2wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-7.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Wake Forest42c1,000$420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58065945.2%298 W · 361 L-13.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x80cf…427dbacked Mississippi State59c1,000$590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59020%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x49e2…018dbacked Wake Forest43c939$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$538.993743.2%16 W · 21 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-16.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x20ae…f107backed Wake Forest37c861.08$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$541.081729.4%5 W · 12 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-14.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb8a0…35b6backed Mississippi State57c823.49$469 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$469.39771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.18per pick53cpaid+37.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3300…568bbacked Wake Forest65c823.45$535 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$288.21366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick67cpaid-7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.