TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x80ee…5cf0

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
59
Categories scored
8
Categories below 50
2

Best Category: Ncaa Basketball, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category Ncaa Basketball at 55 out of 100; worst Earnings at 48.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Mar 28, 2026, EDT2853.6%15 W · 13 L+2.5wins+0.09per pick44cpaid+4.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 28 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Iowa Hawkeyesbacked Iowa Hawkeyes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$64Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$63.96
St. John's Red Storm vs. Duke Blue Devilsbacked St. John's Red Storm · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$49.67
Will Virginia win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$121Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$121.47
Will Virginia win the 2026 ACC title?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$36
Will Virginia win the 2025-2026 ACC Men’s Basketball regular season championship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$64Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$63.65
Virginia Cavaliers vs. Boston College Eaglesbacked Virginia Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$2,221Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST+26.1%+$578.67
North Carolina Tar Heels vs. Virginia Cavaliersbacked Virginia Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$3,074Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2026, EST-100%-$3,073.77
North Carolina State Wolfpack vs. Pittsburgh Panthersbacked North Carolina State Wolfpack · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$339Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2026, EST+40.8%+$138.3
SMU Mustangs vs. Wake Forest Demon Deaconsbacked SMU Mustangs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$305Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2026, EST+67.3%+$205.42
North Carolina State Wolfpack vs. Clemson Tigersbacked North Carolina State Wolfpack · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$780Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2026, EST+77.2%+$601.83
American Eagles vs. Army Black Knightsbacked American Eagles · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$345Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST+44.9%+$155
Penn State Nittany Lions vs. Maryland Terrapinsbacked Maryland Terrapins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$104Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST+92.3%+$96
Virginia Cavaliers vs. SMU Mustangsbacked Virginia Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$875Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST+107.7%+$942.06
James Madison Dukes vs. Appalachian State Mountaineersbacked James Madison Dukes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$135Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 15, 2026, EST-100%-$135
Ole Miss Rebels vs. Georgia Bulldogsbacked Ole Miss Rebels · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$104Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 15, 2026, EST+284.6%+$296
Iowa Hawkeyes vs. Purdue Boilermakersbacked Purdue Boilermakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$505Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 14, 2026, EST+86%+$434.16
Virginia Cavaliers vs. Louisville Cardinalsbacked Virginia Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$498Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST+104.2%+$519.46
Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Washington Huskiesbacked Ohio State Buckeyes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST-100%-$26
Cincinnati Bearcats vs. UCF Knightsbacked UCF Knights · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$47Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST+112.8%+$53
BYU Cougars vs. Utah Utesbacked Utah Utes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST-100%-$32
Texas Longhorns vs. Alabama Crimson Tidebacked Texas Longhorns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$170Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST+129.1%+$218.87
Iowa Hawkeyes vs. Minnesota Golden Gophersbacked Iowa Hawkeyes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 7, 2026, EST-100%-$37.9
Duke Blue Devils vs. Louisville Cardinalsbacked Duke Blue Devils · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$273Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST+135.9%+$371.3
Virginia Tech Hokies vs. Wake Forest Demon Deaconsbacked Virginia Tech Hokies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST-100%-$12.49
Virginia Cavaliers vs. Virginia Tech Hokiesbacked Virginia Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$653Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$653.26
Showing 25 of 28 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT2045%9 W · 11 L+0.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-4.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 20 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$840Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$840.4
Will USD.AI launch a token by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$1,357Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,357.15
Zama FDV above $600M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$696Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$696.29
Zama auction clearing price above $0.06?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$254Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 26, 2026, EST-100%-$254.01
Zama auction clearing price above $0.04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$320Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 26, 2026, EST+25%+$80
Zama auction clearing price above $0.05?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$291Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 26, 2026, EST-100%-$291
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$526Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 2, 2026, EST+33.1%+$174
Lighter FDV above $3B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$2,073Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST+37.5%+$777.82
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$898Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$898.49
Lighter Airdrop on December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST-100%-$21.6
Lighter Airdrop on December 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST-100%-$12.72
Lighter Airdrop on December 29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$120Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST-100%-$119.94
Over 20,000 ETH committed to the Aztec public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$792Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 6, 2025, EST+26.6%+$210.68
Will the Monad public sale commitments be less than $400M?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$655Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 23, 2025, EST+66.5%+$435.4
Will the Monad public sale commitments be between $400M and $600M?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 23, 2025, EST-100%-$46
Over $300M committed to the Monad public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2025, EST+488.2%+$83
Over $275M committed to the Monad public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2025, EST-100%-$12.9
Over $600M committed to the Monad public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$304Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2025, EST+31.6%+$96
Over $400M committed to the Monad public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$132Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2025, EST+127.3%+$168
Over $250M committed to the Monad public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$113Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2025, EST+178.8%+$202.57
All 20 picks, newest first.
College Football Inactivelast resolved Jan 20, 2026, EST666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+14.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
College Football — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in College Football, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Miami vs. Indianabacked Indiana · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$1,668Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST+37.9%+$631.99
Miami vs. Ole Missbacked Ole Miss · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$106Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 9, 2026, EST-100%-$106
Wake Forest vs. Mississippi Statebacked Wake Forest · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$756Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST+50.2%+$379.1
Virginia vs. Missouribacked Virginia · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$76Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2025, EST+163.2%+$124
Duke vs. Virginiabacked Virginia · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$125Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$124.99
Virginia Tech vs. Virginiabacked Virginia · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 30, 2025, EST+33.3%+$100
All 6 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Jan 13, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.77per pick23cpaid+329.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Weather — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will 1550 to 1599 tornadoes occur in the United States in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$72Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST+329.2%+$237
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Nov 28, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Ukraine agrees to US-approved peace plan by Thursday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 28, 2025, EST+29.9%+$5
All 1 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jan 15, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$240Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 15, 2026, EST+25%+$60
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$72Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$72
All 1 picks, newest first.
Earnings Inactivelast resolved Nov 26, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Earnings — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Earnings, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Dell say "Nvidia" 5+ times during earnings call?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$92Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 26, 2025, EST-100%-$91.61
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.