Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
James Madison Dukes vs. Appalachian State Mountaineers
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4e7cdee378ecee40b285a84955ce4654192cb60da81259c4ab5f7b2da335e8dd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Appalachian State Mountaineersof James Madison Dukes, Appalachian State Mountaineers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,200
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,629
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,200 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcdb8…abbebacked James Madison Dukes | 22c | 1,553$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.64 | 1,983 | 26.4%523 W · 1,460 L | -55.5wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed2c…9597backed James Madison Dukes | 44c | 1,505$662 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$662.27 | 397 | 44.8%178 W · 219 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Appalachian State Mountaineers | 56c | 728$406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.32 | 2,579 | 47.3%1,221 W · 1,358 L | -42.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Appalachian State Mountaineers | 56c | 630.36$353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.36 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28b4…a506backed James Madison Dukes | 22c | 568.56$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed James Madison Dukes | 35c | 521.24$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.43 | 2,555 | 41.6%1,062 W · 1,493 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Appalachian State Mountaineers | 78c | 519.47$406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.06 | 2,124 | 50.4%1,070 W · 1,054 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5165…175bbacked Appalachian State Mountaineers | 65c | 500$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175 | 98 | 49%48 W · 50 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Appalachian State Mountaineers | 79c | 417.19$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.96 | 1,887 | 45.2%853 W · 1,034 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80ee…5cf0backed James Madison Dukes | 45c | 300$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked James Madison Dukes | 6c | 228.73$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c07…aeb0backed Appalachian State Mountaineers | 78c | 190$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.8 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…6749backed Appalachian State Mountaineers | 75c | 183$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.54 | 497 | 47.5%236 W · 261 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Appalachian State Mountaineers | 73c | 181.61$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.2 | 1,540 | 41.3%636 W · 904 L | +4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a8…1b66backed Appalachian State Mountaineers | 56c | 177.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.18 | 210 | 50%105 W · 105 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b4f…6678backed Appalachian State Mountaineers | 78c | 128.7$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.7 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 70cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked James Madison Dukes | 31c | 124.54$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.77 | 4,848 | 52.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L | +139.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3817…7d10backed Appalachian State Mountaineers | 55c | 118.41$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.28 | 298 | 45.3%135 W · 163 L | -8.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Appalachian State Mountaineers | 77c | 117.62$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.18 | 1,493 | 48.7%727 W · 766 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Appalachian State Mountaineers | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 891 | 46.2%412 W · 479 L | +9.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed James Madison Dukes | 35c | 93.91$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.87 | 735 | 49.1%361 W · 374 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Appalachian State Mountaineers | 65c | 68.25$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.8 | 3,380 | 49.5%1,673 W · 1,707 L | +30.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68af…4b9bbacked James Madison Dukes | 47c | 52.68$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.76 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c34…c8b8backed James Madison Dukes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 143 | 39.9%57 W · 86 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Appalachian State Mountaineers | 56c | 49.45$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.76 | 4,552 | 50.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L | -36.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed James Madison Dukes | 27c | 46.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 668 | 31.4%210 W · 458 L | -43.1wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -23%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x868d…b425backed James Madison Dukes | 45c | 25.84$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +2.5wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6bcf…23fabacked Appalachian State Mountaineers | 55c | 25.84$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.63 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc728…42efbacked James Madison Dukes | 45c | 25.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +3.6wins | +0.16per pick | 54cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x319d…6f66backed Appalachian State Mountaineers | 55c | 25.01$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70fa…07f3backed Appalachian State Mountaineers | 73c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.77 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf79a…56c2backed Appalachian State Mountaineers | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 222 | 50.9%113 W · 109 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- James Madison Dukes vs. Appalachian State Mountaineersthis page
- James Madison Dukes vs. Appalachian State Mountaineers: O/U 133.5Over won
- James Madison Dukes vs. Appalachian State Mountaineers: O/U 134.5Over won
- James Madison Dukes vs. Appalachian State Mountaineers: O/U 135.5Over won
- Spread: Appalachian State Mountaineers (-1.5)Appalachian State Mountaineers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.