Token Launches · resolved market
Will the Monad public sale commitments be between $400M and $600M?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf79cf17ad3ca6702858521952952bcdfb5b4aeb8c809ecfd37237c14d4182bce
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $237,377
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $189,642
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $237,377 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 170 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe270…10b5backed Yes | 24c | 33,433$8,139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,139.27 | 66 | 34.8%23 W · 43 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb45…b5d6backed Yes | 0c | 24,153$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.31 | 55 | 7.3%4 W · 51 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -76.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a63…4fc1backed No | 64c | 12,479$7,987 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,492.57 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +95.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd7d8…19e6backed Yes | 5c | 7,850$414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$413.55 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 23cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6590…3a26backed Yes | 0c | 7,500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x243c…2240backed Yes | 35c | 7,348$2,572 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,572.11 | 69 | 37.7%26 W · 43 L | +8.0wins | +0.12per pick | 26cpaid | +87.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb637…4c42backed No | 70c | 5,329$3,741 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,587.78 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 4,945$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.48 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c67…21eebacked Yes | 48c | 4,826$2,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,300 | 34 | 11.8%4 W · 30 L | -3.7wins | -0.11per pick | 23cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x16bd…e288backed Yes | 9c | 4,821$445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$445.2 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +3.8wins | +0.19per pick | 21cpaid | +76.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9d6c…e400backed Yes | 12c | 4,174$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498.65 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d7…eaf2backed Yes | 12c | 3,412$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397.32 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | +307.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaab…e6f2backed Yes | 34c | 3,000$1,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,019.99 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 77c | 2,498$1,934 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$564.27 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +3.5wins | +0.25per pick | 61cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x478d…9ea9backed Yes | 41c | 2,190$902 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$902 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7707…4fcbbacked Yes | 16c | 2,110$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b60…5c8dbacked Yes | 8c | 2,064$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8797…bbbebacked Yes | 21c | 1,932$406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405.8 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 31cpaid | +87.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5819…21f2backed Yes | 11c | 1,817$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.11 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +47.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bf1…44f5backed Yes | 4c | 1,608$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.92 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea68…ff92backed Yes | 38c | 1,600$608 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$608 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 65cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3875…1fd2backed Yes | 37c | 1,339$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -2.9wins | -0.13per pick | 32cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x599a…c212backed No | 67c | 1,239$833 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$406 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e81…5d10backed Yes | 4c | 1,200$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c41…133ebacked Yes | 37c | 1,193$446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$445.69 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 31cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd8…5685backed Yes | 4c | 1,176$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.16 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 74c | 1,088$808 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.06 | 64 | 31.3%20 W · 44 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe211…30b4backed No | 65c | 1,071$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370.55 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64ec…9f79backed Yes | 36c | 1,009$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.07 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.8wins | +0.28per pick | 42cpaid | +147.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x84c0…52a2backed Yes | 7c | 1,005$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.03 | 36 | 5.6%2 W · 34 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd8…a74abacked Yes | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 75 | 14.7%11 W · 64 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdce3…82f1backed Yes | 7c | 999.97$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +257.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc91…1a88backed Yes | 37c | 958.45$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.53 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 15c | 945.69$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.56 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…a70cbacked Yes | 32c | 942.19$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7af6…83cabacked No | 76c | 851$643 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.6 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7e6…4f99backed Yes | 37c | 818.95$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 8c | 812.36$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.55 | 110 | 7.3%8 W · 102 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 74c | 803.33$591 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.96 | 193 | 36.3%70 W · 123 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe21…479fbacked Yes | 27c | 756.75$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.4 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x502b…a1d5backed Yes | 13c | 749.96$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.49 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 23c | 745.85$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.48 | 357 | 12.9%46 W · 311 L | -29.9wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaafe…4180backed Yes | 14c | 722.1$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.09 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83a2…9452backed Yes | 30c | 660$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.55 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a6…e5dbbacked Yes | 43c | 639.01$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.16 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3d7d…ec26backed Yes | 32c | 633.32$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.53 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb430…0448backed Yes | 9c | 629$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.48 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -84.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x179a…d3e7backed Yes | 40c | 600$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1dc…5460backed Yes | 24c | 552.91$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.35 | 83 | 38.6%32 W · 51 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ea1…327abacked No | 66c | 529.99$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.49 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 68cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa33…372ebacked Yes | 44c | 519.16$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.22 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc56e…453cbacked Yes | 4c | 513.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40ac…ee4bbacked No | 63c | 505.93$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.31 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe32d…0460backed Yes | 10c | 501$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 20cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc28a…0b8fbacked Yes | 8c | 500$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd3…4191backed No | 60c | 500$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199 | 72 | 31.9%23 W · 49 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked No | 66c | 499.99$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe397…bfcbbacked Yes | 36c | 499.98$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.99 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | -4.7wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x424a…1b92backed No | 54c | 495.57$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.83 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ea5…3fdabacked Yes | 21c | 477.26$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.79 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +4.6wins | +0.16per pick | 29cpaid | +61.7%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 32c | 454.81$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.05 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb93b…454bbacked Yes | 26c | 441.67$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x125d…0041backed Yes | 9c | 422.07$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.08 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | +74.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc456…8996backed Yes | 17c | 417.97$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.45 | 195 | 43.1%84 W · 111 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b26…57e9backed Yes | 38c | 414.65$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.86 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 60cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x10ea…4cbcbacked No | 66c | 400$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6115…97ddbacked Yes | 42c | 400$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +145.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a14…045cbacked Yes | 10c | 399.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +3.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c4c…a5f0backed Yes | 35c | 397.25$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.46 | 91 | 42.9%39 W · 52 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa24f…6c63backed No | 75c | 396.94$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.93 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbabd…f4d2backed Yes | 4c | 394.07$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -54%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7529…5cd7backed Yes | 24c | 375.5$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.06 | 45 | 26.7%12 W · 33 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…aeedbacked No | 62c | 370$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.1 | 54 | 61.1%33 W · 21 L | +4.9wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +22%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f6…f699backed Yes | 17c | 366.49$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.27 | 238 | 41.2%98 W · 140 L | +25.1wins | +0.11per pick | 31cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf3…6330backed Yes | 3c | 341.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 66c | 336.33$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.06 | 333 | 29.7%99 W · 234 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f82…2d74backed Yes | 29c | 336.21$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.05 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…97f4backed Yes | 17c | 323.2$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.94 | 109 | 48.6%53 W · 56 L | +11.9wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +54%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc829…cad3backed Yes | 34c | 322.97$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebac…be55backed No | 66c | 304.55$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.55 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e9…63d0backed No | 70c | 301.81$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.54 | 178 | 59.6%106 W · 72 L | +18.3wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +21%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0ad9…410abacked No | 68c | 300$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f0a…4618backed Yes | 35c | 300$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd538…cc31backed Yes | 53c | 300$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02e4…f71cbacked Yes | 25c | 299.99$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.18per pick | 37cpaid | +84.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Yes | 16c | 296.98$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.52 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ef5…5380backed Yes | 34c | 296.73$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa042…3dccbacked Yes | 35c | 285.71$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf20a…e71abacked No | 72c | 277.78$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.78 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6680…c738backed Yes | 15c | 266.6$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.99 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb042…14f3backed No | 71c | 259.5$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.26 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 63cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a8fdbacked No | 71c | 259.5$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.26 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d23…9eb4backed Yes | 39c | 256.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fed…d914backed Yes | 15c | 256$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.17per pick | 41cpaid | +103.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6797…42fbbacked Yes | 53c | 250$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.5 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.7wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +61%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed Yes | 6c | 249.11$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d27…62cabacked Yes | 18c | 243.52$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.07 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd21…5b8abacked Yes | 19c | 240.53$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed No | 71c | 232.03$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.6 | 156 | 37.2%58 W · 98 L | -5.6wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4dc9…3998backed Yes | 9c | 229.44$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Monad public sale commitments be between $400M and $600M?this page
- Will the Monad public sale commitments be between $1.2B and $1.4B?No won
- Will the Monad public sale commitments be between $1.4B and $1.6B?No won
- Will the Monad public sale commitments be between $1.6B and $1.8B?No won
- Will the Monad public sale commitments be between $1.8B and $2B?No won
- Will the Monad public sale commitments be between $1B and $1.2?No won
- Will the Monad public sale commitments be between $600M and $800M?No won
- Will the Monad public sale commitments be between $800M and $1B?No won
- Will the Monad public sale commitments be greater than $2B?No won
- Will the Monad public sale commitments be less than $400M?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.