Token Launches · resolved market
Will the Monad public sale commitments be less than $400M?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd998bcf4a4a9e4f992dc63c6d01f0748f5c0394d6c434e29b72b667b17fe8609
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $619,512
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $664,406
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $619,512 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 242 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1070…9124backed No | 6c | 33,000$2,010 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,009.98 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +3.5wins | +0.25per pick | 11cpaid | +737.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdb45…b5d6backed No | 11c | 31,230$3,361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,361.36 | 55 | 7.3%4 W · 51 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -76.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2171…924bbacked No | 11c | 19,760$2,126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,125.99 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a4…8178backed No | 20c | 14,431$2,899 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,899.34 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x037b…47f4backed No | 16c | 14,001$2,260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,260 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -80.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x243c…2240backed Yes | 43c | 10,352$4,457 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,895.56 | 69 | 37.7%26 W · 43 L | +8.0wins | +0.12per pick | 26cpaid | +87.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6df5…6430backed No | 9c | 8,500$760 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$760 | 61 | 16.4%10 W · 51 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +95.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa440…a2d1backed No | 6c | 7,696$449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$448.66 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc483…8ac8backed Yes | 19c | 7,000$1,362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,638.14 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | +5.2wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecd…0787backed No | 1c | 7,000$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.93 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e9…63d0backed No | 77c | 6,670$5,105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,105.1 | 178 | 59.6%106 W · 72 L | +18.3wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +21%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0805…31c0backed No | 8c | 6,592$515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$514.72 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -46%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8a0…2c5abacked Yes | 80c | 6,308$5,046 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,261.55 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a63…4fc1backed Yes | 38c | 6,000$2,280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,719.73 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +95.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e81…5d10backed No | 4c | 5,400$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb637…4c42backed Yes | 39c | 5,267$2,067 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,199.87 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeac2…176dbacked No | 54c | 5,172$2,792 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,792.41 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x05d1…2bb3backed No | 62c | 5,000$3,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,100 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a26…1851backed Yes | 50c | 4,381$2,187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,193.93 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57e4…835ebacked Yes | 12c | 4,320$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,819.74 | 77 | 59.7%46 W · 31 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 34c | 4,253$1,452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,451.95 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +3.5wins | +0.25per pick | 61cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd265…82afbacked Yes | 54c | 3,782$2,047 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,735.31 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5bd…7e75backed No | 6c | 3,720$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf91b…7f5fbacked Yes | 49c | 3,694$1,827 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,867.4 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 3c | 3,568$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.73 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2e7…40c2backed Yes | 24c | 3,298$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,498.81 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.22per pick | 42cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f6…f699backed Yes | 10c | 3,169$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,850.38 | 238 | 41.2%98 W · 140 L | +25.1wins | +0.11per pick | 31cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe270…10b5backed No | 60c | 3,076$1,850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,850.47 | 66 | 34.8%23 W · 43 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefb7…d7ecbacked No | 2c | 3,050$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.38 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.19per pick | 34cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2616…8d3cbacked Yes | 36c | 3,049$1,105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,944.48 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d7…eaf2backed No | 6c | 2,969$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.15 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | +307.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf89e…ad9bbacked Yes | 37c | 2,766$1,028 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,738.22 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.33per pick | 27cpaid | +110.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x429a…d58cbacked Yes | 42c | 2,527$1,069 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,457.92 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 2c | 2,500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 93 | 2.2%2 W · 91 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdce3…82f1backed No | 40c | 2,414$964 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$963.84 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +257.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 35c | 2,342$827 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$827.23 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0eb…6d57backed Yes | 58c | 2,338$1,367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$971.21 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +3.9wins | +0.20per pick | 43cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x081c…fa42backed Yes | 52c | 2,281$1,188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,093.24 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 23cpaid | -5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf965…2fcdbacked No | 78c | 2,175$1,686 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,686.34 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -3.1wins | -0.34per pick | 56cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…af4bbacked Yes | 12c | 2,153$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,898.38 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bec…0451backed No | 45c | 2,140$963 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$963 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…0434backed Yes | 14c | 2,094$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,794.02 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +3.7wins | +0.29per pick | 25cpaid | +148%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4b69…3c3cbacked Yes | 77c | 2,052$1,575 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$477.64 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2221…ec1bbacked Yes | 44c | 2,042$901 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,140.96 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ddc…a792backed Yes | 57c | 1,947$1,110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$837.35 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8797…bbbebacked Yes | 12c | 1,932$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,709.75 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 31cpaid | +87.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x297a…3c75backed Yes | 10c | 1,910$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,709.9 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +77.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b6c…f6aabacked Yes | 5c | 1,769$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,680.91 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +2.7wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +295.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ff…9708backed Yes | 49c | 1,766$866 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$899.93 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +5.2wins | +0.15per pick | 31cpaid | +88.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdb49…f128backed Yes | 35c | 1,763$620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,143.14 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.41per pick | 34cpaid | +184.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e5d…596ebacked No | 57c | 1,739$997 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$996.7 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64ec…9f79backed Yes | 13c | 1,631$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,415.6 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.8wins | +0.28per pick | 42cpaid | +147.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe842…17cebacked Yes | 44c | 1,599$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$899.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +128.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf25f…a9e9backed Yes | 27c | 1,498$405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,092.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a28…f71abacked Yes | 38c | 1,433$544 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$889.25 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb411…3ec3backed No | 64c | 1,329$857 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$856.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0670…2bf0backed No | 65c | 1,316$852 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$852.4 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -3.4wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3514…2a2dbacked No | 4c | 1,282$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f2…7027backed No | 65c | 1,214$785 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$785.41 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -4.1wins | -0.23per pick | 51cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9a9a…989abacked Yes | 54c | 1,163$623 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +86.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad0d…59bdbacked Yes | 43c | 1,159$501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$658.17 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +95%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd8…5685backed No | 4c | 1,113$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.5 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80ee…5cf0backed Yes | 60c | 1,090$655 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$435.4 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…97f4backed Yes | 14c | 1,089$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$937.42 | 109 | 48.6%53 W · 56 L | +11.9wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +54%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x731b…90dfbacked No | 38c | 1,088$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412.47 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa901…d418backed Yes | 48c | 1,066$513 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$553.18 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | -4.0wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8c…6657backed Yes | 56c | 1,032$581 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$451.14 | 93 | 52.7%49 W · 44 L | +9.5wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xad10…448ebacked No | 24c | 1,020$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.9 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd305…4e8bbacked Yes | 50c | 1,007$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$507 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6465…f8ddbacked No | 6c | 1,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…a70cbacked No | 61c | 990.01$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No | 2c | 950$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 237 | 7.2%17 W · 220 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc48e…7708backed Yes | 38c | 950$361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$589 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbe7…dcabbacked Yes | 45c | 940.49$423 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$517.61 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x392a…6cfdbacked Yes | 18c | 923.67$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$757.41 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x899d…e2c0backed No | 23c | 919.55$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.84 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed No | 43c | 911.55$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.31 | 156 | 37.2%58 W · 98 L | -5.6wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f08…ad05backed No | 4c | 910.26$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6113…2443backed Yes | 11c | 909.09$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$809.09 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 11cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bc3…73d1backed No | 11c | 900$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 103 | 40.8%42 W · 61 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7712…0c28backed Yes | 61c | 850$519 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.5 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfaab…e6f2backed Yes | 37c | 837.52$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$527.64 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee03…6edbbacked No | 12c | 793.31$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.2 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 30c | 773.26$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.42 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a46…0bebbacked No | 27c | 743.74$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.46 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -30%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e2d…4323backed No | 55c | 727.43$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.12 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedad…17b2backed Yes | 73c | 705.27$511 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.94 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…6efebacked No | 30c | 700$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed No | 36c | 699.6$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.9 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35e4…5bbcbacked Yes | 16c | 693.49$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$583.49 | 61 | 23%14 W · 47 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83a2…9452backed Yes | 27c | 680$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$496.2 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ca…d08bbacked No | 13c | 675.06$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.45 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4333…1f57backed No | 14c | 660.35$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.45 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff68…9baabacked No | 67c | 657.15$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440.29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67b3…189fbacked No | 7c | 651.15$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d5f…b380backed Yes | 46c | 610$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.08 | 81 | 27.2%22 W · 59 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc650…41e1backed Yes | 34c | 606.5$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400.29 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +102.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd61d…e267backed Yes | 80c | 600$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b26…cf9abacked Yes | 34c | 588.24$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.24 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb99d…1e6abacked Yes | 21c | 583.5$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$459.42 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Monad public sale commitments be less than $400M?this page
- Will the Monad public sale commitments be between $1.2B and $1.4B?No won
- Will the Monad public sale commitments be between $1.4B and $1.6B?No won
- Will the Monad public sale commitments be between $1.6B and $1.8B?No won
- Will the Monad public sale commitments be between $1.8B and $2B?No won
- Will the Monad public sale commitments be between $1B and $1.2?No won
- Will the Monad public sale commitments be between $400M and $600M?No won
- Will the Monad public sale commitments be between $600M and $800M?No won
- Will the Monad public sale commitments be between $800M and $1B?No won
- Will the Monad public sale commitments be greater than $2B?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.