Token Launches · resolved market
Will the Monad public sale commitments be between $600M and $800M?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfe5d444330095bc8891c56e4dc72ce49c67e73c32f1cc5a9cf530407b2efd9c7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $206,180
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $150,626
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $206,180 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 136 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdb45…b5d6backed Yes | 0c | 25,883$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.66 | 55 | 7.3%4 W · 51 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -76.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fea…d5bfbacked Yes | 75c | 16,615$12,484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,484.35 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 0c | 11,369$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.46 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6df5…6430backed Yes | 2c | 10,216$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.83 | 61 | 16.4%10 W · 51 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +95.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7d8…19e6backed Yes | 1c | 9,000$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 23cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x243c…2240backed Yes | 23c | 6,715$1,560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,559.76 | 69 | 37.7%26 W · 43 L | +8.0wins | +0.12per pick | 26cpaid | +87.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5e81…5d10backed Yes | 1c | 5,000$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe270…10b5backed Yes | 6c | 5,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 66 | 34.8%23 W · 43 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57e4…835ebacked No | 66c | 4,568$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,567.94 | 77 | 59.7%46 W · 31 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5172…0581backed No | 6c | 3,998$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,758.12 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 9cpaid | +371.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16bd…e288backed Yes | 12c | 3,273$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392.75 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +3.8wins | +0.19per pick | 21cpaid | +76.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2cde…5b98backed No | 6c | 2,666$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,506.04 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +5.8wins | +0.32per pick | 12cpaid | +985.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed No | 6c | 2,666$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,506.04 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 14cpaid | +99.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83a2…9452backed Yes | 32c | 2,660$855 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$855.11 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dea…3423backed Yes | 33c | 2,512$831 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$831.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc56e…453cbacked Yes | 1c | 2,389$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb430…0448backed Yes | 1c | 2,230$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.04 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -84.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8797…bbbebacked Yes | 29c | 2,226$652 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$651.54 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 31cpaid | +87.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d7…eaf2backed No | 2c | 2,022$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,981.61 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | +307.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56db…171cbacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 28 | 7.1%2 W · 26 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe32d…0460backed Yes | 2c | 2,000$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.12 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 20cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ec…646dbacked Yes | 5c | 1,972$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c67…21eebacked Yes | 26c | 1,950$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 34 | 11.8%4 W · 30 L | -3.7wins | -0.11per pick | 23cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd8…a74abacked Yes | 1c | 1,800$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.4 | 75 | 14.7%11 W · 64 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84c0…52a2backed Yes | 2c | 1,632$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.57 | 36 | 5.6%2 W · 34 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d7d…ec26backed Yes | 30c | 1,600$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 71c | 1,600$1,143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$457.5 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +3.5wins | +0.25per pick | 61cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x01dc…1839backed Yes | 22c | 1,548$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.57 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x037b…47f4backed Yes | 3c | 1,468$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -80.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ef5…5380backed Yes | 35c | 1,428$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.8 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbeac…7d99backed Yes | 15c | 1,322$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a2…4b66backed Yes | 1c | 1,302$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.22 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +2.7wins | +0.17per pick | 14cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x247b…6610backed Yes | 1c | 1,119$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd3…4191backed Yes | 16c | 1,100$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176 | 72 | 31.9%23 W · 49 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c5c…8b63backed Yes | 14c | 1,099$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x537c…9824backed Yes | 14c | 1,095$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78a2…292ebacked Yes | 14c | 1,057$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 28c | 1,037$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.6 | 64 | 31.3%20 W · 44 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 10c | 923.11$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.86 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17e6…6fcbbacked Yes | 31c | 755.93$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.99 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -57%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7529…5cd7backed Yes | 17c | 755.77$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.39 | 45 | 26.7%12 W · 33 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac10…69b1backed Yes | 5c | 749.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +98.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03f0…63e0backed No | 67c | 741.03$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.03 | 94 | 22.3%21 W · 73 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 5c | 725$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 237 | 7.2%17 W · 220 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x478d…9ea9backed Yes | 33c | 650$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.75 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 9c | 603.22$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.64 | 333 | 29.7%99 W · 234 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa24f…6c63backed No | 68c | 583.99$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.98 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 79c | 555.97$441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.39 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bc3…73d1backed No | 80c | 517.26$414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.45 | 103 | 40.8%42 W · 61 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8881…b21dbacked No | 66c | 504.57$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.4 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c29…b354backed No | 66c | 500$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7712…0c28backed Yes | 14c | 499.99$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85b9…906dbacked Yes | 15c | 496.6$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.49 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -68.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1917…4097backed Yes | 8c | 486.8$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77d1…24ffbacked Yes | 9c | 469.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.6 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 12c | 454.81$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.28 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b26…57e9backed Yes | 34c | 421.43$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.19 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 60cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x599a…c212backed No | 70c | 400$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c7d…d6ebbacked Yes | 25c | 399.97$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.99 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…97f4backed Yes | 24c | 376.27$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.3 | 109 | 48.6%53 W · 56 L | +11.9wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +54%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f6…f699backed Yes | 20c | 363.49$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.7 | 238 | 41.2%98 W · 140 L | +25.1wins | +0.11per pick | 31cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc534…b734backed No | 70c | 352.06$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.58 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe07f…8f3ebacked Yes | 17c | 350$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.5 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 17cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fb8…b90fbacked Yes | 29c | 344.83$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafce…c2f6backed Yes | 15c | 335$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.25 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -15%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x646b…5c3dbacked No | 74c | 326.59$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.45 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x392a…6cfdbacked Yes | 27c | 324.32$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.57 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7af6…83cabacked No | 69c | 316.42$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.54 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x125d…0041backed Yes | 8c | 315$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | +74.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca51…ca40backed No | 69c | 300$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 73cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc35…435dbacked Yes | 29c | 300$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 31cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86fe…025cbacked No | 69c | 300$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 73cpaid | +12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f0…58dfbacked No | 10c | 300$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +5.4wins | +0.45per pick | 14cpaid | +416.5%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x02e4…f71cbacked Yes | 20c | 300$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.18per pick | 37cpaid | +84.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe90f…0088backed Yes | 31c | 299.99$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +4.1wins | +0.22per pick | 20cpaid | +204.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f2…7027backed No | 75c | 297.06$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.62 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -4.1wins | -0.23per pick | 51cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Yes | 15c | 294$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.1 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a28…f71abacked Yes | 22c | 268.18$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.06 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fed…d914backed Yes | 15c | 256$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.17per pick | 41cpaid | +103.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc622…8f86backed Yes | 16c | 250$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8936…d010backed Yes | 17c | 209.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.4 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2c1…fa46backed Yes | 14c | 202$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.28 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xece2…0c61backed Yes | 17c | 200$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -48%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x714c…f68dbacked No | 64c | 200$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +65.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1dc…5460backed No | 68c | 200$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.6 | 83 | 38.6%32 W · 51 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57b0…76f4backed Yes | 35c | 200$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.7 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -3.3wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -61.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 26c | 197.48$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.67 | 357 | 12.9%46 W · 311 L | -29.9wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xce05…4080backed Yes | 16c | 196$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa842…e0a9backed No | 69c | 169.56$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.56 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5e…f21dbacked Yes | 36c | 160.96$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.95 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -39%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a8fdbacked No | 68c | 159.88$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.16 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b65…46bebacked No | 68c | 153.62$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.62 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94d8…37e6backed No | 64c | 150$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ca2…bfb0backed Yes | 32c | 137.5$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48f3…104fbacked No | 66c | 135.5$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.07 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +3.4wins | +0.18per pick | 24cpaid | +82.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 15c | 135.26$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.95 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb482…fbc7backed Yes | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x084f…8b8ebacked Yes | 31c | 130$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.3 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ff6…7c5cbacked No | 69c | 115.99$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.19 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.18per pick | 44cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbbc…2f0dbacked Yes | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Monad public sale commitments be between $600M and $800M?this page
- Will the Monad public sale commitments be between $1.2B and $1.4B?No won
- Will the Monad public sale commitments be between $1.4B and $1.6B?No won
- Will the Monad public sale commitments be between $1.6B and $1.8B?No won
- Will the Monad public sale commitments be between $1.8B and $2B?No won
- Will the Monad public sale commitments be between $1B and $1.2?No won
- Will the Monad public sale commitments be between $400M and $600M?No won
- Will the Monad public sale commitments be between $800M and $1B?No won
- Will the Monad public sale commitments be greater than $2B?No won
- Will the Monad public sale commitments be less than $400M?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.