Token Launches · resolved market
Will the Monad public sale commitments be between $1B and $1.2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc6f4c4245c6913f9abaa651ca71da5cce3b99f461634106684db0910b77df7cf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $123,652
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $93,189
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $123,652 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdb45…b5d6backed Yes | 0c | 32,075$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.04 | 55 | 7.3%4 W · 51 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -76.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe32d…0460backed Yes | 0c | 12,850$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.8 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 20cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd8…a74abacked Yes | 1c | 7,000$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 75 | 14.7%11 W · 64 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14ee…7537backed Yes | 10c | 5,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.79 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 15cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a2…4b66backed Yes | 1c | 2,719$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.76 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +2.7wins | +0.17per pick | 14cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x84c0…52a2backed Yes | 1c | 2,615$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.37 | 36 | 5.6%2 W · 34 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 2,389$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.02 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc23…8bc9backed Yes | 3c | 2,222$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.66 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 23cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 2c | 1,929$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.38 | 110 | 7.3%8 W · 102 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe270…10b5backed Yes | 2c | 1,767$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.7 | 66 | 34.8%23 W · 43 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ec…646dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,529$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 171 | 2.9%5 W · 166 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 2c | 1,008$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.07 | 35 | 11.4%4 W · 31 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | +50%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e45…ae93backed Yes | 13c | 999.99$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 4c | 999.1$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.72 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 2c | 875.41$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.58 | 57 | 3.5%2 W · 55 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f5…1757backed Yes | 7c | 759$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 21cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb45c…9cf5backed Yes | 3c | 712.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 57 | 45.6%26 W · 31 L | +5.9wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x94fc…e11fbacked Yes | 3c | 701.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 6cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 2c | 570.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 333 | 29.7%99 W · 234 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2171…924bbacked Yes | 6c | 565.09$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.53 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe07f…8f3ebacked Yes | 2c | 554.19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 17cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9373…9014backed Yes | 5c | 499.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | -2.5wins | -0.12per pick | 16cpaid | -88%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 2c | 454.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a6…e5dbbacked Yes | 9c | 252.68$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.95 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd596…4966backed Yes | 7c | 214$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa64…969dbacked Yes | 12c | 212.1$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.03 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +3.2wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7cbc…5196backed Yes | 13c | 200$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8936…d010backed Yes | 13c | 200$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.09 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3257…066bbacked Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc7c…c08ebacked Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7af6…83cabacked Yes | 8c | 130.82$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17a5…e00abacked Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -46%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 11c | 92$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 357 | 12.9%46 W · 311 L | -29.9wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf3b4…27f7backed Yes | 11c | 88$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Monad public sale commitments be between $1B and $1.2?this page
- Will the Monad public sale commitments be between $1.2B and $1.4B?No won
- Will the Monad public sale commitments be between $1.4B and $1.6B?No won
- Will the Monad public sale commitments be between $1.6B and $1.8B?No won
- Will the Monad public sale commitments be between $1.8B and $2B?No won
- Will the Monad public sale commitments be between $400M and $600M?No won
- Will the Monad public sale commitments be between $600M and $800M?No won
- Will the Monad public sale commitments be between $800M and $1B?No won
- Will the Monad public sale commitments be greater than $2B?No won
- Will the Monad public sale commitments be less than $400M?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.