Token Launches · resolved market
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfc6260666d020a912a87d9000eff5116d2adfb8c30aba543427a4c1f1411f1a0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,056,989
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,982,424
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,056,989 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 3,148 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7b0b…c3dfbacked Yes | 0c | 511,605$1,321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,320.59 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8133…3bb4backed Yes | 70c | 124,307$87,284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87,284.3 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9564…3a32backed No | 19c | 120,701$23,116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97,585.47 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…d434backed Yes | 40c | 118,160$47,476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47,476.48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0d8…68cabacked Yes | 79c | 99,000$78,560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78,559.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a1c…970abacked No | 47c | 97,003$45,431 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51,571.95 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x356a…bfeabacked No | 16c | 95,434$14,828 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80,606.06 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | +5.5wins | +0.12per pick | 19cpaid | +265%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeb67…d696backed Yes | 29c | 81,111$23,360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23,360.49 | 72 | 70.8%51 W · 21 L | +20.9wins | +0.29per pick | 42cpaid | +190%equal weight | 74+0.22 edge/pick |
| 0xc450…6b80backed No | 19c | 79,807$14,810 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64,997.13 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5822…33a4backed No | 20c | 78,606$15,494 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63,112.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.80per pick | 20cpaid | +407.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ee…9597backed No | 76c | 78,425$59,412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,013.35 | 162 | 47.5%77 W · 85 L | +13.9wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb0bf…9401backed Yes | 29c | 72,205$20,906 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,906.22 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9377…c4f7backed Yes | 36c | 60,000$21,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21,599.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9701…dd5fbacked No | 73c | 59,892$43,633 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,259.31 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +54.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe153…ba59backed No | 72c | 59,631$42,778 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,852.37 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +25%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc9…7552backed No | 67c | 54,489$36,553 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,935.99 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +4.6wins | +0.20per pick | 41cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x847b…1027backed Yes | 80c | 51,293$40,884 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40,883.79 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 77cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6305…9d0bbacked No | 16c | 48,870$7,910 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40,959.91 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | +7.5wins | +0.14per pick | 25cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xafdd…13c0backed No | 17c | 47,633$7,891 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39,741.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.83per pick | 17cpaid | +503.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x398d…c7c3backed No | 59c | 45,484$26,968 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,515.78 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -71.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x471b…b18fbacked Yes | 26c | 42,013$10,962 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,962.38 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…9573backed No | 77c | 41,251$31,812 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,438.52 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28c3…da06backed Yes | 74c | 40,338$29,702 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29,701.87 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x44e4…011cbacked Yes | 59c | 37,317$22,146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22,145.83 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -3.6wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3257…2f3bbacked No | 72c | 36,990$26,595 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,394.74 | 75 | 45.3%34 W · 41 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e5b…073bbacked No | 72c | 36,887$26,624 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,262.75 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed12…c018backed No | 71c | 36,860$26,290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,569.8 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb1b…efb5backed No | 39c | 36,523$14,104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22,419.56 | 56 | 57.1%32 W · 24 L | +11.4wins | +0.20per pick | 37cpaid | +74.3%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xdd2d…84e6backed No | 24c | 36,181$8,753 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27,428.34 | 72 | 40.3%29 W · 43 L | +6.8wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x11a7…2c03backed No | 79c | 36,135$28,662 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,472.38 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce1d…1b9bbacked Yes | 34c | 36,000$12,267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,267.47 | 100 | 45%45 W · 55 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1161…729abacked Yes | 48c | 33,930$16,332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,331.85 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +35%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x402e…5d12backed No | 57c | 32,352$18,441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,910.76 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -33%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93d1…1a38backed No | 14c | 32,138$4,599 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27,538.94 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 8cpaid | +74.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03c5…5592backed No | 24c | 31,493$7,496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23,996.57 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +177.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ef1…2619backed Yes | 72c | 30,779$22,067 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22,067.14 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…97f4backed No | 27c | 29,763$8,065 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21,697.73 | 109 | 48.6%53 W · 56 L | +11.9wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +54%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbadf…b7f9backed Yes | 0c | 29,590$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.59 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4ce…d70ebacked No | 79c | 27,726$21,992 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,733.61 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 76cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0537…5b0fbacked Yes | 28c | 26,623$7,550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,549.67 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac9b…d4c5backed No | 31c | 25,942$8,115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,827.16 | 128 | 40.6%52 W · 76 L | +13.8wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f6…f699backed No | 27c | 25,733$7,041 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,691.65 | 238 | 41.2%98 W · 140 L | +25.1wins | +0.11per pick | 31cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc512…1a89backed No | 72c | 25,478$18,468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,009.86 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5666…ef7bbacked Yes | 55c | 23,989$13,294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,293.83 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa772…b445backed No | 41c | 23,743$9,717 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,025.83 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9167…8c91backed No | 63c | 23,537$14,828 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,708.76 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +46%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26cf…c612backed Yes | 54c | 23,415$12,749 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,749.43 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7aaf…a31ebacked No | 14c | 23,322$3,172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,150.01 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +54%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60d1…0c8fbacked No | 38c | 23,295$8,870 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,425.14 | 155 | 39.4%61 W · 94 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1304…8bf1backed Yes | 79c | 23,170$18,290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,290.14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4902…7214backed No | 71c | 22,823$16,283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,539.47 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +47.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5117…8c4ebacked Yes | 21c | 22,787$4,741 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,741.22 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 31cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5026…dde1backed No | 22c | 22,736$5,068 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,668.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.78per pick | 22cpaid | +348.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3fe…4a24backed No | 16c | 22,666$3,707 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,959.42 | 125 | 28%35 W · 90 L | +7.4wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb41a…1935backed Yes | 17c | 22,315$3,778 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,778.39 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -2.9wins | -0.18per pick | 24cpaid | -91.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f2f…b226backed No | 66c | 21,818$14,392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,426.59 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadf4…997abacked No | 30c | 21,710$6,446 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,264.4 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd45…3dd4backed No | 17c | 20,930$3,498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,431.76 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +83.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca0…1616backed Yes | 24c | 20,909$4,998 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,997.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1714…cbb8backed Yes | 41c | 20,896$8,492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,492.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e9…63d0backed No | 57c | 20,449$11,752 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,696.53 | 178 | 59.6%106 W · 72 L | +18.3wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +21%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6789…ac37backed No | 74c | 20,171$14,927 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,244.47 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +5.7wins | +0.33per pick | 37cpaid | +698%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xaf82…17febacked Yes | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb04b…7128backed No | 57c | 19,911$11,340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,570.21 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16bd…e288backed No | 16c | 19,387$3,102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,285.17 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +3.8wins | +0.19per pick | 21cpaid | +76.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6bea…3ffbbacked Yes | 57c | 18,651$10,679 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,679.03 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc05…f600backed No | 14c | 18,576$2,510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,066.29 | 84 | 21.4%18 W · 66 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | +37%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14b0…8d0ebacked No | 37c | 18,512$6,893 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,619.28 | 141 | 41.8%59 W · 82 L | +8.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab78…fac0backed Yes | 12c | 17,940$2,146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,146.26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3402…9446backed No | 42c | 17,500$7,350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,150 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | +5.0wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x243c…2240backed No | 21c | 17,179$3,680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,499 | 69 | 37.7%26 W · 43 L | +8.0wins | +0.12per pick | 26cpaid | +87.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6a67…df6fbacked No | 17c | 17,000$2,820 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,179.99 | 48 | 16.7%8 W · 40 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab51…2473backed Yes | 10c | 16,854$1,656 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,656.45 | 134 | 22.4%30 W · 104 L | +12.7wins | +0.09per pick | 13cpaid | +175.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7c4c…a5f0backed No | 60c | 16,695$9,944 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,750.28 | 91 | 42.9%39 W · 52 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c1…0a4cbacked No | 16c | 16,660$2,722 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,938.02 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59c6…8332backed Yes | 32c | 16,475$5,241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,241.43 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +42.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76c9…1917backed No | 40c | 16,314$6,508 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,806.36 | 53 | 30.2%16 W · 37 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a47…740bbacked No | 13c | 16,312$2,124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,187.61 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +50.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc771…b18fbacked No | 57c | 15,888$9,132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,756.16 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc847…ef2cbacked No | 69c | 15,662$10,846 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,816.13 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -61.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b79…14c7backed No | 17c | 15,243$2,551 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,692.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.83per pick | 17cpaid | +497.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e5e…7315backed No | 36c | 15,000$5,350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,650 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0d3…13d7backed Yes | 17c | 14,982$2,579 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,578.73 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 20cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc85c…50d5backed No | 17c | 14,942$2,608 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,333.54 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.32per pick | 28cpaid | +107.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9def…d1a5backed Yes | 28c | 14,784$4,070 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,069.77 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2061…8ec9backed No | 55c | 14,777$8,126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,651.36 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.21per pick | 19cpaid | +73.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12d9…f992backed No | 55c | 14,531$8,010 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,521.03 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | +4.9wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb357…ff05backed No | 73c | 14,380$10,553 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,826.64 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a91…ac8fbacked No | 70c | 14,315$10,084 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,231.41 | 37 | 75.7%28 W · 9 L | +7.8wins | +0.21per pick | 55cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xf604…36b3backed No | 56c | 14,302$8,061 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,240.95 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -41%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc40…b43ebacked No | 78c | 14,153$11,090 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,063.63 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67fa…e90fbacked Yes | 62c | 14,039$8,734 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,734.41 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x826b…9c34backed No | 64c | 14,001$8,937 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,063.19 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +141.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2048…f572backed Yes | 62c | 13,937$8,574 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,574.03 | 90 | 46.7%42 W · 48 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe714…d510backed Yes | 32c | 13,929$4,444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,443.88 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3868…5683backed No | 18c | 13,817$2,551 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,266.41 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.34per pick | 26cpaid | +107.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad5…c5c5backed No | 71c | 13,650$9,755 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,895 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb2b…1921backed No | 53c | 13,561$7,222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,338.91 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +7.9wins | +0.16per pick | 42cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbb…3f66backed No | 64c | 13,422$8,621 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,801.91 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba45…87f3backed Yes | 26c | 13,234$3,439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,438.81 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?this page
- MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1.5B one day after launch?Yes won
- MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch?Yes won
- MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?No won
- MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?No won
- MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$600M one day after launch?Yes won
- MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch?No won
- MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$800M one day after launch?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.