Token Launches · resolved market
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdb68062324c27327e9cd4b21b1dd0deadbc4b860abb8c076b9ba3ed4652ced13
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,987,049
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,553,691
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,987,049 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 473 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 0c | 95,526$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.94 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca5…8727backed Yes | 15c | 76,150$11,604 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,603.96 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46ce…c842backed Yes | 2c | 47,641$776 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$776.14 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -62.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab51…2473backed Yes | 9c | 41,386$3,650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,650.26 | 134 | 22.4%30 W · 104 L | +12.7wins | +0.09per pick | 13cpaid | +175.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3bc3…3812backed Yes | 12c | 35,497$4,292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,291.77 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11ab…c8a7backed Yes | 17c | 35,186$5,942 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,942.15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 2c | 29,893$523 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$522.73 | 328 | 3%10 W · 318 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3127…60e7backed Yes | 13c | 28,823$3,791 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,790.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d0c…6b78backed Yes | 5c | 22,503$1,136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,136.43 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +2.6wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0213…f7e3backed Yes | 6c | 17,873$1,068 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,067.82 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +3.3wins | +0.13per pick | 30cpaid | +24%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ab…2790backed Yes | 22c | 17,550$3,861 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,861 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0bf…9401backed Yes | 10c | 15,882$1,576 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,576.17 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7171…7af9backed Yes | 1c | 15,023$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.62 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 4cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff04…d971backed Yes | 1c | 14,259$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.44 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +3.4wins | +0.24per pick | 11cpaid | +995.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 1c | 13,900$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.2 | 171 | 2.9%5 W · 166 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 13,181$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.89 | 206 | 1.9%4 W · 202 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +62.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3baa…1fd8backed Yes | 13c | 12,515$1,631 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,630.75 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.6wins | -0.20per pick | 35cpaid | -69.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 3c | 11,767$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392.48 | 28 | 10.7%3 W · 25 L | -3.4wins | -0.12per pick | 23cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xef76…0ec1backed Yes | 1c | 11,667$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 2c | 11,184$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.53 | 254 | 1.6%4 W · 250 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8d…8d2cbacked Yes | 1c | 11,040$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 2c | 10,655$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.75 | 244 | 2%5 W · 239 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x409f…543abacked Yes | 0c | 10,515$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x240f…2334backed Yes | 2c | 10,138$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.45 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2117…5c26backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbba…dbffbacked Yes | 2c | 10,000$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ded…1262backed Yes | 1c | 9,479$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8419…ed9dbacked Yes | 2c | 9,049$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac37…acc8backed Yes | 1c | 9,003$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x733f…d768backed Yes | 1c | 8,957$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13f6…d206backed Yes | 1c | 8,957$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd6d…5166backed Yes | 1c | 8,919$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1001…6438backed Yes | 2c | 8,758$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa45a…828abacked Yes | 1c | 8,671$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86a3…33dbbacked No | 78c | 7,729$6,023 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,705.1 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.4wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +215.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8db9…0a2abacked Yes | 2c | 7,540$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x486f…b325backed Yes | 1c | 7,504$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Yes | 16c | 7,457$1,227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,227.36 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef55…ece0backed Yes | 1c | 7,352$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8365…e9a6backed Yes | 12c | 6,588$791 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$790.51 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.16per pick | 25cpaid | -88.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b21…05ecbacked Yes | 2c | 6,406$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.54 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Yes | 7c | 5,919$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415.96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b61…8759backed No | 78c | 5,900$4,602 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,298 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbbe…3f9fbacked No | 79c | 5,854$4,630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,224.41 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 58cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x883b…61f6backed No | 78c | 5,850$4,563 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,287 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c72…683bbacked No | 78c | 5,800$4,524 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,276 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc063…2af9backed Yes | 3c | 5,573$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 3c | 5,360$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.76 | 237 | 7.2%17 W · 220 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe243…79f7backed Yes | 2c | 5,310$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb094…bf7fbacked Yes | 17c | 5,164$872 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$871.99 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -66.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e7…b74cbacked Yes | 2c | 5,140$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d0…af08backed Yes | 2c | 5,000$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | +4.7wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd352…4ad6backed Yes | 20c | 5,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.94 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -6.2wins | -0.20per pick | 39cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8451…d845backed Yes | 1c | 4,955$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e9…63d0backed No | 80c | 4,921$3,937 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$984.22 | 178 | 59.6%106 W · 72 L | +18.3wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +21%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e7…99cbbacked Yes | 1c | 4,912$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7423…3976backed Yes | 1c | 4,874$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3345…32a1backed Yes | 1c | 4,841$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49de…fa8abacked Yes | 1c | 4,816$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 2c | 4,794$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.24 | 119 | 0.8%1 W · 118 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 5cpaid | -85.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab78…fac0backed Yes | 5c | 4,744$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.58 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4acd…01a4backed Yes | 3c | 4,743$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b01…95a9backed Yes | 1c | 4,736$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.7 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 9cpaid | -90%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd40f…93eebacked Yes | 3c | 4,720$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29c9…c839backed Yes | 1c | 4,677$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e40…6799backed Yes | 1c | 4,577$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e66…41e7backed Yes | 1c | 4,572$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.04 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 1cpaid | +146.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4682…4adebacked Yes | 2c | 4,550$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d1…6f4cbacked Yes | 1c | 4,467$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0acf…2f1cbacked Yes | 1c | 4,417$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1560…1279backed Yes | 2c | 4,352$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.95 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.22per pick | 21cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x71a0…4350backed Yes | 1c | 4,299$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2a…65dcbacked Yes | 2c | 4,282$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.53 | 79 | 19%15 W · 64 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4518…9f15backed Yes | 1c | 4,240$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed Yes | 2c | 4,229$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.51 | 112 | 2.7%3 W · 109 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4289…6b52backed Yes | 30c | 4,224$1,267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,266.77 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x643b…cd1cbacked Yes | 2c | 4,199$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed Yes | 19c | 4,186$801 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$801.01 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3467…cf8dbacked Yes | 2c | 4,153$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.01 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58d6…925abacked Yes | 34c | 4,058$1,393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,393.46 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4398…775bbacked Yes | 1c | 4,022$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe15…14c0backed Yes | 1c | 4,000$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 2c | 3,968$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.96 | 134 | 3.7%5 W · 129 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 3,891$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.19 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc03c…a23cbacked Yes | 1c | 3,843$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f9b…eb64backed Yes | 10c | 3,740$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes | 1c | 3,700$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.4 | 124 | 3.2%4 W · 120 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed Yes | 1c | 3,528$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.78 | 123 | 4.1%5 W · 118 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -50%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3be…adc2backed Yes | 17c | 3,509$590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$589.53 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.16per pick | 32cpaid | -71.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b03…a61dbacked Yes | 1c | 3,491$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.91 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes | 2c | 3,426$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.42 | 51 | 0%0 W · 51 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes | 2c | 3,343$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.41 | 76 | 6.6%5 W · 71 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeae5…0720backed Yes | 1c | 3,333$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.81 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82c2…d174backed Yes | 1c | 3,303$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.12 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19ff…1df3backed Yes | 1c | 3,209$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…78f2backed Yes | 23c | 3,140$723 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$722.78 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3fc6…7affbacked Yes | 3c | 3,006$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Yes | 1c | 3,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 1c | 3,000$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 22 | 0%0 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfb4…6116backed Yes | 1c | 3,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch?this page
- MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1.5B one day after launch?Yes won
- MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch?Yes won
- MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?No won
- MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?No won
- MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?No won
- MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$600M one day after launch?Yes won
- MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$800M one day after launch?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.