Token Launches · resolved market
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x940f01421649348b09dbf72bfd90788b9513ee56d9a0e7532c45ecda1ecfc6b4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,655,420
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,391,672
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,655,420 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 1,669 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd293…8940backed Yes | 53c | 174,995$92,337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82,657.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +89.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9564…3a32backed No | 21c | 155,234$32,181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32,180.78 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6305…9d0bbacked No | 14c | 145,942$20,759 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,759.08 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | +7.5wins | +0.14per pick | 25cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b4…61f9backed No | 7c | 135,455$8,842 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,841.67 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb67…d696backed Yes | 47c | 128,375$59,771 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68,604.15 | 72 | 70.8%51 W · 21 L | +20.9wins | +0.29per pick | 42cpaid | +190%equal weight | 74+0.22 edge/pick |
| 0x5a1c…970abacked No | 16c | 119,858$18,686 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,685.7 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2061…8ec9backed No | 3c | 99,180$3,016 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,015.62 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.21per pick | 19cpaid | +73.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ee…9597backed No | 29c | 78,488$22,454 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22,454.18 | 162 | 47.5%77 W · 85 L | +13.9wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0108…0d26backed Yes | 71c | 76,852$54,808 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22,044.09 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc05…013abacked No | 21c | 73,783$15,161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,160.85 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +3.9wins | +0.30per pick | 39cpaid | +73.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xaf93…a757backed No | 12c | 68,333$8,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,199.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fd3…fec2backed No | 47c | 65,931$30,988 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30,987.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…be6cbacked No | 26c | 62,275$15,956 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,955.88 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc722…1334backed No | 8c | 59,033$4,580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,579.94 | 56 | 33.9%19 W · 37 L | +4.7wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa772…b445backed No | 28c | 45,564$12,677 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,676.6 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1711…78ecbacked No | 71c | 44,886$31,986 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31,985.61 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde26…2de2backed No | 21c | 44,564$9,351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,350.54 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ee2…bea6backed Yes | 61c | 41,980$25,610 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,370.18 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1dc…ff6cbacked No | 17c | 41,694$7,039 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,038.6 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.15per pick | 31cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1461…30a1backed No | 28c | 36,956$10,419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,418.75 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c95…30cbbacked No | 30c | 35,499$10,522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,522.15 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9dd…03abbacked Yes | 53c | 35,231$18,672 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,558.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2b9…d5babacked No | 29c | 34,775$10,205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,204.57 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d5…1119backed Yes | 52c | 34,125$17,787 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,337.84 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +69.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c4c…a5f0backed No | 30c | 31,150$9,345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,344.84 | 91 | 42.9%39 W · 52 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d4…781fbacked Yes | 53c | 30,700$16,271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,429 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3590…2a4ebacked No | 7c | 30,582$2,129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,129.1 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6c…7e66backed Yes | 74c | 30,000$22,068 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,931.72 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x014c…820cbacked No | 38c | 29,423$11,214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,214.3 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 28cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b9a…12a5backed No | 34c | 27,308$9,295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,295 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbcf7…b2bdbacked No | 21c | 26,370$5,614 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,613.84 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa173…3315backed No | 37c | 25,626$9,450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,450.37 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadc1…53a6backed Yes | 35c | 25,524$8,933 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,590.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +185.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc23…9297backed No | 12c | 25,000$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +2.2wins | +0.13per pick | 28cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc512…1a89backed No | 39c | 24,064$9,487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,487.41 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x55c2…a8c7backed No | 38c | 23,900$9,160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,159.98 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -3.3wins | -0.22per pick | 35cpaid | -79.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5e6f…c515backed No | 17c | 23,899$4,177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,177.45 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd2d…84e6backed No | 20c | 23,337$4,735 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,735.05 | 72 | 40.3%29 W · 43 L | +6.8wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe149…b66bbacked No | 16c | 22,039$3,535 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,535.05 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce1d…1b9bbacked Yes | 77c | 20,751$15,946 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,804.73 | 100 | 45%45 W · 55 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac9b…d4c5backed No | 32c | 20,496$6,605 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,605.01 | 128 | 40.6%52 W · 76 L | +13.8wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6ed7…0803backed No | 65c | 20,000$13,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x303d…a12abacked Yes | 59c | 19,863$11,710 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,153.34 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05ab…8145backed Yes | 46c | 19,862$9,122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,740.24 | 85 | 32.9%28 W · 57 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe88b…f99fbacked No | 29c | 19,666$5,776 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,775.93 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac1…0389backed Yes | 68c | 19,352$13,154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,197.56 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…03c5backed Yes | 73c | 19,087$13,980 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,106.47 | 76 | 57.9%44 W · 32 L | +8.9wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xeae5…0720backed Yes | 79c | 18,942$14,902 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,039.72 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e27…c659backed No | 23c | 18,309$4,267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,267.29 | 61 | 14.8%9 W · 52 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc903…b175backed Yes | 36c | 17,165$6,111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,053.94 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +5.3wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7791…af80backed No | 30c | 17,067$5,117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,116.67 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7996…b669backed Yes | 47c | 16,753$7,955 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,798 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89cd…4d7dbacked No | 22c | 15,864$3,473 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,472.87 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0d3…13d7backed Yes | 44c | 15,572$6,815 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,756.97 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 20cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 32c | 15,466$4,893 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,893.02 | 28 | 10.7%3 W · 25 L | -3.4wins | -0.12per pick | 23cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d85…e6f6backed No | 16c | 15,252$2,371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,371.11 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3379…f0b4backed No | 9c | 15,005$1,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,400.25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eed…acbebacked No | 13c | 15,000$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9411…63c7backed Yes | 57c | 15,000$8,565 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,434.18 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…f2b4backed No | 31c | 14,605$4,522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,522.38 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea81…81b9backed No | 36c | 14,036$5,046 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,045.82 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -55%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabbb…727abacked No | 22c | 14,000$3,088 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,087.89 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6276…2dd9backed No | 40c | 14,000$5,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,599.99 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 58cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbe…d65dbacked No | 37c | 13,755$5,075 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,074.64 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -40%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde28…a563backed No | 66c | 13,317$8,723 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,723.21 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -3.0wins | -0.21per pick | 28cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xadf4…997abacked No | 46c | 13,090$6,021 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,021.4 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x597e…cd70backed No | 70c | 12,667$8,840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,839.95 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8092…2bdbbacked No | 16c | 12,649$1,984 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,983.56 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a91…ac8fbacked Yes | 49c | 12,467$6,136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,331.43 | 37 | 75.7%28 W · 9 L | +7.8wins | +0.21per pick | 55cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…6a5cbacked No | 38c | 12,193$4,690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,689.9 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9eb5…c5f1backed Yes | 78c | 11,840$9,184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,656.05 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66d9…4f2fbacked Yes | 59c | 11,723$6,959 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,763.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +68.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f6…f699backed No | 27c | 11,644$3,086 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,085.93 | 238 | 41.2%98 W · 140 L | +25.1wins | +0.11per pick | 31cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x25b5…f536backed No | 29c | 11,614$3,368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,367.92 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8180…f4dabacked No | 5c | 11,484$629 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$628.82 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8133…3bb4backed Yes | 63c | 11,357$7,132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,224.98 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0bb…9205backed No | 9c | 11,000$990 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$990 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e9…63d0backed No | 60c | 11,000$6,652 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,652 | 178 | 59.6%106 W · 72 L | +18.3wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +21%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0826…0b32backed Yes | 67c | 10,965$7,313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,652.05 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -4.5wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe650…1450backed No | 67c | 10,890$7,296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,296.3 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x90ed…b5bcbacked No | 10c | 10,727$1,083 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,083.42 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 16cpaid | -86.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60d1…0c8fbacked No | 18c | 10,644$1,921 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,921.1 | 155 | 39.4%61 W · 94 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4902…7214backed No | 43c | 10,600$4,573 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,572.99 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +47.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5aff…7035backed No | 64c | 10,544$6,724 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,724.01 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0588…5596backed No | 18c | 10,436$1,899 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,899.06 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd90a…ad32backed No | 17c | 10,403$1,727 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,726.79 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.18per pick | 27cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc9…7552backed No | 27c | 10,316$2,788 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,788.35 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +4.6wins | +0.20per pick | 41cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfaab…e6f2backed Yes | 75c | 10,268$7,678 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,589.28 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6fbb…a41abacked No | 25c | 10,234$2,539 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,539.03 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23e2…eb2ebacked Yes | 51c | 10,222$5,263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,959.14 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f9…c5e8backed No | 44c | 10,200$4,488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,488 | 60 | 63.3%38 W · 22 L | +17.9wins | +0.30per pick | 34cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 73+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xaff3…6eccbacked No | 13c | 10,168$1,356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,356.02 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb119…f8cdbacked No | 35c | 10,152$3,523 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,523.29 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -3.7wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -74.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x77ab…5a1abacked No | 30c | 10,021$3,001 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,001.41 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc9e…ba88backed No | 38c | 10,000$3,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,800 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc1…686cbacked No | 11c | 10,000$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ca…b27abacked Yes | 75c | 9,874$7,410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,463.18 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f33…914ebacked No | 12c | 9,782$1,206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,206.02 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fa…177bbacked No | 41c | 9,727$4,030 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,030 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7202…e51abacked No | 13c | 9,521$1,272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,272.35 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch?this page
- MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1.5B one day after launch?Yes won
- MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?No won
- MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?No won
- MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?No won
- MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$600M one day after launch?Yes won
- MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch?No won
- MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$800M one day after launch?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.