Token Launches · resolved market
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2307312887c6de01a9f55b7b7afc7c4a0be8718d7d868280e7d898f0ea54f740
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,853,480
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,456,137
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,853,480 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 800 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xab51…2473backed Yes | 5c | 73,131$3,421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,421.46 | 134 | 22.4%30 W · 104 L | +12.7wins | +0.09per pick | 13cpaid | +175.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb0bf…9401backed Yes | 10c | 52,311$5,461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,461.48 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe551…0a67backed No | 46c | 49,667$22,947 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26,720.5 | 13 | 100%13 W · 0 L | +7.1wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +164.5%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x9377…c4f7backed Yes | 11c | 40,000$4,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,399.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…9573backed No | 80c | 36,287$28,890 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,397.35 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe714…d510backed Yes | 7c | 28,608$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa90a…041fbacked Yes | 51c | 25,000$12,742 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,742.04 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa925…e1c8backed Yes | 60c | 24,697$14,898 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,898.03 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 6c | 24,266$1,339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,339.03 | 328 | 3%10 W · 318 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb67…d696backed Yes | 7c | 24,167$1,629 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,628.79 | 72 | 70.8%51 W · 21 L | +20.9wins | +0.29per pick | 42cpaid | +190%equal weight | 74+0.22 edge/pick |
| 0xf74b…95cbbacked Yes | 6c | 24,156$1,495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,495.42 | 63 | 14.3%9 W · 54 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca5…8727backed Yes | 5c | 23,001$1,181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,181.32 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x240f…2334backed Yes | 8c | 22,813$1,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,900 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b7c…0c95backed Yes | 6c | 21,784$1,247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,247.49 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe330…2196backed Yes | 24c | 21,133$5,041 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,040.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…6cddbacked Yes | 7c | 20,526$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.31per pick | 32cpaid | +75.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7e5e…7315backed No | 43c | 20,000$8,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,399.98 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b17…abcdbacked Yes | 57c | 18,220$10,344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,344.08 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 46cpaid | -72.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa5bf…8763backed Yes | 5c | 17,988$870 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$870.14 | 53 | 32.1%17 W · 36 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 7c | 16,515$1,149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,149.19 | 28 | 10.7%3 W · 25 L | -3.4wins | -0.12per pick | 23cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0213…f7e3backed Yes | 14c | 16,177$2,305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,304.69 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +3.3wins | +0.13per pick | 30cpaid | +24%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d0c…6b78backed Yes | 16c | 15,861$2,515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,515.3 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +2.6wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3402…9446backed Yes | 7c | 15,000$1,110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,110 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | +5.0wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb41a…1935backed Yes | 2c | 14,755$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.2 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -2.9wins | -0.18per pick | 24cpaid | -91.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9564…3a32backed No | 42c | 14,718$6,161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,557.24 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c2…2d1cbacked Yes | 14c | 14,663$2,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,100 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -70.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26cf…c612backed Yes | 28c | 14,563$4,030 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,029.67 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x471b…b18fbacked Yes | 3c | 14,499$469 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$468.5 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bc3…3812backed Yes | 7c | 14,267$1,010 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,010.05 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6305…9d0bbacked No | 46c | 12,331$5,696 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,635.01 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | +7.5wins | +0.14per pick | 25cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf5eb…f269backed Yes | 54c | 12,000$6,495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,494.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…d434backed Yes | 43c | 11,619$5,017 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,017.17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11ab…c8a7backed Yes | 6c | 11,555$705 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$704.85 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca99…d9e7backed Yes | 22c | 11,322$2,464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,463.83 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe020…48fbbacked Yes | 54c | 11,284$6,114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,114.03 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 6c | 11,196$678 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$677.84 | 244 | 2%5 W · 239 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fca…f72ebacked Yes | 2c | 10,529$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.26 | 131 | 31.3%41 W · 90 L | +12.1wins | +0.09per pick | 22cpaid | +164.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8df3…2da1backed Yes | 6c | 10,277$593 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$593.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bff…ffbebacked No | 46c | 10,222$4,702 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,519.88 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ee9…ecd8backed Yes | 46c | 10,000$4,650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,649.99 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.28per pick | 42cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x08a0…b21ebacked Yes | 25c | 9,550$2,388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,387.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd2d…84e6backed No | 51c | 9,189$4,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,488.51 | 72 | 40.3%29 W · 43 L | +6.8wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe60f…dfdabacked Yes | 65c | 9,179$6,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,000 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 7c | 8,577$562 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$561.55 | 254 | 1.6%4 W · 250 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbba…dbffbacked Yes | 9c | 8,535$804 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$804.16 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe13b…8a63backed Yes | 37c | 8,146$2,978 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,977.95 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 20cpaid | -89.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0537…5b0fbacked Yes | 24c | 8,015$1,938 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,938.34 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa96c…d1c7backed Yes | 7c | 7,703$564 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$563.95 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x917b…6600backed No | 59c | 7,319$4,343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,975.62 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -25%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb04b…7128backed No | 79c | 7,278$5,750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,528.48 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1161…729abacked Yes | 28c | 7,177$1,995 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,994.88 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +35%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14d5…88cfbacked Yes | 8c | 7,000$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd588…cec0backed Yes | 6c | 6,843$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$439.9 | 85 | 21.2%18 W · 67 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43a6…8b32backed Yes | 6c | 6,723$417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416.83 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.18per pick | 55cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac80…97b1backed Yes | 53c | 6,327$3,354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,353.97 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.28per pick | 42cpaid | -79%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x608b…fbd6backed Yes | 47c | 6,326$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47c1…825fbacked Yes | 3c | 6,303$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.7 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | +4.9wins | +0.19per pick | 12cpaid | +180.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 6,273$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.88 | 206 | 1.9%4 W · 202 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +62.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x501a…5165backed Yes | 47c | 6,234$2,930 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,929.79 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x59b8…8139backed No | 50c | 6,211$3,118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,093.25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59c6…8332backed Yes | 8c | 6,082$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +42.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce1d…1b9bbacked Yes | 15c | 6,000$910 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$910 | 100 | 45%45 W · 55 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7040…81fabacked No | 62c | 5,891$3,643 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,247.81 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | +4.0wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +112.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc905…4dfcbacked Yes | 54c | 5,890$3,207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,207.29 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff04…d971backed Yes | 7c | 5,714$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +3.4wins | +0.24per pick | 11cpaid | +995.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7171…7af9backed Yes | 2c | 5,701$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.03 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 4cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x003b…3177backed Yes | 7c | 5,653$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +72.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8acb…f992backed Yes | 9c | 5,554$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c46…ae13backed Yes | 7c | 5,479$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.6wins | +0.33per pick | 30cpaid | +199.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xee92…eaa4backed Yes | 33c | 5,441$1,807 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,807 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -3.2wins | -0.32per pick | 42cpaid | -82.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes | 6c | 5,202$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310 | 76 | 6.6%5 W · 71 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57ea…e9afbacked Yes | 12c | 5,157$640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$639.61 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd45…3dd4backed No | 45c | 5,157$2,329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,827.36 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +83.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6193…a96cbacked No | 44c | 5,068$2,230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,838.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa772…b445backed No | 67c | 5,000$3,348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,652.01 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1398…a875backed No | 80c | 5,000$4,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000 | 13 | 100%13 W · 0 L | +6.4wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +129.3%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x94d4…2a42backed No | 33c | 5,000$1,650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,350 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16ce…815ebacked Yes | 6c | 5,000$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.27per pick | 33cpaid | +105.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7996…b669backed Yes | 7c | 4,843$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.11 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x407c…49aabacked Yes | 1c | 4,804$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.77 | 114 | 21.9%25 W · 89 L | +8.5wins | +0.07per pick | 14cpaid | +122.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x243c…2240backed Yes | 6c | 4,493$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.81 | 69 | 37.7%26 W · 43 L | +8.0wins | +0.12per pick | 26cpaid | +87.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3bef…f04ebacked Yes | 6c | 4,490$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.56 | 51 | 11.8%6 W · 45 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 5cpaid | -20%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 7c | 4,335$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.73 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8c…e19ebacked Yes | 6c | 4,212$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5de7…48bebacked No | 42c | 4,050$1,701 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,349 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf81c…4540backed Yes | 7c | 4,016$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf334…0674backed Yes | 10c | 3,978$404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$404.28 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cdf…9cbcbacked No | 75c | 3,700$2,775 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$925 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed Yes | 7c | 3,564$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.37 | 123 | 4.1%5 W · 118 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -50%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49d5…27a2backed Yes | 7c | 3,524$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.54 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes | 7c | 3,503$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.14 | 124 | 3.2%4 W · 120 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa951…8a2fbacked No | 52c | 3,501$1,830 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,670.41 | 69 | 31.9%22 W · 47 L | -5.2wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…be6cbacked No | 64c | 3,500$2,245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,255 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0cf5…c050backed Yes | 14c | 3,367$461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$461.41 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -78%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 6c | 3,295$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.57 | 134 | 3.7%5 W · 129 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6aa…ef25backed Yes | 16c | 3,219$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7997…04afbacked No | 54c | 3,180$1,726 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,453.97 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +105.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e6f…7651backed Yes | 9c | 3,050$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.74 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb668…ef2fbacked Yes | 26c | 3,040$786 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$785.74 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 39cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1dd…e4a3backed No | 50c | 3,000$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,500 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +3.9wins | +0.26per pick | 21cpaid | +90.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?this page
- MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1.5B one day after launch?Yes won
- MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch?Yes won
- MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?No won
- MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?No won
- MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$600M one day after launch?Yes won
- MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch?No won
- MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$800M one day after launch?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.