Token Launches · resolved market
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$800M one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc0336e4897d2d044c0bcc234f72248ef7db97dca69f0caf1666a67ca55034b65
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,636,669
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,777,038
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,636,669 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 503 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbadf…b7f9backed No | 0c | 116,830$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.83 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb67…d696backed Yes | 51c | 104,841$53,393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51,448.26 | 72 | 70.8%51 W · 21 L | +20.9wins | +0.29per pick | 42cpaid | +190%equal weight | 74+0.22 edge/pick |
| 0xb465…0d8dbacked No | 0c | 85,831$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.77 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 26cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9564…3a32backed No | 6c | 84,773$5,469 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,468.95 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2061…8ec9backed No | 1c | 78,886$421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421.07 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.21per pick | 19cpaid | +73.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x55c2…a8c7backed No | 16c | 53,935$8,837 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,836.96 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -3.3wins | -0.22per pick | 35cpaid | -79.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbe…d65dbacked No | 48c | 22,547$10,776 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,775.89 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -40%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b9a…12a5backed No | 31c | 20,019$6,141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,141.07 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x014c…820cbacked No | 5c | 18,510$961 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$961.22 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 28cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b87…0432backed No | 46c | 16,400$7,556 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,556.3 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc847…ef2cbacked No | 27c | 15,862$4,213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,213.39 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -61.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d5…1119backed Yes | 73c | 15,052$10,973 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,079.47 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +69.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac9b…d4c5backed No | 55c | 14,802$8,204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,204.49 | 128 | 40.6%52 W · 76 L | +13.8wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb04b…7128backed Yes | 64c | 14,504$9,295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,209.41 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0826…0b32backed Yes | 65c | 14,000$9,052 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,948.11 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -4.5wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x409f…543abacked No | 0c | 13,210$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.21 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a91…ac8fbacked Yes | 60c | 12,904$7,706 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,198.28 | 37 | 75.7%28 W · 9 L | +7.8wins | +0.21per pick | 55cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ee…9597backed No | 31c | 11,620$3,631 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,630.6 | 162 | 47.5%77 W · 85 L | +13.9wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc452…1cd2backed No | 44c | 10,974$4,879 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,878.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 64cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde26…2de2backed No | 21c | 10,917$2,253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,252.72 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe80f…3354backed Yes | 49c | 10,209$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,208.85 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…2cbfbacked Yes | 48c | 10,186$4,902 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,284.54 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc2b9…d5babacked No | 38c | 10,000$3,776 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,776.14 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…be6cbacked No | 38c | 10,000$3,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,799.98 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x25b5…f536backed No | 18c | 9,053$1,630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,629.54 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8133…3bb4backed Yes | 78c | 8,182$6,372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,809.84 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bc3…73d1backed Yes | 61c | 8,178$5,003 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,174.6 | 103 | 40.8%42 W · 61 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6138…97a0backed Yes | 63c | 8,040$5,105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,934.85 | 159 | 41.5%66 W · 93 L | +9.4wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc512…1a89backed No | 33c | 8,012$2,631 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,631.07 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 1c | 7,553$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.75 | 206 | 1.9%4 W · 202 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +62.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 25c | 7,282$1,790 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,789.97 | 28 | 10.7%3 W · 25 L | -3.4wins | -0.12per pick | 23cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x16ce…815ebacked Yes | 70c | 7,000$4,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,099.99 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.27per pick | 33cpaid | +105.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xefe9…7aaabacked No | 0c | 6,771$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.77 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a9a…467bbacked No | 42c | 6,647$2,821 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,820.93 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -4.2wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde28…a563backed No | 47c | 6,564$3,113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,112.75 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -3.0wins | -0.21per pick | 28cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec1…f20dbacked No | 31c | 6,480$2,037 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,037.2 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -2.7wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0e7c…4ca0backed Yes | 47c | 6,135$2,911 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,224.46 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 32cpaid | +60.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb562…f7e3backed No | 44c | 6,050$2,662 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,662 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed88…0dfdbacked No | 1c | 6,003$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.48 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa1…c691backed Yes | 51c | 5,732$2,920 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,811.99 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +4.9wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1711…78ecbacked No | 65c | 5,494$3,597 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,596.75 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e27…c659backed No | 22c | 5,350$1,161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,161.11 | 61 | 14.8%9 W · 52 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c12…748fbacked No | 0c | 5,292$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.54 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc456…8996backed No | 5c | 5,205$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.23 | 195 | 43.1%84 W · 111 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb2b…1921backed No | 24c | 5,132$1,225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,225.45 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +7.9wins | +0.16per pick | 42cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xee6b…cc03backed No | 21c | 5,000$1,059 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,058.74 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc903…b175backed Yes | 45c | 4,543$2,039 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,503.92 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +5.3wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2a33…c087backed Yes | 62c | 4,235$2,626 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,609.46 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +5.1wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x43a6…8b32backed No | 47c | 4,157$1,974 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,974.34 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.18per pick | 55cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x50c6…2c1cbacked Yes | 51c | 4,100$2,096 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,004 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 38cpaid | +55.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd72…b6c6backed Yes | 62c | 4,000$2,480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,520 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | -4.5wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb9a5…d93bbacked No | 48c | 3,993$1,928 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,927.87 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +102.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe650…1450backed No | 42c | 3,578$1,503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,502.93 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8eea…b229backed Yes | 44c | 3,400$1,496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,904 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc484…b7a0backed Yes | 60c | 3,400$2,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,360 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6569…1585backed No | 38c | 3,383$1,285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,285.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0bf…9401backed Yes | 47c | 3,349$1,574 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,774.9 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fcc…a034backed No | 6c | 3,333$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x243c…2240backed No | 7c | 3,330$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.85 | 69 | 37.7%26 W · 43 L | +8.0wins | +0.12per pick | 26cpaid | +87.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x19f1…5ef4backed No | 19c | 3,190$621 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$621.1 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa173…3315backed No | 49c | 3,064$1,493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,493.46 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b85…cd3abacked No | 50c | 3,064$1,540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,539.97 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd656…30d0backed No | 38c | 3,058$1,162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,161.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked No | 2c | 3,033$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.07 | 22 | 0%0 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 7c | 3,000$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 81 | 34.6%28 W · 53 L | -7.0wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8092…2bdbbacked No | 8c | 3,000$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.72 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f7a…d352backed No | 66c | 3,000$1,980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,980 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25dc…e33bbacked Yes | 59c | 2,997$1,777 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,219.96 | 145 | 48.3%70 W · 75 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe88b…f99fbacked No | 63c | 2,959$1,861 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,861.13 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0606…8de4backed No | 42c | 2,871$1,197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,196.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa772…b445backed No | 31c | 2,838$885 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$884.91 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb37b…b985backed No | 13c | 2,720$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.3 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 28cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94df…2dcebacked Yes | 60c | 2,645$1,596 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,049.26 | 54 | 59.3%32 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c25…c528backed No | 21c | 2,645$549 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$549.35 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.24per pick | 33cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3791…158fbacked No | 56c | 2,571$1,434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,434.31 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -4.0wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -36%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9d27…3a21backed Yes | 47c | 2,568$1,198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,369.84 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0d3…13d7backed Yes | 62c | 2,551$1,582 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$969.32 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 20cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7e…23ebbacked Yes | 76c | 2,500$1,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf1b2…a321backed Yes | 54c | 2,394$1,289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,105.22 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xabbb…727abacked No | 19c | 2,200$424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$424 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73b6…5db1backed No | 14c | 2,104$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.42 | 51 | 27.5%14 W · 37 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7b3…ea1bbacked No | 30c | 2,100$630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$630 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5dd…bcd9backed No | 40c | 2,100$840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$840 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c95…30cbbacked No | 34c | 2,100$707 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$706.8 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa394…89e9backed No | 42c | 2,000$840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$840 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -3.1wins | -0.34per pick | 46cpaid | -78.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0588…5596backed No | 11c | 2,000$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58a5…c4e3backed Yes | 76c | 2,000$1,520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | +4.4wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x160d…6f25backed No | 1c | 1,999$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.35 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.24per pick | 34cpaid | -85.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcf07…c770backed Yes | 58c | 1,975$1,147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$828.18 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0bc…e4eabacked No | 36c | 1,968$701 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$701.05 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 34cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a2…20aebacked No | 3c | 1,853$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -75.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b03…a61dbacked No | 34c | 1,832$621 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$620.74 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d3e…783bbacked Yes | 57c | 1,800$1,026 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$774 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +3.6wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x05ab…8145backed No | 50c | 1,691$847 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$846.88 | 85 | 32.9%28 W · 57 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5481…6b97backed No | 2c | 1,679$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e53…6ba9backed Yes | 67c | 1,628$1,089 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$539.38 | 77 | 45.5%35 W · 42 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadf4…997abacked No | 38c | 1,561$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa61a…3d71backed Yes | 67c | 1,492$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$492.34 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3057…7a96backed No | 35c | 1,440$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504 | 59 | 37.3%22 W · 37 L | -3.9wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e1b…92f7backed No | 35c | 1,429$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$800M one day after launch?this page
- MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1.5B one day after launch?Yes won
- MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch?Yes won
- MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?No won
- MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?No won
- MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?No won
- MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$600M one day after launch?Yes won
- MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.