TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Token Launches · resolved market

Will USD.AI launch a token by March 31?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$688,858
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$616,063

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $688,858 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 395 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Token Launches
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8ee2…bea6backed Yes71c107,558$76,880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76,880.394544.4%20 W · 25 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+10%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3e41…2d5fbacked Yes25c79,355$20,001 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,001.2910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x993f…3ee3backed No43c74,548$31,848 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42,699.851952.6%10 W · 9 L+1.4wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+101%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdec1…efe6backed Yes11c52,340$5,674 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,674.38450%2 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.15per pick35cpaid-14.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeb67…d696backed Yes16c43,002$6,855 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,855.217270.8%51 W · 21 L+20.9wins+0.29per pick42cpaid+190%equal weight74+0.22 edge/pick
0xff13…7c28backed No55c40,263$21,980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,282.661100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+83.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a9e…8716backed No30c26,625$8,038 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,586.22250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+65.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x68ce…74eabacked No54c18,595$10,024 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,571.881100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9dc5…5a8dbacked Yes35c18,431$6,464 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,4641127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick36cpaid-49.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x80af…0c19backed Yes1c18,323$261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261.1710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc701…33c1backed Yes45c16,938$7,650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,650.171478.6%11 W · 3 L+4.5wins+0.32per pick46cpaid+133.3%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xace2…9b56backed No27c15,999$4,302 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,697.67333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick41cpaid+24%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9505…01c1backed Yes6c14,548$893 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$892.710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8bc3…73d1backed No27c13,234$3,543 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,690.8210340.8%42 W · 61 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-16.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe86c…3f03backed No77c12,895$9,991 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,904.231100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x39a3…b218backed Yes79c12,582$9,999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,999.3210%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.79per pick79cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x08e5…e255backed Yes72c8,656$6,231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,230.981172.7%8 W · 3 L+2.9wins+0.26per pick46cpaid+116.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8670…ed5abacked Yes73c8,400$6,132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,132475%3 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick62cpaid+28.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf572…7458backed No29c6,466$1,860 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,605.021931.6%6 W · 13 L+1.9wins+0.10per pick22cpaid-35.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfb01…b811backed Yes57c5,822$3,339 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,338.57333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.33per pick66cpaid-56.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x63e0…bfd9backed No19c5,253$998 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,254.8425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick19cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x413f…47f3backed No48c4,998$2,399 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,598.711643.8%7 W · 9 L+1.2wins+0.07per pick36cpaid+9.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes32c4,070$1,290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,290.125422%56 W · 198 L-9.0wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-34.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe79c…c715backed No46c3,990$1,841 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,149.324131.7%13 W · 28 L+2.8wins+0.07per pick25cpaid+15.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc456…8996backed No79c3,659$2,882 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$776.9519543.1%84 W · 111 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-17.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad14…ce36backed Yes4c3,600$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.6540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-41.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x15ce…03c5backed No19c3,388$652 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,735.767657.9%44 W · 32 L+8.9wins+0.12per pick46cpaid+20.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x350e…7528backed Yes8c3,163$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae7f…d4febacked Yes44c3,058$1,348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,3481258.3%7 W · 5 L+3.5wins+0.29per pick30cpaid+657.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x25dc…e33bbacked No41c3,004$1,217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,787.2114548.3%70 W · 75 L+5.8wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-2.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x838a…add1backed Yes72c2,582$1,859 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,859.0510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.72per pick72cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9034…f7dfbacked No10c2,200$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,9804520%9 W · 36 L-2.6wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-37.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd54d…66e2backed Yes19c2,041$395 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$395.1720%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf6cb…3f69backed Yes61c2,012$1,234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,234.1413134.4%45 W · 86 L-3.4wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-22.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x74bc…124abacked No9c1,975$169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,806.110338.8%40 W · 63 L+10.9wins+0.11per pick28cpaid+26.2%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0xce1d…1b9bbacked Yes33c1,834$601 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$600.6810045%45 W · 55 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-15%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa160…7b21backed No48c1,809$873 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$935.61369.2%9 W · 4 L+3.0wins+0.23per pick46cpaid+50.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x80ee…5cf0backed Yes78c1,730$1,357 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,357.152045%9 W · 11 L+0.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-4.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc101…e6d1backed No9c1,723$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,574.7618144.8%81 W · 100 L+23.4wins+0.13per pick32cpaid+55.1%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0x7e48…c23bbacked Yes9c1,626$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.8250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick25cpaid+21.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b74…93f7backed No16c1,615$254 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,360.73540%2 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick31cpaid+59.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa92d…4e71backed No75c1,573$1,173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$400.352227.3%6 W · 16 L-3.0wins-0.14per pick41cpaid-56.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1ee1…ad35backed Yes1c1,562$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.181050%5 W · 5 L+1.4wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+51.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa2d1…62c2backed Yes57c1,537$876 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$875.968558.8%50 W · 35 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-14%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc0b6…e7b3backed No65c1,521$991 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$530.221100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x19a7…55fcbacked No20c1,504$301 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,203.21040%4 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick43cpaid+3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x29d4…41fbbacked Yes4c1,500$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$602360.9%14 W · 9 L+2.8wins+0.12per pick49cpaid+21.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1639…1a62backed Yes78c1,468$1,140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,140650%3 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-17.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No54c1,411$758 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$653.55945.8%27 W · 32 L-5.9wins-0.10per pick56cpaid-29.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe87e…4f70backed No13c1,410$177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,232.52875%6 W · 2 L+2.5wins+0.31per pick44cpaid+134.6%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xfd42…8895backed No11c1,385$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,231.521323.1%3 W · 10 L+1.1wins+0.09per pick14cpaid+54.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd9c0…dc6fbacked No53c1,373$726 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$646.992100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+70.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe1b7…d913backed No9c1,345$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,223.41250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+453.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xed79…1e49backed Yes9c1,300$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.45742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.15per pick28cpaid+345.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1ee9…197fbacked No64c1,271$811 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$459.882638.5%10 W · 16 L-1.9wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-35%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x202d…c3b1backed Yes67c1,219$821 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$820.830%0 W · 3 L-1.9wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xc0b2…9d96backed Yes77c1,206$929 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$928.6220%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x695c…10a1backed No20c1,204$243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$961.58933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+22.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d80…ee14backed No21c1,200$254 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$945.99955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.13per pick42cpaid+52.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x45b2…cbc1backed No25c1,194$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$894.312020%4 W · 16 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick15cpaid+47.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9f50…9451backed No16c1,191$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,003.551100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.84per pick16cpaid+534.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2e2d…f0cabacked Yes38c1,180$448 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$447.7837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.16per pick54cpaid-47.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa297…2574backed Yes2c1,157$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.4820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x61e1…c580backed No28c1,121$309 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$811.06650%3 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+10.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb3e6…3218backed No8c1,110$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,020.742665.4%17 W · 9 L+5.6wins+0.22per pick44cpaid+268.2%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes5c1,099$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.521541.9%3 W · 151 L-5.3wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-86.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5a79…6296backed Yes71c1,000$714 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$714.21757.1%4 W · 3 L0.0wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc934…99e7backed No9c1,000$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9104219%8 W · 34 L-3.1wins-0.07per pick26cpaid-4.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3913…9bddbacked No20c977.63$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$777.63785.7%6 W · 1 L+2.3wins+0.32per pick53cpaid+89.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9efe…d947backed No21c967$203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$763.93333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.22per pick55cpaid+58.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xde9f…cd36backed No36c966$348 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$618.241100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.64per pick36cpaid+177.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7155…d866backed No14c929$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$798.941100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.86per pick14cpaid+614.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed No7c911.94$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$843.882333.4%8 W · 225 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-64.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c2e…e025backed No31c888$276 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$611.851100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.69per pick31cpaid+221.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3acc…973dbacked No16c885$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$745.751100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.84per pick16cpaid+535.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0ad5…6f41backed No15c875$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$743.75250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick27cpaid+233.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84f3…e6aabacked Yes76c874$664 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$664.2410%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.76per pick76cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe9c0…186dbacked No5c856.86$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$813.27785.7%6 W · 1 L+2.3wins+0.34per pick52cpaid+300.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd22a…ac22backed Yes77c850$657 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$656.6210%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.77per pick77cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaae3…2c9dbacked Yes15c848.33$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1301275%9 W · 3 L+4.9wins+0.41per pick34cpaid+2,349.2%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x268d…1735backed Yes5c845.31$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.7510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x090a…cd55backed Yes79c839$663 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$662.81650%3 W · 3 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-17%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe8d5…1caebacked Yes78c830$647 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$647.410%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.78per pick78cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdbbe…f1d5backed No17c827$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$685.21333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick41cpaid+94.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5544…802abacked Yes64c822$526 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$526.0810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2c9a…f183backed No9c821$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$747.111100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.91per pick9cpaid+1,011.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9b0e…8884backed No29c817.83$239 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$579.08966.7%6 W · 3 L+2.2wins+0.24per pick43cpaid+34.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xaa8d…fc01backed No23c816$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$628.321100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.77per pick23cpaid+334.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a92…d2e9backed No15c813$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$691.051100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.85per pick15cpaid+566.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7d26…a7d1backed No22c798.19$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$620.419645.8%44 W · 52 L+6.8wins+0.07per pick39cpaid+0.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x252c…391abacked No24c792$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$601.921100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.76per pick24cpaid+316.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbcac…f545backed No9c785$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$714.351100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.91per pick9cpaid+1,011.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes7c783.94$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.092917.2%5 W · 24 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick14cpaid-40.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xffa1…15bdbacked Yes76c783$595 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$595.0810%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.76per pick76cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2064…e748backed Yes76c773$587 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$587.4820%0 W · 2 L-1.5wins-0.77per pick77cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xb86e…e0ecbacked No22c772$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$602.161100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.78per pick22cpaid+354.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xde37…f6e9backed Yes14c750$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.6520%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfc05…f600backed Yes71c747.06$532 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$531.668421.4%18 W · 66 L+0.3wins0.00per pick21cpaid+37%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x22f2…90d7backed No9c716$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$651.562100%2 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.79per pick21cpaid+607.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8745…4805backed Yes66c690$455 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$455.410%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.